Dangerous55019

The mid level fog here has cleared a bit, and lots of ACCAS visible. Its an encouraging sign at this hour of the day.

JACKPOT!! Well, as far as today goes anyway... I've just seen these accas clouds to my south, heading west to east... 95% of the time when these appear the day before, we normally get a storm of some description the following day. ... Let's just say this has given me a bit more hope for tomorrow.

That's really not looking promising @Dami But before you give up hope altogether, here is the latest charts that I can see on here from the 12z GFS run.

Ok... I've just had a look at what the good ole UK Met Office has to say about tomorrow... So I entered 'Mold' first of all, as it only five minutes walk from my house, and i over look it in the bottom of the valley... ... And oh dear ... So then I entered the city of 'Chester' as a location... Which is only about 10/15 minutes drive from here, and this is what I saw... ... Well, lets just say that I filled the car up with go go juice today Personally I dunno, but I'm not giving up on this just yet... For my area I'd say its 50/50... And that's better than nothing, so lets see what tomorrows charts bring

Convective Cloudwatch Update... Whilst I'm certainly not expecting anything this evening, I find that skies like this the night before have always given me a 50/50 chance of something the following day.

Not the best picture in the world I know, but there are strong convective cloudscapes forming over to my East... Towards Cheshire.

Morning all Time once again for my morning look at what the good ole 00z run from the GFS is forecasting... Well, from a totally IMBY perspective, today has totally dropped off the radar, which to be honest, at such a close stage has come as a little bit of a surprise, but hey these things happen. So all eyes on tomorrow... It is looking potentially really quite juicy. Lets just hope that the charts keep on improving for all of us

Morning all Well, as I kinda though would happen, the carts I posted up yesterday for Friday, Saturday and Sunday have fallen off the radar. But the good news is that Thursday is now starting to look like it could be game on!... With a little bit of potential on Wednesday as well!! As usual I have cherry picked the most juicy looking charts from the 00z run of the GFS. So lets start with tomorrow, Wednesday... Its looking like a line from North Wales, and across Merseyside, Manchester, and across the Pennies into South Yorkshire, the Peak District, Nottinghamshire and through into Linconshire which could be of interest. ... Even if it doesn't go bang, it should hopefully give us some nice convective cloudscapes And then comes Thursday... Now this starts to look really quite juicy from an early stage and then gets better and better for a massive swathe of England and Wales! Plus for those of you in the South East, I'd say that there is a possibility of a Kent Clipper in the early hours of Friday. As usual, still too far out to call, so the Skew-T charts will as always be the best way to check, but as @Andy Bown has already said "The pressure is lowering, so hopefully there shouldn't be a cap in place". Fingers crossed that this week could hopefully produce something really quite memorable for us all

Morning all Well, yet again the good ole GFS is once again showing the possibility of some storm potential for a reasonable chunk of the UK. Now then... As normal I have cherry picked the most juicy looking charts available from the 00z GFS run, from this coming Wednesday to next Sunday! Now the charts for Wednesday and Thursday are the ones to watch, the rest is just eye candy, but worth keeping an eye on at this stage. The thing that cheers me up looking at these is that they are showing much lower cape figures than a couple of weeks ago, so hopefully not another capping event. But as always, keep a close eye on the Skew-T charts, as they'll give you a better idea as to if its gonna go bang. So here's hoping that we can all enjoy some decent thundery action this coming week.

By the way I meant to say thread, not threat... Sorry about that @Carl46Wrexham, only I suffer with dyslexic fingers, end the edit button has disappeared.

Were do I start on this? So many to choose from and that I'd like to re-experience I'll start with the epic thunderstorm on the 1st July 2015, after such a hot and humid day I'd just about thrown the towel in (storm wise) and then the 'beast broke out at about 22.10, and what a storm it was!! ... We had several other storms that week as well There are many other good storms that I'd like to revisit, but I can't remember the dates off the top of my head, but I'm going back to the 1980s, 90s, and early 2000s. The next would be the fine sunny day of the 27th February 2013... After another long run of dull grey skies with nothingness, the sun finally appeared, but there was a beautiful, hazy, golden smokey appearance to the air that day... T'was just beautiful There are also several big windstorms, from Storm Doris earlier this year, to the storm of October 27th 2002, and the infamous Hebridean Hurricane of January 2005... My mind goes a bit foggy after that. Talking of fog, I also enjoy a good misty, foggy autumnal morning/day... Sooooooo atmospheric, we used to get some really good fogs around here in the 70s, 80s and early 90s. For cold and snow, I'd have to go back to the overnight snow event of the 19th-20th December 2009... Very cold, a reasonable covering of snow, and a beautifully clear and sunny day, with heavy snow shower... Perfect winters day for me No doubt I'll add more as the mists of time clear through my foggy mind. By the way, top marks to @Carl46Wrexham for this threat

Evening @Nick L I just wish it had been the same around here. Yes the temps were in the low to mid twenties, but round here all we've had is an ensuing gloomfest feeding straight in off the Irish sea. Sunday evening the skies did clear, and what a lovely sunset we had... Even a nice sunny start to Monday... But it didn't last, the concrete grey skies arrived by early afternoon, and that was the last time that we saw the sun around here. Tuesday it started to rain and hasn't stopped since. In fact as I type, we have still got torrential drizzle. Its just been a totally depressing week around here weatherwise.

Dear summer 2017, Would it be possible to have the refreshing temperatures of this week, coupled up with the dry sunny conditions of last week please? Only I've now wasted almost a complete week off of my holidays waiting for the rain to stop. Your sincerely. Disgruntled and Grumpy from North Wales.

Now now @mushymanrobthere's no need to be so insulting about November like that. I mean, November normally has the decency to put a load of wind with this rain to make it far more interesting, plus the weather front would have cleared a long time ago, and we'd be having sunshine and showers by now. ... By the way, for what its worth I totally agree with you, its just dull, wet yuck... I really hate days like this, let alone days, upon days, upon days like this.

What a beautiful November's day yesterday was... And more of the same today!! In fact, only the foliage on the trees and lack of wind gave the game away!! ... Whoops sorry, my mistake we're still in summer 2017 aren't we? Lol

I've got to be honest, I was fully prepared to call last Wednesday a huge bust, having had many, many experiences of hot and humid with nothing afterwards... And then out of nowhere, that small storm appeared Persoanlly I think that the ECM might be a bit off the mark on this... Yeah, ok, we've got this concrete grey, dampness for the rest of the week, but I personally don't think next week will be too bad @karyo You watch, now I've openly said that! Lol

Personally I think that they will @TJS1998Tom Seconded, thirded and fourthed @Chris.R And moving swiftly back on topic... Just been having a look at the CFS weekly anomalies... And this is whats showing for weeks three and four. And before anyone says it, yes I know its the CFS, but I find it really quite good at picking up on possible trends.

Now I could be wrong here... But I do get the feeling that the pattern for this summer seems to be, ultra and unbearably hot stifling conditions, followed by a week of Atlantic driven low pressure systems that wouldn't look out of place in November, followed by another week of fine sunny and normal temperatures, before going back to hot and sultry. Now as I say, I could be wrong, but I seem to remember a very similar pattern for the summer of 1989 (from a totally IMBY perspective). I just hope that the next hot and humid spell doesn't suffer from the same capping problems as the last one, (now I was very lucky and got a small storm, but a lot weren't) and that everyone (including me) can get a decent thunderstorm or three out of it.

So I've just finished giving the car a 'quick wash' and looked up to see some rather nice convective cloudscapes bubbling up on the other side of the mountains... Clearly the weather gods are pleased with my car cleaning actions today. ... I think I might just fire up the barbecue after... Just to give things a helping hand you understand.

Morning all I hope that at least some of you managed to get and enjoy some of the storms yesterday. Anyway... If you're still feeling storm starved, or like me you're wanting more, I've just been having a quick butchers at the 00z run from the GFS, and I've cherry picked these three charts for this coming Wednesday (28-06-17). Certainly not showing the insane levels of CAPE like earlier this week, but hopefully this could mean that there is less chance of a cap in place(?) and therefore a good thing? Anyway, its still a long way off, so I would say that these charts are anymore than a nice bit of eye candy... But as ever worth keeping an eye on them. One other thing... Is it me or has anyone else noticed how charts like this are now showing up on and for a Wednesday? ... A trend for the summer? We shall see. Anyway, have a good day all, and hopefully a nice spiky little storm will creep up out of nowhere for at least some of us, and surprise us.

Morning @Justin123 I certainly wouldn't rule out anything next week lets put it like that Yesterday, I was lucky and got quite a half reasonable storm, but for many it was a huge bust which I've also experienced many times. So I'm hoping that next week (although still a long way off) could be one of those weeks with what looks like very little potential, but could hopefully deliver a rather impressive little storm, somewhere ... Forever the optimist me ya know.

Sadly it looks like your spiralling optimism was correct @Summerstorm But on the upside, there are a few interesting charts for next week... Certainly not showing the insane levels of CAPE that was modelled yesterday, but as long as there is no cap in place, then that's not a problem

YAY!! Nice one Dami

For what it's worth... Here's my current sky. ... The question now is, has it come too late?

I'm currently bathed in sweat it's that humid here!! Well, after that unexpected storm passed through, the sky around here is now looking like this!! Personally, I'd say this isn't over by a long shot. Don't loose hope yet folks.