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Eugene

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Everything posted by Eugene

  1. Eugene
    Yes any sw'ly flow doesn't look too mild with plenty of cold PM air to tap into to our West/Northwest, this is winter in the UK.
  2. Eugene
    Looks like a very disturbed pattern setting up for the first half of January, cold at times with some wintriness in the showers but mainly a cold and very wet pattern with the risk of localised flooding.
  3. Eugene
    Well i am shocked by the doom tonight, was expecting all models to show a very flat pattern yet i see some great runs, GFS 18Z ensembles only have a few flat members with the rest with varying degrees of cold blocked weather, just a few days ago there wasn't much chance of any type of cold for next week now we have plenty of interest.
  4. Eugene
    Parallel please, much less risk scenario.
  5. Eugene
    GFS 00Z FI showing the classic atlantic low/scandy high undercut you want for heavy snow in the midlands, and showing that even when the atlantic gets through its still cold with temps really struggling, great run with bags of potential, love when GFS is onboard.
  6. Eugene
    Has anybody mentioned NAVGEM 12Z, it's the pick of tonights runs which gives us the best chance of a scandy high forming.
  7. Eugene
    Yes phil UKMO is slightly better than ECM if you want less energy going over the top of the high and allowing HP to build further northeast but I still like ECM 12Z as it builds a strong high pressure cell over central Europe which would keep us cold and dry for quite sometime, nothing mild on the euro's after tomorrow. Like you say its fascinating to watch with many twists and turns to come for sure.
  8. Eugene
    I certainly hope so Phil, if HP sets up shop over us or the near continent it's alot more stable for cold than relying on an undercutting atlantic, I'm very worried about GFS though which I still feel is the best model, though none are infallible of course. I'm praying for the Euro's to be correct.
  9. Eugene
    ECM 00Z T+240 hrs looks like it could lead to a pressure build over us and the near continent, good runs this morning apart from GFS 00Z OP.
  10. Eugene
    Very good set of 00Z's from NAVGEM, UKMO, GFS P for cold weather fans.
  11. Eugene
    It's not mild this morning, lovely fresh morning after the warmth of a few days ago, also you've forgot to show minima, darkness vastly outweighs light this time of year, models nowhere near as bad as some are saying for xmas eve onwards.
  12. Eugene
    Guess you forgot to look at the reliable timeframe then :smiliz19:
  13. Eugene
    LOL, doesn't look too dissimilar to perturbation1 on GFS 12Z ensembles, cold and frosty xmas/boxing day :smiliz19:
  14. Eugene
    We won't have closure until March 1st. :smiliz19:
  15. Eugene
    It would be funny if perturbation 1 was correct with HP over europe ridging over england giving us a cold and foggy xmas whilst it was mild and breezy in scotland, with the trend of recent GFS OP's to build stronger HP influence just to our south it's a possibility.
  16. Eugene
    Yes i do as the most depressing charts ever are what we are experiencing right now At least that chart above would lead to something interesting.
  17. Eugene
    Its not an outlier tonight though, we need a miracle now to escape such a pattern, hopefully its transient.
  18. Eugene
    Thanks, gives me some hope for December 22nd/23rd with very similar charts to the one above.
  19. Eugene
    It's looking grim it must be said, not much cheer on the GFS 12Z ensembles with only hints of something better at the end, I'm expecting a poor ECM 12Z OP tonight.
  20. Eugene
    Yes Jason that trend on many GFS OP runs lately is a west based -NAO setup. I'm like johnholmes very cautious over anything cold more than brief PM NW'lys until much more evidence at a much more reliable timeframe.
  21. Eugene
    Yeah me too but unfortunately after a brief clearer cool snap next weekend the mild muck looks like returning hopefully not for long.
  22. Eugene
    People continue to go out whatever month it is, its a joy to go out without worrying about being stung, sunburnt or getting heat stroke. January is a fantastic month with tons to do unlike the utter boredom of July with nothing much happening.
  23. Eugene
    It's been pretty dry here this December with a lovely crisp feel, you can keep you're horrible mild muck, most of us don't want it.
  24. Eugene
    Great to see both ECM and GEM 12Z limit that mild sector mid next week to just Wednesday, back to lovely clear PM air on Thursday, lets hope they are correct
  25. Eugene
    Yes we have but that is all set to change starting next week, atlantic zonal spells aren't reliable enough to rely on cold, I would much rather have a HP cell slap bang over us lasting for weeks on end giving reliable cold, its going to be a nightmare planning anything over Christmas now not knowing what the temp will be day to day or the weather conditions.
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