Something people fail to mention is the low that moves SE'wrds over us from the NW mid next week was formed in polar regions, this is a cold low so doesn't need a properly cold feed, I think its what they call a Polar Low but am not sure as they are hard to detect.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
I particularly like UKMO 12Z T+144 hrs chart tonight which would really offer some harsh night frost in a very slack flow, very chilly chart indeed even better if snow is already on the ground to freeze nice and hard
Well I did post in my status update that all we need is high pressure to rise to our NE to give southern areas a higher chance of snow than this week and I did post the GEM model which was the only model going for a pressure rise to our NE before dropping it but now other models are starting to bring that idea back.
I prefer the slacker GFS 18Z P for this timeframe with colder nights.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs1831.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs18017.gif
On January 2nd people were posting charts for Jan 10th showing a stronger euro high just to our south saying it's a long way to cold, yet what happened is many in northern england saw snowfall on Jan 10th/11th with the potential for more tuesday and later in the week.
He said flow direction hard to determine with likely transition to freezing fog / frost which sounds wintry to me, whose to say the anticyclone won't retrogress in February, that is when the atlantic typically dies down.
Fantastic point Frosty, the models 7/10 days ago were looking dreadful for the upcoming week with a mild zonal flow dominating, charts change all the time >7 days ahead so best not to take much notice of them unless they show a repeat of Jan 1987 of course.
Much better GFS 18Z FI run with a more amplified run in FI than GFS 12Z which was flatter with the azores high getting too close to us unlike on 18Z, temps also colder than average next weekend with night frosts.
Yes looks pretty cold in the midlands too with many days below 5C and when you add the wind chill factor it's going to feel freezing, enjoyed this winter so far.
I'll say this again, December wasn't too bad at all with some very cold days just after xmas, tired of people making it sound like it's been a mildfest so far, much colder from mid next week.