Great Plum

Conjecture at this stage but FI on the ECM... Monday:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif High pressure centered over southern England - warmer uppers but likely to remain cold for the majority... Tuesday: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif Bit of an ugly scene over Greenland but high pressure should keep it settled and cool despite warmer uppers... Hint of a Scandi high? Wednesday: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif This is not zonality! Notice there is still some energy in the southern arm and if anything, 'our high' has drifted northwards - it's not sinking!

Saturday looks really cold with -10s clearing the south coast... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif I'm not too good at this, but I think there's still some energy in the southern arm of the jet... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif High over the country by Sunday but still bitterly cold... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

Northerly blast looks more and more certain now... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif -5 line clears the south coast... -10 into Scotland... The GFS (bless it!) is slowly agreeing on a short sharp cold blast too... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

ECM 240 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif Milder upper air for us all by this stage - possibility of an inversion perhaps? ECM is still going for a sharp cold snap - it's coming into the semi-reliable now but 5 days is a long time in weather forecasting!

ECM 216 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif Still very cold -5 air for England and Wales but milder air incoming?

ECM 192... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif -5 air clearing the south of France and nick sussex's house... Looks like to me that the high May move over us but it will still be very cold!

ECM 168... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif Notice how it has picked up the 'kink' (shortwave?) in the flow again - mucho snow perhaps? -10 air into the midlands -5 half way through France!

Yup, ECM 144hr is looking great -5 line nearly at the south coast... It's going to be a cold wind! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

Methinks that the 0Z ensembles are broken... The op run is practically an outlier from the start... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png ???

Complete conjecture at this stage of course, but would you expect the high to take a trip to see Father Christmas in Lapland?

Ah, the GFS - more volatile than sodium at the moment... Whilst the ensembles stick to the routine of 'chilly' after the 3rd December or so, the op decides that the vortex isn't vortexy enough and goes 'off on one..' http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png To use that trite and overused phrase - more runs needed!

Full of optimism this morning after reading Mucka's excellent summary of the GFS this morning, I had a look at the ensembles... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Oh dear... A clear outlier if ever I saw one! James Madden has obviously taken reigns of the computer... However, my 10 years (when did that happen?) of me being on here has told me that if the op run goes off on one, see the next few GFS runs to see if there's any support before completely dismissing it! I'll be clear, it is a rank outsider at the moment, especially with the 'vortex that's all vortexy' (thank you Lorenzo - it's the phrase that keeps giving...) nevertheless, let's enjoy the charts!

The GFS 0Z ensembles are still looking positive for a cold snap after 3rd Dec... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Notice as well how the mean reduces the milder blip before... A few days ago, the south east was forecasted to be widely 11-13c today by the models - the met office expect a top temperature of 8 today here in Reigate... In all seriousness, considering the 'vortex that is looking all vortexy' (thanks Lorenzo!) and other factors, the fact that we are running below average with a possible cold snap on the way is probably the best we can expect at the moment... And it's not even winter!

This mornings GFS 0Z ensembles for London shows the weather staying largely below average after the next few days... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Nothing really cold as yet, but the chance of something more exciting after 5th December perhaps? ECM seems to think so too... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Looking at the GFS 0Z ensembles, it is clear that the op is 'off on one' after day 5... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Notice the trend after the 5th December - ensemble mean is down to -3/-4 at some points... Baby steps!

I think that DECIDER is a met office mid range model that we don't get to see...

I don't think it is a poor beginnings for winter in Switzerland - most resorts don't open until December anyway! It is bring hailed as an excellent start on the alps discussion thread... Certainly, if there's snow in interlaken, which is relatively low lying, then that's good news!

Yes, I've noticed that Paul, and the mobile interface is much better now!

Sleety? In Reigate? <-- looks out of window... Oh it is! I wonder if there's anything properly white on the downs...

Temperature at Reigate grammar is -0.3c at 7.15 apparently. Light drizzle falling on frost at the moment...

Still -1.1c in Reigate...

Ill hold you to that Crewe!

Today is my church's Christmas fair (St Matthew's, Station Road, Redhill between 10.30 and 2.30 today - I'm manning the toy stall) and it's so nice to see something seasonal and bright instead of drizzle!

I will have a look! Currently -0.4c here in Reigate...

Morning all, Hope to be posting a bit more now as autumn turns into winter... I haven't looked at the 0z charts but just taken a look at the met office weather app which suggests a top temp of 4c on Wednesday and sleet! Not bad for mid November!