Dangerous55019

Hiya @Carl46Wrexham i've got me eye on it mate Although I have to say that for me this storm is... Well... Quite underwhelming. Lol

The sky is flickering now along with distant grumblings of thunder.

Afternoon @SarahWxm Sadly it looks to be heading towards the Liverpool - Southport area. But don't loose hope... As more storms could fire from the south and head Northwards.

WOO HOO!! Distant Thunder!! Looks like it's all kicking off again over the Dee estuary. Good luck everyone with this.

Does help if I put the lightning chart up as well! Lol

Afternoon @Devon donut The heaviest rain is currently less than ten miles to my west... And by the looks of it electrically it's getting closer! Although sadly I've heard no thunder as yet.

The haze is starting to clear here now... and I can just see a tower going up to my North (looking towards Liverpool - Manchester direction). Still very warm and sticky... But with a gusty warm breeze.

Although I should point out, just a few miles further west than I am currently @Frosty.. Lol.

I've got me eye on it @karyo Its currently the other side of the Clwydian Range... But I can see the dark skies.

Ahhhh... Edison Lighthouse - Love Grows... A true 70s classic song Sorry, off topic there (ish) but I've just driven into work listening to Gold on the cars MW/AM radio, and there were quite a few sharp sferic crackles on the old wireless... So something's about. I'm probably picking up that storm that's over Snowdonia at the moment. Its very warm and muggy here at the moment, but still with that notable southerly breeze. Plus the sun has just come out... Oh boy is it hot in the sun!

Afternoon @karyo The wind is very warm here but dropping... And the hazy sun is getting hotter... Fingers crossed that this could all come together for us. Afternoon @Supacell Ahhh yes, I remember that day very well, this was the legacy of the previous nights storms that I saw before heading off to work... And yes the sky was really that colour, it was an incredible sight. Plus we even managed a high elevation storm later on in the evening as well. Here's hope for something even better today.

Skies are just dull and grey here at the moment... The sun is trying to burn through... Its warm, but nothing exceptional... Its also really quite breezy. We really need the sun to break though this grey crud, thus allowing the heat and humidity to build, and then hopefully... For some reason this setup is reminding me of the 22nd of August 2015... Nothing really cleared around here until 14.00 in the afternoon... It was a very hot and humid afternoon... But then oh boy did it go bang in the evening.

I didn't want to clog up this forum last night, as there was so much going on... But last night whilst out with the dog, I saw the first signs of instability in the atmosphere over these parts. Certainly no guarantee of a storm, but a good and encouraging sign.

Morning all WOW!! What a day yesterday turned into for you folks down south! I hope that everyone is safe and with no damage to report, although I have read about and seen whats happened to those poor folks in Coverack, Cornwall. Today the main interest moves north wards, as normal I'm using the Cape and LI charts from the 00z run from GFS. Fingers crossed that everyone who wants a good storm today gets something (myself included) As always check the Skew-T charts, storm radar, and of course this forum. But good luck to everyone with this today, and lets hope that this delivers.

Morning all For what it's worth, here is my daily look at the Cape and LI charts from the 00z run on the GFS for today. Now although this doesn't cover my area, there is a lot of potential further south. I'm starting off todays look at the charts from 09.00 this morning and carrying on up to midnight. As with always on these things please use the Skew-T charts for your area, watch the sky, and storm radar, and also this forum... As once again it'll come down to Nowcasting once things start to kick off; which hopefully they will. For those of us further north, tomorrow is the main interest, and I'll try and post something up later about that, plus I don't want to confuse it with todays fun down south But good luck to everyone with this today and hopefully you'll get the good show that we all want

*Bows* Thank you @Letitsnowyorkshire Its my favourite season as well Personally I can't wait for the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness to begin again.

Afternoon all I'm a bit short on time today, so hence a short post... Right as normal, I'm using the 00z run for consistency, and I've cherry picked these two charts... Now the one thing that strikes me looking at these (or certainly the top chart) is the stupidly high Cape and LI figures forecast for Northern France (Cap in place?) but when you look at the storm risk charts, its looking like the English Channel could be the prime place to be! So for Tuesday, being as its only tomorrow, I'd say anywhere along the South coast (from Cornwall to Kent) could hopefully get a really impressive light show. And finally, I have cherry picked this chart for Wednesday... This shows the storm potential moving northwards. I personally think that these will be home grown storms, whether or not these will be homegrown MSC or Super cells, I dunno. But I do think that for the rest of the UK that Wednesday shows the most potential. I'll post tomorrow when hopefully the details will finally start to get nailed on, but I'm really hoping that this could be the big thundery breakdown that we're all craving. Sorry if this post seems rushed only I'm typing at one hell of speed here, and I do hope that you're all able to read this at the same speed as I've typed it. Lol

Thank you @Nick L I second everything you say there, autumn is a truly beautiful season, hence its my favourite time of the year.

Morning @seaside 60 We had loads of misty mellow days here last year, and it looked and felt wonderful I just hope we get more like that this year as well.

Morning @MP-R Ahh yes... The clapped out remains of hurricane Bertha in August 2014... yes, it did stir the atmosphere up a bit. Lol Personally I've got no problem about September having become an extension of summer, as with the shorter days, and the misty starts to the days, there is a different feel to things when compared to say July... Its like enjoying the last gasp of summer before things really change. I remember those cloudscapes of October 2014, they were indeed stunning. Plus I agree, more frost late autumn, and a few more gales come November time. And, and just for good measure... Here are a few of the misty, foggy pics that I manage to take last year... I do hope we get more days like this in the coming autumn... Forgive the pun, but I'm getting all misty eyed thinking about it. Lol

Evening @summer blizzard 2014 was a lovely autumn around these parts, and I distinctly remember that in August (yes I know that's a summer month) that once it had gone 18.00 in the evening, a noticeable cooling freshness descended... It was like autumn reaching out... And as I say, the autumn that followed was lovely 2009 was also pleasant autumn around these parts as well, as was 2005 ... BANK! Evening @stainesbloke Seconded, thirded and fourthed with everthing you've said there.

After a bit of a grey start, I have to say what an absolutely beautiful summers day it turned into Now I know many will disagree with, but I found it perfect, almost clear blue skies with just a few odd bits of cloud around, loads of pleasant sunshine, and plenty warm enough, without the crippling heat... If the rest of summer 2017 carries on like this then you shall hear no complaints from me.

Morning all Well here we are once again, staring down the barrel of yet another potentially thundery breakdown... So for consistency I am again using the latest 00z run from the GFS... Lets start the ball rolling on this coming Tuesday... The one thing that strikes me looking at these charts is that it looks to be an extremely promising event for the South West of the UK, but as always please check the Skew-T charts on the day as this could all still change. But at the moment, its looking good And now onto Wednesday... Now then, I've covered all of Wednesday with these charts... Now then, the one thing that strikes me looking at these charts is that there is quite a discrepancy between the Cape/LI charts on the left and the storm risk charts on the right. But this is still five days away, so I'm not too concerned about this at the moment, as potential showing is potential showing. As always check the Skew-T charts on the day and also use storm radar, now casting, praying to the weather gods etc nearer the time. But fingers crossed that this could hopefully be the 'BIG' thundery breakdown that so many of us are craving.

Just been out with the hound (yes I know it 05.00 in the morning), but I have to say how much noticeably darker it is this week when compared to this time last week! ... And yes I know it's cloudier as well... Just another sign of the small changes on the run towards autumn

Evening @Don I see where you're coming from, but remember these are long range forecast models, and as such they could be right, but they could be wrong. Just look at how the GFS along with the ECMWF, and the UKMeto model all disagree at a much closer time scale. I have seen these long range models hit a certain weather event smack on the head... But have got the forecast for the month as a whole totally wrong. As I say, this is only for a bit of fun to see what might happen this autumn... Plus as we all know, Mother Nature can catch everyone, and every thing out. So personally I'd say don't worry about it, as everything is still all to play for as regards this coming autumn.