Duncan McAlister
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Posts posted by Duncan McAlister
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9.5C for me please. Seems to be a better chance of cold shots than some recent Octobers.
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14.7°C for me please.
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15 hours ago, scott125 said:
To me been the poorest month of the summer for a long time now , i prefer early summer . Even September can be a lot better . In england and Europe its more a holiday month . I think early August has the highest average temperatures though.
Yep, May and September have been almost been the best 'summer' months with August poor and June/July a mixed bag, weird!
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Is it just me or did August used to be a much better month around here, specifically in the 90s and early 2000s? It always seemed to be lovely weather for going back to school. Since the mid-late 00s it seems to have gotten so much worse, in particular the lack of sunshine.
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Slightly late prediction of 17.2C for me please.
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From weeks of night sweats and having windows/doirs open all day to possibly needing to switch the heating on before July is out!
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I don't remember seeing the grass so brown here since 2006. If I'm remembering correctly I don't think the sunshine was as prolonged that year, it was basically only July whereas the last 6 weeks here have been glorious barring a couple of spells. Already rivalling 2003 here IMO.
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16.8. Let's do this
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11.7 for me please.
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8.5°C for me please.
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4 minutes ago, aggy said:
It’s snow on the radar could this be our wee beast lol ?
The Pest in the West!
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There seems to be a pulse of precipitation on its way from the south. What's it going to be...?
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Think we'll see a few reloads! 4.2C.
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Ayr has come to the party!!!
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At last a decent shower breaks through the Ayr snow shield!
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Just a dusting here, apparently Prestwick have been getting more of the action. My niece is annoyed the school isn't shut.
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29 minutes ago, Rickoza said:
Playing dodge the shower here this afternoon.....-)
Same! They are literally passing over my house on the radar but not materialing (barring 15 minutes at 4pm).
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First real shower of the day, fairly hefty for the past few minutes and starting to lie on the grass. The BBC app has the heavy snow symbol for 5pm too
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The showers seem to be making their way further west than expected and today was supposed to be mainly dry #hopefulface
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36 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:
PUTTING THE DEPTH OF THE PREDICTED COLD SPELL INTO CONTEXT
I have noted that there have been several queries regarding how the predicted very low 850 temperatures compare to the lowest values in earlier severe winters such as the example that I quote above. This is a very good question and as nobody appears to have answered this (unless I missed it) I shall do a comparison now. I'll start off with the lowest 850s predicted by ECM on their Feb 23rd 0z run. Other models are available! Some models have shown slightly higher or lower values at slightly different times on different runs but the ECM is pretty representative of what we "might" expect. Then I go on to show the lowest values that I could find from the archives for the years requested and a few others too working backwards. Some of these might surprise you but I've doubled checked them. Although I might have missed a few examples, some do not appear as they did not quite make my sub -14c yardstick (eg: Feb 2009 got close).
ECM Mar 1st 2018 March 11th 2013 December 1st 2010 February 7th 1991 January 12th 1987
February 20th 1986 January 7th 1985 January 9th 1982 January 1st 1979 January 30th 1972
March 5th 1971 February 7th 1969 March 2nd 1965 February 2nd 1963 January 17th 1963
February 26th 1962 February 7th 1958 February 2nd 1956 February 23rd 1947 January 31st 1947
January 24th 1947 February 21st 1942 January 17th 1940 February 13th 1929 March 8th 1917
February 7th 1895 7th January 1891 27th November 1890 27th January 1881 9th January 1879
There were some very near misses with 850s as low as -28c in western and central Europe but only -8c over here. Although the coldest March in at least 150 years was in 1883, it never managed values below -12c. Both 1947 and 1962/63 saw repeated periods of sub -10c and sometimes sub -12c but 1962/'63 never managed sub -15s and 1947 only just managed a sub -16c. The 2018 spell looks like managing values below March 2013, well below December 2010, slightly below February 1991 on a par with February 1956, January 1940, February 1895 and November 1890 and almost as low as January 1987, the coldest in the 20th century. So this should be a truly exceptional period of cold and so late in the season! In terms of longevity, it may last longer than many of those other severe spells but perhaps not as long as March 2013 (time will tell) and certainly nowhere near matching 1947 or 1962/63. Finally, note that only February 1969 saw sub -14c 850s on a northerly and that was ushered in by a polar low event (there are a number of sub -12s) but all the others are polar continental flows from an easterly quarter.
I'll be back with my Eurasia temperature report late this evening.
One of the most informative posts I've seen on here, a great reference. Thank you!
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Would love February or March (hopefully both) to end up below 3C to do this upcoming cold spell some justice.
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2 minutes ago, Fingers said:
Can anyone post country wide 850’s for the coldest days in 87, 91, 10 and 13? Interested to see where this is predicted to sit!! It looks completely bonkers!
Couple of examples from 1987 and 1991. 1987 just shades it but certainly looks at least on a par with Feb 1991!
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Ooft, buried!
November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
7.7° for me please.