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Duncan McAlister

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Posts posted by Duncan McAlister

    January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Nothing official yet as far as I know, but here are the values that I worked out from the daily averages (I derived similar results from an average of the 30 monthly CET values in the interval). I give these results in two decimals, you can see which ones are going to be close to a rounding (up or down) boundary, various different methods can lead to slight differences of about .01 or maybe .02, so the values that end with a 4, 5 or 6 could go either way. 

    Jan _ 4.66 _ should end up 4.7 but they may calculate just low enough to stay 4.6. 

    Feb _ 4.90 _ this one seems safe to say will be 4.9

    Mar _ 6.74 _ rounds to 6.7, but if they call it 6.8 would not be that surprised.

    Apr _ 8.95 _ just don't know which way they go on this one, to all decimals it's 8.95033' _ that rounds to 9.0, but so close.

    May _11.90 _ this one will be 11.9 for sure. 

    June _14.70 _ this one also looks certain (14.7).

    July _ 16.79 _ seems set at 16.8

    Aug _ 16.51 _ seems set at 16.5

    Sep _ 14.19 _ call this one 14.2

    Oct _ 10.91 _ 10.9

    Nov _ 7.41 _ 7.4

    Dec _ 4.96 _ seems more likely to be 5.0 than 4.9 but not entirely sure.

    year _ 10.236 _ 10.2 although as I mentioned elsewhere, 19 of 30 were 10.3 or higher. It was 2010 that kept the average from soaring.

    This deserves a big thank you!

    • Thanks 1

    Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Perhaps all those who are currently receiving, or have only received, cold rain and temps a bit below average (circa 4c) should go outside and enjoy the thrill of a chilly shower then?

    Do they *know* it’s only going to be ‘chilly showers’ for the rest of the winter? What about the northerlies on the GFS at 7-10 days, can you be sure they won’t deliver at the last minute? The post below writing off the whole winter? Come on!

    I mean, I’m in a place that’s well used to ‘spectacular’ setups like the Beast from the East disappointing on the snow front so maybe I’m looking at it from a different POV, but I’d rather have reliable, seasonal charts that deliver a few surprises, even if not in my own back yard, than be heartbroken by ‘the chart of a generation’ blah blah.

    If people would rather three months of constant rain, SW gales and 12c than the current seasonal mix then you do you I guess.

    Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    Let's be real, this so called cold spell isn't exactly a cold spell. It's just a bit of a below average spell.

    Even in the worst of winters places sometimes still get a brief dusting of snow from a 24 hour toppler. And we've seen 24 hour topplers pack more of a punch than this current spell.

    All this marginality just doesn't equate to a cold spell imo. A lot of places still haven't even managed a frost this week.

    Yes the synoptics and pattern looks wonderful, and from just looking at the charts you'd think we'd be in the freezer. But unfortunately the cold just isn't there.

    Maybe we will eventually unlock the door to true cold, but this week was overhyped by many. When in reality it was never looking as cold as we would have liked to believe.

    It’s a good seasonal spell at the heart of winter, possibly quite a prolonged spell, which is a vast improvement on the past couple of years of dross - mild, rain and worst of all imo the constant gales. And there is more chance of something better forming out of this setup than the usual.

    Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Very happy just to see some consistent cold, seasonal weather but nothing spectacular. In fact we’ve had a couple of snow flurries here. The ‘spectacular’ setups almost invariably disappoint here because they’re usually just too dry. Would rather have a surprise flurry or two from a below average setup than something like the Beast from the East which was probably the biggest letdown here of my weather-watching life (though great for East Ayrshire of course and even Troon and Prestwick!)

    COVID-19 Pandemic

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by Duncan McAlister

    6 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

    Another symptom which I experienced before my Cold Virus?,  of 3 Weeks was a left sided abdominal pain, and a feeling of Nausea and bloating.

    It was concerning enough for me to visit my G.P. 

    Since coming out of Hospital after my C.V.A.(Cerebrovascular Accident, Medical term for a Stroke), in Sept.2015, I've been taking Movicol Powders, for constipation. My C.V.A. affected the peristalsis action, in my intestinal tract, and caused severe constipation.

    Movicol has cured this problem but my Wife thought that prolonged use, may have irritated my intestinal tract and thought it might be a good idea to cut it out, for a couple of Days. But these symptoms continued, and I ended up at my G.P., who thought I may be developing Diverticulitis.

    The symptoms went away on their own, and that's when my Cough/Cold started. I then developed a pain, across the whole of my abdomen, made worse by coughing. I thought with coughing so much, I'd pulled a muscle?

    This general stomach pain, is another symptom  my Wife has been experiencing, this Morning but don't think she has been coughing long enough, to have pulled a muscle.

    One other element about the Coronavirus, which I HAVN'T heard about. Does it affect your appetite?

    All through the 3 Weeks of my Cold?, my appetite was fine and I ate really well and didn't feel sick, at all.

    I can only remember having Influenza a couple of times, and on both times couldn't face food. For myself, it became the "marker", between the common Cold and Influenza. I got a retort from a Member for suggesting the old adage of, "Feed a Cold, and starve a Fever".

    Another thing myself and my Wife have noticed over the last couple of Years, are what we call faux Cold symptoms, or as a nod to Trump, fake Colds. Vague symptoms such as an itchy nose and tickly throat start, and just when you think a Cold is going to erupt, the symptoms vanish and you feel as "right as rain". 

    Have any other Members experienced these "faux" Colds?

    Regards,

    Tom.   :hi:

     

    I too have noticed the ‘faux’ cold phenomenon, I wonder if it’s just to do with the body building up immunity to the different strains of the virus as the years go on. Symptoms start to take hold but then your acquired antibodies quickly fight it off?

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