Great Plum

Thanks Paul

Happily, there's some snow on the ground in Wengen now... I guess the problem is to make the snow stop so the lauberhorn is ready! http://www.bellevue-wengen.ch/webcam-wengen.html

The ECM shows the south east of England in -5 air at 192hrs this morning and is wonderfully poised to get the Scandi high into play... - that's 9 days away... The other models are giving a solid 6-7 days of cold currently, and this is day 2 of the cold spell - it sounds like a cold spell to me as per current modelling...

Surrey, have you a link for the euro 4?

When are you hopeful? You might get a flurry today... You could get 1 or 2 cm tomorrow or possibly more - it depends if the front from the south pushes up enough... And then, it's all about the sliders - but I've no idea after that!

Temperature at the grammar school in Reigate currently -3.4c, dew poin -4.1 - winter is back

Indeed - post 120hrs on the 18z was the stuff of nightmares!

The temperatures in that weather forecast looked way too mild to me - 6c in London on Tuesday and Wednesday? That's an ordinary January day!

Easterly anybody? Huge differences on this run - no doubt it will change again!

Well, and I know it's lala land, but I wasn't expecting such an angry pv over Greenland in 10 days time... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif That strikes me as a mighty quick reformation after a good mjo, half ssw etc...

What the 18z giveth, the 0z taketh away...

That was a cracking 18z GFS run for most of us... I am hopeful that my commute to work can involve sledging down Priory Park in Reigate next week

Early days but the 06z shows an increase in -10 uppers into Scotland... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.gif

For what its worth, the ECM mean keeps -5 or lower air throughout virtually all the british isles until 216 hours... Importantly for the southerners, with the exception of parts of Cornwall, the -5 is in the English channel when the slider comes (as per the 0z mean...)

Have they said a 3 to 5 day spell? I can't see that from this: 'Dry, cold and clear for much of central Britain on Monday and Tuesday with showers affecting many coastal counties away from the south, readily falling as sleet and snow. There will be a widespread frost overnight and some localised patches of freezing fog which may be slow to clear through the day. Through the rest of next week, the general cold conditions will persist bringing an ongoing risk of snow, more especially in northern and eastern areas. Temperatures will be generally below average with overnight frosts, locally severe. Towards the end of the period there looks to be a possible return to more generally unsettled conditions with rain, strong winds and temperatures perhaps nearer to normal for the time of year.' In addition, the ECM says yes to a 7+ day cold spell... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif Even the GFS ensembles that I posted just now remain below average throughout...

Morning all, Even as a southerner, I'm not worried about 'upgrades' and 'downgrades' at the moment... It's a dead cert that it will be colder next week but trying to find out where it will snow is a fruitless exercise... A 50 mile difference in the positioning of the low makes a huge difference and it will change over the next 5 days... Also, the GFS 0z ensembles show that around the 20 Jan, the run is warmer than the mean, I would expect the mean to show greater snow prospects further south... In addition, I think this is the first time this winter that the ensemble mean has remained below average throughout... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Enjoy the ride!

Richard, I think it's http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgfs1442.gif etc

Oh well, the main fun is next week hopefully! Why is the storm called Rachel?

Haha! It's time for some Rampkin

Yamkin, where did you get this info from? I presume Croydon is well gritted tonight

We have lost people? Why do I feel as though I have missed something? People please pm me if it shouldn't be shared!

My 3 year old as well - Jan 2013 was the last decent snow here ( we didn't get much that March! My 3 year old doesn't remember this, but my 5 year old can!

There's a reasonable chance I might wake up to see Reigate Hill with a dusting I guess! My kids will have me up early anyway!

Well, I wasn't expecting this overnight... (Just taken from the met office app)

There was some ice on car windscreens first thing here in Reigate, but nothing significant...