Duncan McAlister
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Posts posted by Duncan McAlister
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Amazing to think the building blocks for this (the high and cold pool being in place) are only some 36 hours away.
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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:
Around these:
Always think the GFS 2m tends to overdo the cold a bit though?
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What kind of temperatures are we realistically looking at here, in late February, off this astonishingly cold feed?
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Even the west may not lose out on snow
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2 minutes ago, aggy said:
Anytime the intensity gets going and it’s starting to stick it stops ?
Tbh I hope it stops for a while now til darkness so when we get a fresh fall it's on near-freezing surfaces
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Blizzard at Somerset Park
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That last one was a bit of a damp squib, sleetier and lighter.
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13 minutes ago, Stormeh said:
Incoming snaw for the Ayrshire Coast..
It seems to be beefing up as it heads our way ?
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1 minute ago, aggy said:
It’s off now and melting with my winter hopes and dreams ??
More to come I'm sure ?
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Pyeongchang eat your heart out! #WinterOlympics #Ayr2022
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17 minutes ago, Hawesy said:
Colder air filtering in this afternoon should turn showers to snow later even at the coast. Whether they lie or not is a different matter. As a fellow coastie good luck to you!
Pelting down these last five minutes ? Good luck to you too!
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What a surprise, the first shower of the (waking) day here is rain.
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2.8C for me please.
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Seems like there will be enough cold around for something in early February whether from the west, north or east!
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18 minutes ago, aggy said:
I haven’t had one proper flake from anything this week . Earlier in week the snaw was tiny grupal
There has been a noticeable decline in snow events here since circa 2000. Of course, being on the coast they were pretty rare anyway but Feb 1991, Feb 1994, Feb 1998, Feb 2000 and Christmas/Boxing Day 2000 all stand out in the memory as bringing large dumps of snow that lasted at least a day. We've had cold uppers, from a 'wet' direction but apart from a 'nice' dusting on Tuesday night they have failed to deliver. Anything between SW and NW is invariably too mild, anything clockwise of NNW is invariably too dry.
I do wonder if we'll see anything like Feb or Christmas 2000 here again in my lifetime. Remarkable that they were both the same year yet nothing like it since. Maybe there is just too much background warming. The uppers this week have been -6 or -7 but it's not really cooled us at ground level - temps have been 3-4 which is just a degree or two too high for anything significant. 20 years ago, maybe the same system would have been -8 or -9 and with it copious dumpings. An interesting test case perhaps of how small shifts in global temperature can lead to dramatic changes on the margins.
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Rain showers here all morning. Today doesn't look as promising as Tuesday despite similar uppers.
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Any chance for the Ayrshire coast today? Yesterday started as rain, turning to snow most of the evening but uppers seem to be about a degree higher today, so perhaps just on the wrong side of marginal.
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Been snowing most of the evening here, sometimes sleety/hail, about 1 inch on the roads. Quite pleased, was expecting yet another disappointment.
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Flash of lightning just now.
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Proper snow in Ayr now, fairly heavy.
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At last, getting sleetier here.
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Seems like we may have some joy after lunch when the temperature's forecast to drop.
2 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:Strathaven slap bang in the middle of the amber warning...and its chucking it doon. At home in coastal ayrshire........i believe its started to change to wet snow
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Still heavy rain here.
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Still just wet here...
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Happy spring