ANYWEATHER

For heavens sake ,that's December 14th ,over two weeks away, next week alone is still uncertain. ...

Lovely blue but cold looking skies here……

It's called weather, ! Computer models struggle with the evolution of this scenario, and it's perfectly normal seeing the models flip flop around, next week's synoptics are well in fantasy island .....☺

I would add that tonight's gfs 12z is an upgrade to cold ,compared to this mornings runs. Models often underestimate the cold blocking to our Northeast, in fact I would say it's perfectly normal for that to happen in FI...where the models bring back the default normal pattern of the Atlantic ,with West or Southwesterly airflow.....

Well as my thoughts from yesterday morning, looks as though the snow risk is deminishing with time sinking south although there is the caveat that gfs may still be in for a fighting chance...

To be honest, would you put any money on snow for the south on Thursday, given model volitility? I think not. ..?.....

Gfs ,is often moaned about precipitation charts , but don't dismiss the gfs , it was the first to pick up this cold spell !

Ecm ,says no to snow ,gfs goes for snow....?.for Thursday. ......?

Marginal synoptics often bring the biggest snowfalls

Im sure it did the same in the prolonged cold of late November/December 2010...six full weeks of cold...

Well it feels like Winter outside ,grey ,damp and temps just above freezing . As regards Thursdays developments, personally I think it will be a southern affair, and it may be with time that any precipitation may be further south with time , but interesting nontheless and if the models are barking up the right snowman, than some places will do very well out of this setup......

We all know what day ten has to offer ......FI

Both ecm and gfs at both time frames at T+168 and 240 hrs show the same evolution. Unusual , but interesting, let the COLD flow...

Actually, perfect for snow chances, I would think due to low solar output ,and relatively warm SSTs ,creating instabilty and with Artic air becoming entrenched across the UK ,some folks on the coast may well see Thundersnow ,yes thunderSsnnnaaawww ! Gfs 12z, is a peach of a run for coldies up to the T+240 hrs and beyond. Of course ,forecasting snow, saying where it will fall and where, is a mugs game, but next week is looking primed to kick off Winter in true style ,looking the best start to winter since 2010!

Nice day here , but the wind has a bite!

Why have folks not learnt , don’t take every model run has gospel. 06z gfs always looks different from the 00z .

A bit early to say that given the synoptics and time of year

What do you mean by game over?

For those people who think that the current cold spell coming up ,is going to be straight forward from the the models ,with out shortwaves ,warm sectors ,marginal dewpoints , etc better look away in the next few days .

Actually it can snow at 5c/41f if dewpoints are low enough!

Just a quick reminder ,the cold on the charts is still there , let's talk Snnaaawww when the cold becomes established ,and looking at the gfs and ecm this morning ,it looks an upgrade for some, but caution still needed, but nontheless some very interesting winter charts as we leave Autumn and slip slide into Winter....☺

Waste of time doing that BBC ten day forecast, was very uncertain past Saturday

Regardless of all the scrutinising over the models , to my eyes ,gfs and ecm ,today ,have upgraded the cold in the days ahead ,on the other hand ,caution is still needed, but coldies should be happy today of the output....☺

Nice pictures, it's amazing how flat Coventry is, sat in the Warwickshire basin......

Uninspiring output for who?