Costa Del Fal

Stunning day and 100% clear blue skies. A little breezy though so not as perfect as last weekend. However im delighted to see that High Pressure looks like holding in there and any low pressure looks to miss us to the North this week. Hopefully we are entering a prolonged, warm, sunny period!

Looks like parts of the Midlands caught some stubborn cloud today! Stunning down here mind today. :lol:

My ideal summer would be 20-25c throughout June with lots of sunshine but occassional unsettled spells bring a risk of some thunderstorms. July would be high pressure and lots of sunshine and heat like last year in fact. August would continue the same but a huge temporary breakdown mid month with violent thunderstorms. Max temperature as hot as it likes but over 30c.

Glad to hear youve had a great day up there. 2nd day in a row in the beach down here today. Fantastic. Hard to believe we arent a 1/3 of the way through March yet!

Possibly rounded up but will probably make 20c soon anyway if not just yet.

GLORIOUS! 15c here in Falmouth, barely any wind. PERFECT.

Does that always equate to colder conditions for the UK though? I am not very clued up on how the stratosphere affects us but havent past Stratospheric warmings not affected us in the past and instead brought a change in conditions to somewhere else instead?

Indeed, Heathrow was already 16c at about 10.30am so 20c could be reached. Off to a good start this year. Lets hope we arent using our high pressure quota up. :lol: I know the CFS isnt very reliable but its useful for trends and I have been following it most days and the trend over summer thus far seems to be some sort of higher pressure just to our East and above average temps. Certainly nothing disastrous being shown at the moment.

It was quite breezy here in Falmouth but after abuout 3.30/4 the wind really dropped and became even more pleasant.

Ahh well, I suppose its only usually a few weeks and only an hour. Usually we arent quite blessed with such stunning weather this early on in Spring so perhaps why it feels a bit more annoying. Didnt go fully dark until about 7.20pm here tonight!

Thanks for your advice. Its certainly an area which interests me particularly with flooding as I would like to perhaps have a career in this area in future. What are your thoughts of my idea above as a potential dissertation (Posted on the 7th March)? Would be good to hear if people think its feasible and potentially worth the attention. Its certainly a hot topic and I feel at least, tries to further improve an issue, that being ENSO and uncertainty around it to try and find some links or information that hasnt too well been uncovered yet. My plan with this idea is to compare with different rivers around the UK, i.e Severn, Thames, Tweed and maybe one or two more to compare any differences with the UK. Perhaps I would expect any correlation to decrease the further North one goes. Or if it was possible, it would be to have a look at data for Western Europe but obtaining data for this might be more tricky. Whilst a few studies have looked at ENSO and rivers before, no one seems to have done it around Europe and especially the UK so in terms of this part of the world, it appears to be a relatively unique study, so would this count as filling gaps in the literature too?

STUNNING DAY! Crystal clear blue skies all day since about mid morning. Gylly beach in Falmouth packed. Wonderful day. Same again tomorrow.

Do their clocks go back earlier on in Autumn though?

Totally agree about the coffee flavour! Yuk! haha. Indeed, a much needed change has finally arrived. First day wearing shorts for 2014 coming up today methinks.

Wispa for me please. :lol: Night mate.

Shopping there at midnight just before Christmas is rather surreal but rather enjoyable actually. Haha. Just to keep this thread vaguely on topic.... there was weather back then. :lol:

I like car parks... :lol:

Haha will do when im back for the Easter break in 3 weeks time. :lol: Suppose its benefit is a mini heat island on the area. :lol:

What a glorious day it was down south here in Falmouth. Sounds like it was good in the Midlands too. The forecast fills me with Joy particularly as Monday looks our only real cloudy day. Think a walk along the coast due tomorrow or Sunday. Woop! In your face Autumn/Winter (delete as applicable).

Model Ramping time for me, looking pretty glorious here on the south coast throughout next week. Just Monday looking especially cloudy!

Hi all, been really thinking about my dissertation this last week. After ploughing through some literature what struck me was that a lot of people are very uncertain of ENSO's influence especially around Europe and in particular the UK. Therefore I thought it might be interesting given all the floods we have had recently, to see if there is any correlation between ENSO and mean river discharge for a number of rivers around the UK. I know a site where there is lots of river flow etc data about for many rivers. Then I could compare against the ENSO index. Does it go past 1950 though? If so can anyone point me to this data. In the literature, a few people have conducted a study about ENSO and climate in Europe but no one seems to have studied ENSO and river discharge/flow etc in the UK at least or not much that I can find so it seems a pretty original topic and when quickly browsing through some data for the River Severn for example, not always but El Nino years especially in winter seemed to be showing a slightly higher likelihood of higher mean flows and higher river discharges overall. So I thought given ENSO is something that can to some extent be forecasted e.g. right now there are forecasts of El Nino developing this summer or fall then I hought it would be interesting to study whether ENSO could be used as an analogue for a higher risk of flooding in the UK and therefore whether El Nino years should act as a period for increased monitoring and preparedness in flooding prone regions. What are peoples thoughts on this? Thought it seemed relatively unique to the UK at least whilst linking a very hot topic at the moment. Also, not only will it try and help further see if there is any link with ENSO and the UK climate, probably testing seasonal differences but it also takes it to a more applied level i.e River management and flood hazard.

Sunset already well past 6pm here. Will be 18.13 tomorrow and given the sunny conditions it wont properly get dark till 7pm now. Fabulous.

What a beautiful day and the forecast fills me with Joy. Only Monday looking relatively cloudy. A few signs the Azores High may renew itself next weekend too. Fantastic. So needed. T shirts and shorts perhaps this weekend in the sun. The best thing at this time of year is that even 13-15c feels really warm because we arent used to it but obviously this would be cool by June.

Wednesday looking sunnier though. Here in the South West, Tuesday looks quite good too with perhaps only Monday being the real cloudy day for most. Temperatures will pick up next week. All week the temperatures have been upgrading for this weekend. Notice there is now 16c on Sunday for Cambridgeshire.

True but I certainly would say before it was looking like cooler and unsettled for all by next weekend, perhaps just the North now.