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Everything posted by Great Plum
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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat
Great Plum replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
All a bit meh weather wise this morning... Can anyone spot something interesting on the 5 day forecast for Reigate ? -
Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...
Great Plum replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Morning all, I've been saving the GFS ensembles over the last few days (for London) and whilst the ensembles have been all over the place in FI, it's clear to see the cooling trend - and today's 00z GFS ensembles have a good cluster trending very cold at the end... -
Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat
Great Plum replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Morning all, let's hope we can get rid of this mild sector overnight as quick as possible... I don't want double digit temperatures in the day until March, let alone at night! -
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
Great Plum replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well, a sort of Finnish/Russian high - it's pretty different to what the ECM had been advertising anyway...GFS carves out a mid Atlantic high for a time in FI - maybe not nirvana, but still a signal for high pressure... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif A definite sign on the 0z GFS ensembles that there is a change after 15 Jan - the sinuosity of the ensembles stops and the mean drops... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png -
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
Great Plum replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A typical day 10 ECM tease in FI or the start of the model 'picking up the signal?' Scandi high - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif -
Now for some memories... 5 years ago today, here are some pictures from my walk to and from work in the heavy snow...
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Model Output Discussion; into 2015
Great Plum replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know I'm looking 10 days into the future, but the 0z ECM and 0z GFS looked pretty similar to me considering the long range of those and the 0z evolves into something a lot less zonal! Latter part of the GFS ensembles still trending cooler... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png -
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
Great Plum replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's all crazy conjecture out in FI but the op was out on its own (with one other member) whilst the majority trended cooler... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png I reckon it's all 'still up in the air' at the moment... -
Much warmer up north then - it's not gone above 9.4c at Charlwood near me and that was in the last hour!
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4.3c please
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Model Output Discussion; into 2015
Great Plum replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not on Sunday...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.gif A maximum of 4 widely across much of the UK... Followed by another widespread frost overnight... The cool weather for the weekend seems to be enhanced on each run - nothing 'cold' but certainly not mild! -
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
Great Plum replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well, just because it's 'zonal' doesn't mean that the weather will be mild... Sunday morning for example - a widespread frost with cool uppers under a high pressure: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.gif -
Following on from my previous post, Charlwood recorded -6c at 7am - almost certainly the lowest temperature of 2014 around here! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/observation/gcpffxw47
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Charlwood currently -4.7c (brrrr!)
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Model Output Discussion; into 2015
Great Plum replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I also wonder if one GFS ensemble is scenting a change? The blue one looks good... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png And, whilst looking into deep FI for inspiration, the 10 day ECM chart is not without interest - that's a keen northwesterly... (Unlikely to verify but hey!) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif -
Hoar frost is very pretty! http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Hoar-Frost.htm
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It got down to -4.8c at Charlwood according to the met office website - that's probably a record here for 2014!
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Model Output Discussion; into 2015
Great Plum replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM hasn't followed the ukm's lead at 144 sadly - no ridge apparent... ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif UKM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif -
Better than rain I guess... 3c here with a dew point of 1.7c...
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Looking at the GFS temperatures (I know they are not entirely accurate but it's ehat I've got!) over the next week, it's not warm - top temps in the London area: 3c, 3c, 3c, 3c, 4c, 4c, 5c... Not perishing, but certainly not mild by any stretch... It will be interesting to see where this will lead, I don't see much mild on the charts, but after this week, it looks a little damp for us down south, but the further north you are with elevation, you could hit the jackpot if these pm shots come off
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Just wet here this morning... Temperature 3c, dew of 1.9c
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Boxing Day Snow Event Thoughts And Reports.
Great Plum replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Re the grit, with all the rain before hand, it would have washed much of it away and putting grit down on snow when there's not much traffic is just a waste. In addition, could the gritters have got out anyway?