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Supercell 89

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  1. Supercell 89
    I don't know about anyone else but the Weather Channels diagram for mid may seems incorrect. Surely if the UK was under south-easterly winds from central Europe at this time of year it will at least be average if not warm, especially if the wind is originating from a warmer than average area. One positive note for this summer, the ENSO conditions seem to be recovering from being slightly negative to being more neutral, so hopefully the PDO will follow suit and allow the jet to be less amplified, also there has been a half decent surge in solar activity in the last month building on an increase during March which if it continues to rise again during May i think it may prove to tip the weather patterns more in our favour over the summer but its early days yet it and could easily change.
  2. Supercell 89
    Yes Summer 2005 is one of my favourites, if every summer was like that one in the UK it would be brilliant. There was some contrasts though in the August between northern parts of the UK and the south, living in Devon at the time August 2005 was persistently warm/ very warm dry and sunny ending with a cracking thunderstorm, the last time i can say we had a warm August, 2006 was pretty average since then they have all been cool and wet. In fact it reached 25c more times in August 2005 than it did during the whole of last summer and 2011 combined. In regards to this summer i think we are heading for another cool and unsettled one. The PDO is still trending negative, ENSO conditions from what i can tell are dipping into Weak La Nina territory, don't think the positive QBO will be enough to counter balance both of these factors should they persist, unless the PDO turns more neutral.
  3. Supercell 89
    Cheers Will have a look at that one. I use the data from NOAA usually as it displays the last 30 days so you can spot trends. Seems to be having an active spurt at the moment but who knows how long it will last. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt
  4. Supercell 89
    I'd agree with what Alex has said about the PDO and QBO. If it continues in the same vein as it is currently i would expect another cool but perhaps not as wet summer, certainly not as bad as last year, more in line with 2011 perhaps. But if the PDO does trend more neutral or even positive then we could get a half decent summer, still we will have to wait and see how it unfolds, the solar output hasn't filled me with much confidence of late.
  5. Supercell 89
    Had snow light intermittently all morning here in Reading had some moderate sized flakes for a while but its stopped again now and none of it has settled. Temperature currently 2.2c. As soon as i posted its started back up again, light/moderate flakes blowing around in the wind again now
  6. Supercell 89
    Thanks for replying Chino That's helped with the questions i had about the stratosphere In regards to the QBO my i always thought (although my knowledge on it isn't great) that generally a Negative QBO causes the the Polar Jet to be weaker and the Postive QBO causes the Jet to be stronger throughout any point in the year or Is this only the case when either the Westerly winds or Easterly winds reaches as you said the lower part of the stratosphere and able to be spread out to the polar regions? Also If this is the case then what caused the jet to be so amplified last summer other than the PDO being negative? Sorry for all the questions, i'm trying to understand how all the jigsaw pieces of all the different variables fit together
  7. Supercell 89
    Hi Chino, thanks for the informative post as always I have a couple of questions though, how does a late strengthening of the polar vortex allow for less northern blocking during the summer? Wouldn't the stratosphere undergo a late final warming as a result and allow the pattern to default back to northern blocking, assuming there are no other factors allowing for the northern blocking to weaken. Or is it because that the final warming will be more gradual therefore the northern blocking would take longer to gradually rebuild? Many Thanks
  8. Supercell 89
    I dunno which years i'd pick looking back, spring 2000 i dont recall apart from some light snow showers during the easter hols that year. 1998 again there's parts of the year i don't remember as the same with 1997 but there were some notable events still, also can hardly remember anything from the summer of 2011 because the weather was so boring. 2008 should be forgettable as it was just dull, wet and cool nearly all year but because of the lack of any temperature extremes and most notably the worst summer i've ever known it will stick in my memory. Warmest day of the year was during the second week in May and even then it was only 25c for one day. I'll stop before i rant on about how that summer was Though i will add 2005 is one of my most memorable years, had a nice selection of everything. Year of Thunderstorms as well it has to be said some real corkers that summer.
  9. Supercell 89
    Congratulations Stewart and all the best for the future as many others have said, you will be greatly missed. I too have learnt so much from your informative posts and really opened my mind up to how the world weather patterns click together and it's something I will continue to try and understand. All the best again
  10. Supercell 89
    Nice big flash and clap of thunder to the south of Reading about 30 minutes ago
  11. Supercell 89
    Stunning day here in Reading and feeling very pleasant out currently 15.9c likely to top 16c before the day is out. . Strange to think it was -1c last night as well.
  12. Supercell 89
    Light/ moderate snow in reading all morning. Just had a decent heavy burst for a couple of minutes but gone back to light flakes again now, unfortunately non of its settled but still nice to see
  13. Supercell 89
    Had snow for the last 2 hours here, ranging from very light fine flakes to fairly heavy sized ones. Got a very small dusting and still snowing very finely its almost like white dust. Current Temp: 0.7c Dew Point -0.3c. If we could get some heavier snow it would settle easily but i think we've had it for today, still 4th Consecutive day of snow i can't really complain
  14. Supercell 89
    Actually started snowing lightly again here
  15. Supercell 89
    Well an had a nice surprise of a brief Thames streamer setting up this morning giving us several hours of snow none of it settled mind but was still brilliant to see and got fairly heavy for an hour or so. The little snow we had from last night has pretty much all gone Cold and dry now and currently 0.8c hasn't been an higher than 1.1c today. Hopefully we may get one final blast of proper snow before winter's out
  16. Supercell 89
    Sleet finally turned to snow at half 11 last night and got some fairly heavy snow just after midnight. Nothing at the moment but still a dusting from overnight a chilly 0.3c out at the moment. Hoping the snow to the east may stretch this far
  17. Supercell 89
    Temp: 2.0c Dew Point: 1.3c Still rainy sleet here although the odd flake is distinguishable now, think wet snow could be here in the next hour fingers crossed
  18. Supercell 89
    Heavy rainy sleet here now. Temp: 2.6c and Dew Point: 1.6c keep on dropping
  19. Supercell 89
    Heavy rain still here. Temp: 2.8c Dew point 2.0c
  20. Supercell 89
    Rain turning to sleety rain at times temperature is dropping more quicker now. Currently 3.6c Dew point 2.4c
  21. Supercell 89
    Current Temp: 4.2c Dew Point: 2.9c dropping away nicely Also nice to see the Met Office have expanded their warnings for the snow.
  22. Supercell 89
    Temperatures peaked at 5.6c for dry bulb temp and 4.8c for the dew point about an hour ago but now starting to slowly drop. Currently: 5.2c with a dew point of 4.2c still raining lightly/moderately. Not expecting too much later but still think we may get some wet snow for a while this evening and overnight though not expecting it to settle but will be happy with just seeing some decent flakes falling
  23. Supercell 89
    Looks like tomorrow could be an interesting day for many I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction further south and west on the next updates.
  24. Supercell 89
    The models still showing a South-West correction for tomorrow's event, looking good for Central Southern parts of England for some heavy snow late on Sunday into Monday. Looking further ahead, could have another slider low during Wednesday so some interesting times ahead. Also even though the GFS has been pretty poor at times this winter it still does pick up pattern changes quicker than the other models, so the 06z may be onto something here, i seem to recall it showing something similar a couple of days back so it could be picking up with a new trend. Fingers Crossed
  25. Supercell 89
    The models are a depressing viewing this again this morning but i wouldn't be surprised if come next week temperatures and conditions are closer to average. Still don't think this winter is done with us yet and think maybe after week or so we may see some changes. Went to a climate discussion at our Uni the other day where they have been doing research on the stratosphere and what they have said about next month was very much singing from the same Hymn sheet as CH and GP and that a north-easterly pattern could well develop next month. Still a shame that this current cold spell is coming to an end, it has been fantastic in my view. Most of the country has seen snow at some point over the last week and again most of the country has seen lying snow cover for several days at least (i know there are some locations who have been so lucky with snow) and daytime temperatures particularly away from the South-West have struggled to reach much above freezing for at least a week. With one last burst of snow for some likely tomorrow i'd say been pretty good if you ask me
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