Dangerous55019

Evening everyone Right... Last night I had a look at what the CFS V2 was forecasting for this coming autumn, so I thought this evening I'd have a look at what the Canadian Cansips model is showing for September to November... This far out it is only for fun, but hey, isn't that what it's all about? September... So again, this model is showing the same as the CFS V2 and going for a nice warm and settled September... Hopefully providing those pleasant misty mornings and evenings, as the days get shorter. October... So October is showing a very weak area of low pressure over the bulk of England and Wales, but on the other hand average precipitation, with ever so slightly above average temperatures... Probably due to the NW/SE angle of the jetstream. Certainly not a washout, but possibly q bit blustery from time to time... And after all this is October we're talking about And finally November... Sooooooo, for November, it shows a notable area of low pressure, just off the west of Ireland, with average temperatures, and below average rain fall... I'm wondering is this model has picked up on a couple of big storms that could rattle in interspersed with high pressure... Blustery followed by find settle and hopefully a few foggy misty days? ... I'll take that

Evening @CreweCold Ermmmm... You've actually posted charts for December 2017 and January 2018... And this is the Autumn thread. Lol

After the dull grey wetness of yesterday, this afternoon has provided some surprisingly good convection. Unlikely to go bang around here, but still nice to see.

Evening everyone, as promised here is a look at what the CFS V2 model is showing for this autumn... So here is what the CFS V2 is showing for September... As we can see, its showing an area of high pressure stretching from Greenland, over Iceland, and down over the UK, if this is true (remember this is a long range model) then this would probably be fetching the winds in from the east/north east, which ties in with the drier than average rain fall chart... But remember the peak of the heat will hopefully be over, so hence not than much of a warmer than average temperature anomaly. Right... October... As we can see, there is an area of high pressure just to the north of us here in the UK... At this time of year I think this could fetch us those misty foggy day days, along with some beautiful sunny days as well... Hopefully to get those autumn colours to there absolute best. And November... Yet again, high pressure is right over the to of us here in the UK!! So I'd say lots of potentially frost and foggy days here. I know it says warmer than average... But with high pressure sat right over us, it would soon cool off at night... I just hope that we're not staring down the barrel of a gloomfest with this chart... Fog is atmospheric... Dull slate grey skies? No thank you.

Evening @MP-R Thank you. I remember 2004 - 2006 very well, I remember watching on the web everyone else getting the storms, and thinking 'What's happened?' It was such a relief when that storm in 2007 came along to break the drought. Yes!! The 3rd and 4th of July 2001, what a fantastic time for storms that was... I hope we see something like that again

Evening @Dami I totally agree, autumn is the best time of year for me as well You'd love it around here, being with horses, you tend to live in boots... As the horses tend to plodge the ground up... Plus its always nice to walk through the fallen leaves. And swerving swiftly back on topic... After I've had me tea, I'll have a look at what the CFS and the Canadian Cansips models are showing for this coming autumn.

Whilst walking down to say good morning to the 'orses, I saw my first Lord and Ladies plant of the season today, with big green juicy berries on it... Always a good harbinger of the season to come.

YAY!! The autumn thread!! Autumn is my favourite time of year Right I've absolutely no idea what 2017 will give us this autumn, so this is just purely hope-casting... I'm hoping for a pleasant and sunny September, with lots of cool nights and misty mornings and hopefully a few last remaining summer thunderstorms, followed by an October that continues the cooling trend, and allows the misty mornings to slowly start developing into a foggy day or two about the middle of the month, before giving way to those misty start and end sunny days with that misty smokey golden haze to the air especially on the run up to Halloween. As the light in September and October is like no other time of the year, especially with the trees being on the turn. As for November, once the glory of the autumn colours are over, I hope we see a few big wind storms, as I does enjoy wrapping up and pulling my boots on for a nice long walk on a good ole blustery, late autumn day... Interspersed with many more misty mornings and evenings with that beautiful light that only a low sun in the sky can bring. Oh I'm getting all misty and dewy eyed just thinking about it. Whatever happens I just hope it doesn't turn into a mild, dull, grey, cloudy borefest like 2011 and 2015. And thank you @Turnedoutniceagain for starting this thread and getting my Tuesday off to a happy start.

Guilty M'lud... That was me, because I committed the cardinal sin of throwing the towel in on that snowless and (virtually) stormless bore fest that was last winter, and deep down I wanted get back to this time of year when we run into autumn once again, with its wonderful colours and smells that only come at this time of year. I have learnt my lesson... I hope.

Without going through my weather records to give exact figures, there does appear to have been some strange shift that has occurred. For this area (of which I've lived since I was little) back in the mid 70s onward we used to get one good big thunderstorm a year... No records to back this up, just purely from memory... Which admittedly is a bit foggy with the mists of time. By the time we got to 1983 to 1989 we used to get some really big cracking thunderstorms about the end of May time... What would normally happen is we'd get a brief taste of summer (27 - 28'C) for about a week and then it would go bang big time. Then along came 1990... And all we had one Friday morning was darkening skies ans two very distant rumbles of thunder, and that was that for the year. 1991 I know we had a storm, but for the life of me I can't remember. 1992 Now this year produced a wonderfully spiky storm one Sunday morning, I swear it was an MCS, as it started at about 11.00 in the morning and was still rumbling on at 15.00 in the afternoon!! That Sunday evening was wonderfully misty as a result of that Storm. 1993 Now this year gave us a cluster of spiky little storms, all at about 19.00 in the evening, some of the lightning strike were that close you could hear the fizzing sound!! Now then I remember a monster of a storm on night, but for the life of me I can't remember if it was 1994 or 1995. Either way, I remeber the day starting off just dull and grey, but by the time I'd finished work the heat humidity had gone through the roof, and the sky had an orange cast too it... By about 21.00 a storm started to break, what I didn't realise at the time was this little storm was to be the warm up act!! The main storm then exploded into life at around 01.00 right the way through till 05.00... What a night that was!! The years through 1996 to 2000 we had one small storm per year... 2001 This year produced the last 'BIG' old skool thunderstorm that I remember... It started at about 19.00 on Tuesday evening in July(?) and all hell let loose for the next few hours, it was superb 2002 - 2003 We had our annual storm, but nothing big. Then along come 2004... OMG what a horrible virtually thunderless year that was for us... One distant clap of thunder one Sunday and that was that!! But I do remember seeing some beautiful convective cloudscapes though as everyone else got the storms be we didn't around here. 2005 -2006 Again, just one bang wonders for the year... I'd class these three years as almost totally thunderless. 2007 The washout summer... One sunny afternoon, having just about given up on thunder due to the previous three years, we had a rather pleasant little storm pass right over head... Just a single cell that lasted for about half an hour or so, but it was so nice to see after the thundery drought. 2008 - 2014 Something had altered, we were now getting storms regularly again, but instead of the one big storm per year, we seemed to be getting several small storms per year, from, one flash, one bang wonders, to single cell storms. 2015 Two very memorable storms this year - the one at the beginning of July, and the one on the 22nd August... Oh to relive those storms again 2016 Loads of thunderstorms early in June, along with the one flash, one bang wonders that started in January, and then a small cluster around the end of August and early September. And finally here we are in 2017, again we had the small one flash one bang wonders, and I was able to get that storm as it passed right over head around the solstice. But there doesn't seem to be the big storms any more... And I don't know why. So to sum things up, I've seen an increase in the number of thunder days, but the type of storms that we get has altered dramatically.

There looks to be a bit of convection going on to the south east of Chester at the moment.

Evening @Chris.R Yoy were absolutely spot on mate... To be honest, when I was out earlier and that cooling north west breeze kicked in, I knew deep down it was going to be a bust for me. Ahh well, the chase and fun of the chase was fun whilst it lasted. As you say, Monday looks interesting at the moment... Maybe we'll get lucky on that one.

And that's it from me for today folks... We've brewed up everything we can around here and sent it eastwards. As you can see from these two photos, the rear of the grey unstable skies heading east... And the clear blue skies out to my west that say it's game over until next time. But good luck to everyone else with this today, and over and out from storm starved in North East Wales.

I have to be honest it's now or never for this part of the world today, if storms are gonna happen... And sadly I think it's gonna be a bust for this area. But on the other hand, it's nice to see the strong and sharp convective cloudscapes rather than the weak and fluffy convective skies that seem to have plagued this year so far. But after a little four mile walk I got back into the road where I live, and saw the rear of this little beauty over towards Chester. Then as I got home, I saw this little beasty brewing up to my north west. So although today could well be a bust for me, it looks like this area is the breeding ground for the storms that are heading east! As ever I shall keep you all posted.

Towers starting to go up now... The sky is very unstable looking around here... Very warm, but a most pleasant cooling breeze has picked up out of nowhere. ... Now time for a spot of lunch and watch how this develops.

So I've decided to pack some of my home made lasagna and head out across the fields to see what's happening... I can think of worse places to have lunch, whilst this lot hopefully develops.

Thank you @karyo ... T'is the view from my front garden. Things are frothing up even more now. Very hot and humid around here now.

Convective Sky Watch Update. This is my current view over to my west... Looking at the Clwydian Range.

Morning @Carl46Wrexham I'll take a 50% risk.

Very warm and humid here now, and in the past ten minutes or so, this little beauty has appeared out of nowhere to my west and is rising.

Convective Sky Watch Update. Thats better... The grey crud is now burning off nicely... Now for the sun to do it's job and start getting everything as hot and humid as possible.

Convective Sky Watch. The sun is now trying to break through this mid level crud... Still lots of accas about.

Let me see if I can pull up some Skew-T charts, as they are often the best way to check in situations like this

Right!! *said in a brisk and business like fashion* Morning everyone Well the day has arrived, as per my earlier post we've got loads of ACCAS around this neck of the woods this morning But due to the hit and miss nature of storms (unless its an MCS or supercell) then they really could breakout anywhere. Here are the latest charts from today's 00z GFS run from 06.00 - Midnight. A lot of this today is gonna come down to now casting, watching weather/storm radars etc, and I always find that an AM/MW radio is always a handy tool to use as well. Good luck to everyone with this today, stay safe and lets hope that this turns into a memorable day for all of the right reasons. Happy hunting folks.

Morning @Chris.R I honestly don't mate... My own personal gut feeling on this is that we're certainly in with a 50/50 chance on this today... So fingers and everything else crossed.