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Everything posted by ANYWEATHER
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Model output discussion 24/01/21
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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A good covering in Evesham . From merely a historical perspective snow from the West and settling in this part of the world is pretty rare. I remember growing up back in the 1970s and we had a few snow events coming in from the West and it always turned to rain and melted quickly. ......
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Model output discussion - into the last third of January
ANYWEATHER replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Models are really struggling with the upcoming scenarios of our future weather in the days ahead. This is not a normal default British Winter where the Atlantic is in charge and fair to say when models have this situation they model well. But different times this Winter and models will really struggle as always with a blocking pattern . The only clear trend I can see that the models are in agreement of some bitter deep cold developing to the north and east over the coming days. I think it's a matter of not If but When the UK can tap into that deep cold. It could be very soon ,or we might have to wait a while. But expect some very interesting charts in the days ahead....Enjoy the Winter Roller coaster the Ride has only just begun..........!
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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
ANYWEATHER replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
First round of Onslaught from the Artic this coming week. Easterly then a deluge of cold from the Artic the Roller coaster has just begun!,!!! -
Happy New Year To All .looks like we have a colder and colder outlook. Models are just firming up on an Historical Winter.! Tuesday across Southern Britain could be very snowy...and then there is Thursday....!
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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
ANYWEATHER replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
ANYWEATHER replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A good post. December 2010 and the like computer models did not pick up on any snow what fell until the last minute. Mondays snow will be impossible too forecast , the trend is there but snow surprises are on the way for all...Great News for Snow Lovers but......Just watch this ...........................................Space! -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
ANYWEATHER replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Models are shaping up very nicely for a very cold and prolonged cold spell. At the moment models are showing nothing really exceptional but I think over the coming week and beyond we will see some bitter winter weather showing up on the models. I remember how the models struggled ten years ago but in reality what that Winter gave us was some exceptional cold snowy weather for the first half of that winter. Anyway Merry Christmas to everyone enjoy the forthcoming Winter roller coaster ride and thanks to Paul and Co for the best weather website on the planet. -
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
ANYWEATHER replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening All. It really is not a bad outlook for cold lovers. There will be lots of snow cover on high ground in the outlook, even on low ground there could well be snow , Evaporative Cooling will be the key factor! Thank God we were not looking at charts in the late 1950s ! Well 1957...December 27th! -
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
ANYWEATHER replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
ANYWEATHER replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As far as I'm concerned we are looking at computer models adding into the equation blocking which computer models are absolutely rubbish at, and there you go we have the model output tonight.....tomorows output will be very different. ... -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
ANYWEATHER replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening Folks. A snapshot of January 25th 1963 a mid Atlantic Ridge. ....just like what is showing up now. Mum said it was soo cold under clear skies. Just look happened to Greenland that year! -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
ANYWEATHER replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening! Lots of blocking ! It does mean one thing ,colder than average across the UK during this time of year. But , how cold it will get ? Computer models really struggle with this scenario, but we could be looking at the coldest synoptics since 2010......... -
Evening All.!!!! The hot spell is nothing out of the ordinary. Back in the 1930s temps peaked above 40C! Anyway back to the hear and now...the low developing over the UK by midweek is a rain maker. It won't be heat we are talking about , but the news headlines will be about torrential rain and flash flooding. The computer model output but the extended weather pattern from next weekend onwards remains in the High Shannon Entropy region!!!!
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Evening All.A hot few days in the souff east a very warm week next week with increasingly thundery downpours. Anyone thinking this is not normal let's go back to 1984. Many many weeks of above average temperatures and low rainfall. Historical Weather is what I deal with , so anybody having a question please let me know!
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Feels more like Winter in the wind today 11c now down from 15c earlier this morning.
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Model Output Discussion - heading into April
ANYWEATHER replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening All! Hope you are all well. The upcoming cold spell is unusual in its severity but certainly not unknown. May 1996 saw some brutal cold across the nation, for this time of year, lots of snow fell in over the moors and tors of Cornwall and Devon. Sunday into Monday looks very interesting, snow at low levels possible even as far south as Cornwall And the Channel Islands and the Scilly Islands. Models agree at short range , ! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
ANYWEATHER replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Afternoon All ! Anyone wanting some early heat may be a bit dissapointed. Both Ecm and Gfs show pressure building across the nation, next week but as the air is sourced from the north it won't be that warm with some pontentially cold nights with some frost. Looks like some lovely sunny days for most perhaps the gfs is overdoing the showers and lower pressure to the south west of Britain. ....