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Great Plum

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  1. Great Plum
    Well, the 06 GFS op is not an outlier, but definitely one of the colder options... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Good to see the mean dropping nicely though... Happily take the light blue line...
  2. Great Plum
    Charlwood and its metoffice predecessor, Redhill Aerodrome are often considered serious frost hollows in south east England...
  3. Great Plum
    4.3c please
  4. Great Plum
    Morning all, A crumb of comfort with this morning's GFS ensembles: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Whilst the OP run continues its relentless bouncing around, notice how the mean drops below average on the 8th Jan and continues in that vein for the rest of the run - more colder options appearing as well...
  5. Great Plum
    Of course, in 2009 / 2010, we had over 20 days of lying snow here in Reigate!
  6. Great Plum
    Without derailing this thread for it to become PC thread, I think much of people's scepticism stems from his refusal to divulge his methods - I certainly do not think they have been peer reviewed...
  7. Great Plum
    Morning all, certainly a little wet around these parts - have a look at this video... (I recommend muting it!)
  8. Great Plum
    We are just looking at this from a weather perspective? If so, Dalwhinnie...
  9. Great Plum
    If this is a lull, I hate to think what it will be like in a minute!
  10. Great Plum
    I drove back from Charlwood from our choir party back to Reigate an hour or so ago and that was some if the most difficult driving conditions - a hovercraft would have been more useful! The River Mole was coming across the road at Sidlow Bridge on the A217!
  11. Great Plum
    So, Christmas Day - a touch of frost to look festive for many: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.png Pretty cool daytime temps as well for most: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13217.png Blowtorch Christmas it ain't!
  12. Great Plum
    Interesting that the GFS ensembles show that the mean rarely deviates from near average temperatures from 25th... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png A couple of weeks ago, it was endless bartletts forecast for winter, then it was mild zonality for a month... - doesn't look too mild at the moment...
  13. Great Plum
    Some pretty spectacular lightning and downpours here!
  14. Great Plum
    Not for the first time, the GFS ensembles show a cooling off of upper air towards and post Christmas... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png The op is largely with the mean - a number of cooler options as well...
  15. Great Plum
    Not overly mild next week away from the south on this run... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png It does appear that we are moving away from the 'bartlettesque' set ups and the overly mild temperatures to something more 'average' generally, at least in temperature values...
  16. Great Plum
    Morning all, I was worried when I saw the 0Z this morning... Take a look at the ensembles - the op is well above the mean and appears to be 'off on one' http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png One to be binned?
  17. Great Plum
    A Scandinavian high... Only 336 hours away... What could possibly go wrong??? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png
  18. Great Plum
    And then a real monster at the end...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.pngHa!
  19. Great Plum
    Obligatory daft GFS low in early FI shocker... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png
  20. Great Plum
    A couple of colder options creeping in... I'll have the green one! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
  21. Great Plum
    Morning... Fog burning away here in Reigate... Potential for blue sky later I think...
  22. Great Plum
    I wouldn't expect any differences for the next 10 days or so - it's the post 240hrs where any major change will occur...Look at the ensembles... - little change until the 14th at the very least...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.pngChance of something cooler as keeps cropping up in FI...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.png
  23. Great Plum
    Well, there's much more scatter in the medium term on the GFS ensembles... This is a good thing as it is often a sign of change... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
  24. Great Plum
    Hi Tom, I should have looked more closely, thank you.
  25. Great Plum
    Hardly overly mild either...Plymouth: 11, 10, 11, 10, 12Manchester: 10, 10, 10, 7, 8Cardiff: 11, 9, 11, 9, 10Glasgow: 11.10, 11, 12, 9Proving that the further west you are, the milder it will be... 1 or 2 degrees over the average to the south west? Scotland does look mild though (lowland)
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