Great Plum

15.4c please

Late again... But 12.4c please

Nothing at all here in Reigate!

8.4c please

Apologies for the lateness but 6.9c for me please

The forecast for the south east is bright and sunny!

Day late - oops... 5.4c please

Good grief - 10 minutes of gusts and very heavy rain, now merely drizzle... Oops I meant to send this 30 mins ago!

Morning all, Seems a 'steady as she goes' type of morning... I am liking the ECM so far; the 144hr chart is great (see posts above) Also likening the ECM 168 - -5s nearly everywhere even with the low approaching from the north west! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

Out in the land of fantasies, but this would keep those of us who like the cold very happy if it came off... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

Another solidly below average (in the main) set of ensembles from the GFS 0z... Notice how after 27/01 the mean stays below average - ok, nothing especially cold, but full of potential - and there's a good cluster including the control below -5... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

On Friday, Easterly winds are so close, you can almost touch them! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png - quite a difference in upper air temps from west to east... Cold virtually everywhere... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.png

Indeed, maybe this is an 'all routes lead to cold' sort of model watching day!

Well, the ECM has got out of the wrong side of bed this morning... It is the most progressive with pushing the Scandi block out of the way... Here are the big 3 at 120 hours... GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png - Scandi high holding well UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif Less well but has potential ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif Just a couple of hundred miles makes the difference! Overall, a much more positive set this morning than last night... The GFS sticks us in some pretty cold air in FI - we are only a little way from -10 air from the northeast - all conjecture of course..

Hovercraft needed? Seriously, Horley is virtually cut off - take care!

Following on from this, work have stated the following travel issues for the local area (Reigate) Road Closure: A22 at Godstone, between A25 Oxted Road and Tilburstow Hill Road Road flooding and delays: A23 Brighton Road, Salfords at Honeycrock lane A23 Horley, Cambridge Hotel A23 Pease Pottage M23 West Sussex, Junction 10a at B2036 Balcombe Road A217 Reigate Road, Sidlow (flooding at Irons Bottom Road) A24 Dorking Road, Kingsfold, Marches Road A25 Station Road, Gomshall – flooding at Colekitchen Lane A251 Horsham Road between B2130 Elmbridge Road A283 Godalming bypass Milford, at Old Elstead Road A283 Petworth Road, Chiddingfold, Coxcombe Lane A308 London Road, Staines Lonesome lane, Horley - closed Flanchford and Brockham Bridges Closed Trains: Southern – Tonbridge to Redhill no service due to flooding at Nutfield - Brighton to East Croydon severely disrupted due to flooding at Balcombe - Horsham to Dorking disrupted due to landslide at Ockley First Capital Connect – Brighton to City Thamelink disrupted due to flooding at Balcombe Hope that helps anyone trying to get home!

I understand that the A217 south of Reigate is due to be impassable post 3pm due to flooding and the A23 at Salfords is only passable with extreme care...One of my colleagues took 2 hours to get back from London by train this morning AS!

Morning all, ECM seems to be correcting a little this morning as the low pressures are further east today sadly at day 5... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif Yup, no Easterly by day 6 unlike last night's ECM... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif - pretty cold though I'd wager... I've noted a number of comments re the EC32 and how it's not much use etc... Hasn't it predicted consistently low heights to our north west this winter? I'd say that was pretty good... (As much as many of us don't want it to be!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif If only the ECM was right, we 'd get an easterly in a week... (Uppers aren't much but hey!)

How on earth does February look mild? How can you tell? What are next week's lottery numbers please?

It wouldn't be great for down south if it came off - heavy rain... Plenty of time to change!http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

Pretty much on the mean to be honest for London...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.pngSome comedy ensembles on there by the looks of things...The ECM shows another 'nearly' scenario but plenty of time to change there... Essentially, we are under high pressure for a while which will help dry as out...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gifAt least if this comes off, we can't say that Europe is mild... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gifPlenty to play for...

Chionomaniac said to keep an eye on the ensembles... The 0z GFS ensembles show a cooling trend... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Many runs after the 15th below -5... As for the ECM, I'm just pleased to see Scandanavia with a cold plunge in the semi reliable... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif Details for the location of the high pressures will be sorted out later... At this stage, a cooling (and drier) trend is probably the best to expect... Don't expect snowmaggedon yet!

High pressure over Scandinavia by day 9 - not quite the right shape to get the cold to us, but still pleasing (and if it came off, it would be a lot cooler and drier!) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Pretty insane hail shower here in Reigate...