Great Plum

I'm a bit late, but is there still room to join?

Fair enough Shed... As an aside, the met office app suggests that the temps for the next 5 days are:Reigate: 10, 9, 8, 7, 7Thetford: 9, 9, 8, 7, 7Christchurch: 11, 10, 10, 9, 10Buxton: 8, 8, 7, 7, 6

Shed, Look at the GFS temperatures over the next few days - I know they are 'unreliable' but it's all we've got... Tuesday: slightly above average away from the south west... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png Wednesday: average away from the south west and colder than average in the midlands north... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.png Thursday: similar to Wednesday but a little milder along the south coast... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png Friday: average away from the west: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.png Whilst it will be mildER, I think it's disingenuous to say that it is mild when outside of the south west, this is not forecast to be true...

Great Plum's straw clutch of the morning: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png I'll take the yellow or orange please... And the mean drops below average on the 20th... -5 air across the country the weekend before Christmas: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png

Extreme FI straw clutch... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png A couple of runs have suggested a mid Atlantic high in the run up to Christmas... N/w winds could make it more seasonal...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Straw clutching of the worst kind but at the end of the run, the op is definitely on the mild side of things and there's a few below average options...

Desperation mode on... We could get a northerly from this: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png Only 384 hours away!!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Worst winter ensembles ever? Yawn...

Spot on...Perhaps some interest from this chart...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.pngRidging up to the north - I expect it will be flattened... But...

By the middle of next week, it could be decidedly chilly in the middle of the country... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png I'll have the light blue line please...

Charts and evidence please sir - at least back up your assertions...This doesn't look all that warm to me for most...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

At least it will be mild!!http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13217.pngYuck!However , the high is further north on this run...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

Yes, it's very messy Mucka, but at least it broadly follows the previous ECM runs... WAA getting up to Scandi and some lows tracking south... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

The 168 chart looks better to me but is there too much energy to the north? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

Westerly winds for all by Sunday... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif Much milder upper air for all by Monday... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

Morning... The ECM's take on the brief northerly... Friday 00z http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm723.gif -5 air for most of the country by this point... Saturday 00z http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif -5 air across the eastern half of the country as the high moves across from the west... As expected, a very sharp but brief blast...

13th? That's pretty good for complete punts!

Conjecture but... But!!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif Days 11 and 12 would be great to see... Still no sign of zonal on the ECM at least...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif Full of promise... The next day... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif It's coming! (Well, it's probably not, but it's fun to look at!)

Next Monday sees a non sinking high on the ECM... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif Still cold at the surface I'd wager...

Very true Mucka... It does appear that the -10 line doesn't hit the south coast on this run though... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif ECM 144 charts show the upper cold air moving away but it will still be cold for most... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

ECM's chart for Friday morning shows the cold air sweeping down from the north... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961,gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

Morning all on this first day of Advent... Hopefully everyone has only eaten one chocolate... Looks likely that a northerly is on its way - it's going to be a blustery landing for Father Christmas in his helicopter in Priory Park on Saturday...

I'm a touch late, sorry! 4.1c please!