ANYWEATHER

Quite agree with you! A lot of people ridicule others with regard to this line of thought. A lot more work/ research has to be done on solar output, but I’m in agreement that these solar cycles have a lot more to how the weather behaves around the planet than what is given credit for……

Model outputs especially toy around with people's emotions, especially if models predict Snowmageddon, which rarely materialise! Folks are now becoming wise to this pied piper effect, and the more veteran posters have learnt long ago ,not to get hung up on every model run. The models have now sobered up and are now giving us a rough idea of Christmas Eve/day . For 99% it will be a Green Christmas, for a very few stuck on a mountain in the Caingorms, they may see a little snow. Normal Christmas weather coming up ,with the Atlantic in control, and currently there is no signal for anything different as we start the new year!

The odds of a White Christmas for most is always stacked against us and this year is no different. .....

Well ,yes it did effect the global weather ,but that's another story!☺

Hopefully not like the Carrington Event back in the late 1800s ! Took out all the Victorian infrastructure. Today ,it would take out just about everything the modern technical world we depend on........

The Jet stream helps create Lows and Highs….

Not with high pressure over southern Europe. With the synoptic weather pattern we are entering now, it's going to be into next month before we see any major changes ,unfortunately for cold weather fans....

Well this mornings runs ,really go to show the most likely scenario for Christmas day and beyond. Nothing unusual about those charts at this time of year, in fact pretty normal for Christmas as the normal default ,mild pattern.But plenty of time for Winter synoptics ,after Christmas ,where the real meat of winter is to come........!

They say that the chances of cold increases as we move later into December, however it could remain mild. That’s no forecast, it’s called covering your AxxE cheeks

Looks like I will need a sledge, Snow boots, Snow shovel, Snow tyres for Christmas day ......

Depends on how much high pressure exerts it's influence. It does look that the run up to Christmas will be milder for the North, colder for the south under clear skies and lighter winds ........

As White Christmas's in southern lowland uk are as rare as hens teeth , the last one being 13 years ago ,and even that was a dry day with no snow falling ,but with deep snow cover on the ground ,for me anyway! I think it's an easy bet to say that it's going to be a Green Christmas every year for the majority away from the usual high ground in the North etc etc ,and you could say that every year without looking at Gfs or Ecm or any Teleconections. ! Not a lot of change from yesterday's output , whilst gfs shows a brief northerly at day ten and gone by Christmas day, ecm paints a very green run up to the festive period allbeit with the usual caveat of frost and fog especially for southern uk. The heights over Europe, look like being the harbinger of ,dare I say it or guess it, another Green Christmas!

High pressure ,still over southern Europe by Ecms end run.....?

If I had a pound for every time models show snow at Christmas for two weeks ahead ,I would be a "Model Addicted Millionaire "

Looking far into the unreliable from gfs and to a lesser degree the ecm , it's a trend which I've picked up on a good many runs now, is the showstopper for a proper deep cold shot for Christmas are the heights, or high pressure fairly consistently predicted over southern Europe. We all know that to get proper cold over the uk we need low pressure over southern Europe. Whist ,I'm not calling anything just yet, I'm afraid the usual green Christmas will be in situ for just about all, but happy for the weather to prove me wrong!

I would say the reliable timeframe is not 8 days away thats in FI.

You could call it home grown surface cold....

850 temps have little bearing on surface temperatures under a strong high during Winter, especially during December ,January ,with little solar output. Clear skies at night will likely produce fog ,so the inversion will create temperatures colder at the surface then 5000 ft up.....

Borefest for you maybe, but for most a welcome change from rain. Cold nights with sharp frosts ,and the caveat of freezing fog for many, keeping daytime temperatures below freezing. Whilst it's not a snow maker ,which many would like ,it will produce some gentle Wintry weather and at least some time for the ground to dry out

Yes, just like ‘Umpteen other Winters did

Nice to see a drying trend, and becoming more settled as we move towards Christmas. I'm not really bothered about supercold synoptics right now ,more importantly a settled more drier period would be welcome by all ,as otherwise if the rains keep continuing, we will be using boats as a mode of transport as we move into the festive period. ...

John Holmes favourite term

For me personally, it's good to see things drying out somewhat next week with high pressure building , at least it won't be raining what seems like forever. ,!

The way you are painting the synoptics is a bit ott . If you take the gfs 12z at face value even at T+240 ,that would be surface cold ,very cold in fact ,probably very foggy as well with ice days for many...... and at least it would allow the ground to dry out from the high rainfalls this Autumn and Winter, and releave people with the worry of flooding....