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Ecm along with other models show the Worst of the winds over northern France it's output has changed very little in the last couple of days....The storm starts to batter the Bay of Biscay about this time tomorrow. ....
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It's definitely trending south today, but if it did slow down and not track so quickly northeast it would move a little further north than anticipated, but for now the worst of the winds will be hitting northern France and the CIs
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The Ecm has the least wobbles the last few days. Last night’s and this morning charts look virtually identical to each other……
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You're having a laugh, there's no frost anywhere is southern Britain, temperatures are all in positive values, the coldest temperature I've seen over London way is 5.8c/42f needs to be at least 3c/37f for a ground frost ....
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Slight wobbles from the models ,but the lions share of the strongest winds will still at least be over the English channel ,thank goodness. I think the Channel Islands are going to be right in the firing line, interesting that this storm peaks around early Thursday morning, so less people on the move. The UKV has a sting in its tail for Cornwall in picticular first thing on Thursday ,with potentially 100 mph gusts especially on the Atlantic Coast. ...
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I wouldn't rule the Ecm out, but if you look at the storm it's at its most aggressive before it hits the UK ,the Bay of Biscay will take a pounding along with coastal communities there....
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Ecm still keeps the worst of the winds over northern France and the channel. The Bay of Biscay looks like getting the worst of it.....
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Amazing to see that in these situations, large parts of southern Britain will hardly see enough wind to fly a kite on midday Thursday, whilst a hundred miles or so south and it’ll be windy enough to blow roofs off houses !
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
After what seems like a tempestuous start to the ten day period ,both gfs and ecm show things settling down somewhat with colder,calmer conditions as we move towards the end of this ten day timescale. ...... -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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The changing daylight hours thread
ANYWEATHER replied to Boydie's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
And the reservoirs will still be empty next summer -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You'll see some high seas that's for sure if you're picticularly on the south coast of Cornwall. ... -
Major Hurricane Otis
ANYWEATHER replied to daz_4's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Thanks for that ,and very interesting to note that the topography of the land may well have more influence than we realise in producing tropical storms and not destroying them!☺- 23 replies
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Okay, but computer models are much better now than they were in 1987, but yes there us always that caveat. ... -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To be honest ,I don't know, I never really look at the fax charts..?☺ -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well yes ,although that was yesterday's chart ,will be interesting to see the latest update.... -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKV , portraying some really stormy conditions on Thursday morning along the English Channel and across the top of northern France. Pushing towards the 100mph category! Even though the worst of the winds stay out at sea and to the south of the Uk, the English channel coasts look like seeing some turbulent seas which would make interesting viewing! From a distance! -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quite the contrary, signal for colder air to move right down the nation as the turbulent southerly tracking lows exit dragging cold rPM air from Greenland by this time next week, especially shown by ecm last and this morning. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking increasingly likely that France will bear the lions share of the stormy winds later this week , although rain probably still an issue for parts of the UK. ... -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just for example , Ecm has two serious wind storms ,mainly for the far south of England and into France, in fact northern France bears the brunt of these two wind storms...still plenty of time for changes ,at first it was Ireland, then England , now perhaps France..? Certainly an interesting week coming up, there has been nothing boring about this Autumn....! I often think of November as a bore fest meteorologically but.... -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ANYWEATHER replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Plenty of rain yes ,but will be scooting through pretty quickly with those high winds ......!