damianslaw

I'll go for 15.6 degrees, first number to pop into my head, hopefully we won't see such a temperature until the end of feb and hopefully it will be on a day that is very much a mild blip, but as others have said it only takes the fohn effect to have an effect and temperatures can rocket even in the depths of January

Well have to say quite pleased with the level of response so far, as I said in the original message you all have until 10th december to get those bets in. Its nice people are also quoting places but the real prediction is for temperature. I'll give a rundown come the 11th of everyones prediction.

Don't think such a thread exists... So I propose that people to bet what they think the lowest minimum temperature for the season will be this year (the new season having started back in august when we usually see the peak date for high minimums..) I think the lowest so far this season is -7.8 degrees in Saughall in Cheshire recorded on thursday - do correct me if I'm wrong (incidentally I have just asked this question in the frost discussion thread). Anyhow I am going for -19 degrees, I don't think we'll hit the magical -20 degrees figure. I am not giving a place but if people like the thread and consequently feel also guessing the place would be good then this could be added to the thread. As peak cold minimums have occured as early as mid december (anyone clarify this..), I think all bets should be made before the 10th Dec. However, people can still bet -7.8 degrees if they think this will be the lowest that we record all season. Then it will be a case of riding the winter out to see who has come closest or hit the nail on the head. Perhaps the role call should take place come the middle or March or so, as it is highly unusual if not unprecedented to record the lowest min for the season after this period (again anyone have the stats on this). If people don't like the thread then remove it.., but personally I think it will make riding the winter out even that bit more interesting.

This is a rather interesting topic debate. The observation of few cold decembers being follwed by cold januarys is interesting. I always believe winter doesn't start proper until christmas, having cold before christmas is always a bonus but it usually unsettles me as I always think ooh we are having it too good too soon, much like this summer i.e. a good warm introduction to june then well it all went pear shaped their on with... Motto is always treat an early cold spell in december with caution...

I hope la nina doesn't spoil things, just for once I would like to see a january that is proper winter. I can't remember the last proper wintry january, we've had a few wintry decembers and februaries over the last two decades but not a continuously wintry january, yes 1991, 1996, 1997 and 2001 were quite cold but none of these months saw any really snowy severe conditions. I think we have to go back to 1985 for the last truely snowy wintry january (i'm discounting 1987 as the cold spell didn't last the whole month. Come on winter 2007/2008 keep to the seasons!

Not sure whether 1998/1999 was a la nina year (i think some have said it was), but what was interesting about Dec 98 was how we had a rather potent albeit short cold spell early on in the month. I can't help but feel we may see something akin to that spell this coming month, however, I would hope that the rest of the month doesn't turn out like Dec 98 and certainly not the winter. It would be great just to have at least 1 moderate cold spell with low level lying snow at some point before christmas if only for it to make things seasonal. The ideal spell would come perhaps mid-month and then for a cold high to develop as we run into christmas time itself, wishful thinking!...

In a word I don't anymore, although I still read it. Every week they completely change their opinion and in recent weeks really have talked some waffle in their introduction. Take today for instance in their introduction they talk about how we were lon course to record a very mild autumn, it has been very near average- please get your facts right.

Really enjoyed countryfile forecast today for the prime reason Rob McCellwee presented it. Rob doesn't hype or try to indicate his personal preferences, he is quite old school in this respect. Had it been one of the usual current presenters, the week coming up probably would have been described as being largely chilly. However, Rob summarised the week as being less cold, which in fact is very true although maximum temps for the large part remain very near average. I wish Rob could do all the forecasts all the time a true professional.

One notable aspect of the weather during the last few christmases is for cold air to be very close to the UK on the big day itself. In fact since 2000, there has only been 1 christmas where the entire christmas period 24th-26th could be classed as mild that being 2002 a thoroughly unseasonal christmas spell of weather. Christmas 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2005 I would all class as average or cold, 2003 became cool on boxing day and even last year we were under the influence of high pressure so it was average conditions. Yes the odds of a white christmas are usually always quite low, but the oods of a cold christmas perhaps shouldn;t be if you factor in the trends of recent christmas's.

Point taken in respect to a widespread snowfall event, as the 2 most potent falls of snow i.e. the christmas eve blizzard that hit shetland and the far north of scotland and the 5/6 feb snowfall that hit sw scotland and cumbria were certainly quite localised, but for those areas hit it was a winter to remember.

Preety pleased with my prediction of 10.9 degrees, just 0.1 degree out and following on with being spot on with Septembers, i think i can allow myself a clap on the back.

I'm a lover of most weather except extreme heat (I class this as anything above 30 degrees) and also muggy close conditions with still air and no rain. I love the weather to have a seasonal flavour to it, i.e. what it should be for the time of year although it never seems to do what I think it should be doing according to the calandar. My favourite weather is snow, I absolutely love it. I also like really heavy rain and the odd storm but not too much of it. I love high pressure in winter that delivers cold frosty icy weather. My favourite airstream whatever time of year it is is polar maritime followed closely by arctic maritime. My least favourite by far is tropical maritime (what we have now please clear off...), which always seems to give to the saying but at least its mild, I absolutely hate that phrase! I like fog but realise it is the most dangerous weather condition.

Ooh my prediction of 10.9 degrees is looking an increasingly good bet at this stage in the month. Can I do the double... have to wait and see.

As someone else has previously stated my guess also of 10.9 degrees at this stage is looking a very reasonable bet. I am quite confident that I won't be too far off the final mark, could well be a repetition of Sept for me where I ended up being nail on but thought I was just outside. Certainly will make CET watching very interesting for me again this month Also just damn good to see the CET going down and down the switcharound in temperatures mid month in many recent months has been a notable feature.

Yes the last proper winter in my book. The most notable event as you mention for me being the snowfall of the 5th/6th February. I remember watching the forecsst on the day before I think it was countryfile and they mentioned the chances of heavy snow, but the results were the deepest fall I have any seen in my lifetime yet. The snow started at about 11 o clock and we were all told to go home from school during the afternoon, the snow didn't stop falling until about 4pm the following day. By its end their was about 18 inches of level of snow roughly a foot and half. My town Windermere was effectively 'cut off ' for 2 days and we had the whole of the week off school. I remember their being the legacy of the snowfall well into March in the form of deep snowdrifts on the local low hills. To just see another event like this would be very special, I am very patient.

I expect the CET to peak on Sunday, if the high pressure forecasted to build in mid week next week does so and provided it doesn't bring cloud cover at night I would expect by the end of next week for the CET to be close to near average, my odds of scoring 10.9 seem quite a good bet at this stage, i got it right last month, perhaps I'm on a roll! we shall see

Yes October has started on a fairly dry note here in Tyne and Wear, some rain on the 2nd/3rd night and spits and spots today but other than that nothing. It has also got off to a very sunny start, although next week is now looking rather cloudy in the main.

Going back todays progged synoptical evolution for the next 7 days or so, it is likely come mid month that the CET will probably be about 1 degree above the average, 1.5 degrees tops, nothing spectacular largely a result of the relatively near average minimas. One thing is sure is that we are unlikely to record anywhere achieving higher than 21 degrees, a figure in recent octobers that we have become quite accustomed to recording at least once somewhere i.e. London. Although it is looking like consistently above average CET maximums are likely for the foreseeable future, the figures aren't going to be anything special. This all begs the question when was the last time the highest maximum value recorded for October was lower than 21 degrees? Excuse me if we have recorded such a value so far this month but I don't think we have...

It could well be another month where we have very different cet values for each half i.e. first half looks at this stage of coming in above average but the second half could well do what Sept did be below average.

Me too, really surprised to see the final figure of 13.9 I was sure it was going to be 14. Like you I have only entered 3 times, so preety pleased with myself.

I do anticipate the METO seasonal forecasts with some relish. The Met is the only body that I take of notice of in terms of long range forecasts. However, this summer has taught me to treat with great caution very early seasonal forecasts, i.e. thinking back to the initial summer forecast they posted in April. It isn't until November that I will really treat their updated winter forecast with any real respect. I think as others have said at this stage the signals are very unclear and in such circumstances their stab is preety much what is to be expected.

Okay I am going for 10.9 nothing overly mild but yes above the average, however, I think after the first week temps will be preety much consistently at the average mark with at least a short spell perhaps near the 20th of below average.

If the current high retrogresses west and north later next week and a reload of arctic air comes our way, I think the chances of early snowfall on low ground for Scotland come the second week of october could be quite high.

Certainly a very fine balance going from todays' models of recording a below average CET however, I think it is still a little bridge too far. However odds of a sub 14 degrees CET are much higher and my initial prediction of 13.9 would be a sure fire good bet at this stage, it very much will depend on how cool the maxes for Monday and Tuesday are as from then on it is certainly going to be a cool week, but it might just have come a little too late to salvage us from recording an above average CET we shall see... Whatever the final figure the summary for the month will say near average and for that alone I am very very pleased great to see the words well above average not having been mentioned for a while..