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Eugene

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Everything posted by Eugene

  1. Eugene
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif Yuck, we have agreement across the board now of this horrible setup just in time for christmas weekend.
  2. Eugene
    GFS 12Z has temps around 5C on friday in most of england, air frost friday night but not severe, not sure sure where this severe cold is coming from for england, i guess high up in the lake district but hardly anybody lives there.
  3. Eugene
    Yes there seems to be a real lack of cold zonal Decembers followed by a cold blocked January, i know there have been some mild zonal decembers followed by cold blocked januaries, Mr Data how about a list of mild zonal December/Januaries followed by a cold blocked February.
  4. Eugene
    Mr Data could you please give us a list of cold blocked Januaries that followed a cold zonal December.
  5. Eugene
    Looks like a rather chilly and dry pattern setting up for us midlanders, the occasional front but moving through quickly and then chilly and breezy with maybe some scattered wintry showers, wrong time of year really though for wintry showers with hail, much better in the spring with solar heating.
  6. Eugene
    Current charts have rescued my CET forecast, HP would do it no good at all, still chilly charts though and i could be slightly too high but in with a much better chance than if HP took over.
  7. Eugene
    I voted for a cold winter with lots of snow but there are two other choices that are a very close second and third for me. I want a cold winter with lots of snow but i think what we will get is a near average/slightly above winter with near average slightly below average rainfall and sunshine slightly below average, the most boring to be honest
  8. Eugene
    I don't think many people are getting their hopes up for a few days around the 25th of december, statistically white christmasses are very rare indeed in the UK especially the southern half. Looks like that forecast was made in November, HP over the UK mid month is looking very unlikely currently.
  9. Eugene
    Sorry i messed up the poll, now fixed it, you can now vote for choice extremely wet.
  10. Eugene
    To make up for the lack of rain this year we need lots and lots of rain throughout the next 4 months or so, I have created a poll to get an idea of what most members would prefer.
  11. Eugene
    Yes ecmwf does suck not as much as BOM 12Z though, TBH i would take GFS 12Z OP tonight over any run BUT the GFS 12Z ensembles show quite alot of runs that push HP even further south letting in westerlies, looks like the jet might prove too strong for even GFS 12Z OP to come off, hopefully the models are overdoing the strength of the jet but the danger signs are definately there that it might increase the strength as we get nearer.
  12. Eugene
    Best we enjoy the cold spell beginning of this week because apart from a possible few days end of the week the ensembles collapse any high quickly with the atlantic steam rolling in flattening the pattern into a zonal westerly.
  13. Eugene
    Yes but they will both drop as the night progresses, over 12 hours of cooling left, a breeze will stop them going too low though but temps slightly above 0C and below in rural areas is nothing to be sniffed at, we arent under any anticyclone.
  14. Eugene
    lol liam to see shockingly mild check out BOM 12Z, a horror show if there ever was one for us coldies.
  15. Eugene
    lol you didnt have to wait long, i'm southeast of you and temps are down to 4C now, the cold arctic air is moving southeastwards this evening/overnight, more patience needed from you
  16. Eugene
    So you would hate snow on November 30th but love it on December 1st, does it really matter, snow in November especially from mid month isnt any different to December snow apart from around christmas i guess to make it like a christmas postcard look.
  17. Eugene
    Might have to bin my December CET forecast if GFS 12Z comes off, cold highs will do me my CET guess of 5.1C no favours at all.
  18. Eugene
    Yes hence my December average/near average CET forecast, i had a feeling things would revert to near normal this december, much more normal than last years exceptional once in a lifetime december thats for sure and i hope that we can get a cold mid to late winter this year, really hoping February will be the coldest month this winter like some amateur forecasters go for.
  19. Eugene
    Not sure you are correct to be honest looks quite chilly start to the week with the sub 528 dam line covering the whole country for the first time since the spring, slightly above on thursday granted but nothing that mild before cooling down again by the end of the week with another shot of chilly arctic air. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn602.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1622.png
  20. Eugene
    Got upto 11C breifly here before quickly going down to 9C, compared to the balmy temps this autumn it feels quite cool out in that brisk westerly wind.
  21. Eugene
    Was so close to not recording an air frost this Autumn but temps got down below 0.0C on monday morning.
  22. Eugene
    You will definately see an air frost this December in Leeds.
  23. Eugene
    For purely selfish reasons i am hoping for a dry(with some snow) and cold winter, nothing worse than lots of rain to go with short daylight hours and long nights when the potential for the coldest nights is at its greatest.
  24. Eugene
    Which averages are you using gavin?.... if 1981 to 2010 then you are going for 5.1C like me, i think you'll be very close. Hope the rest of your winter forecast comes off too sounds like a pretty good winter for cold weather fans.
  25. Eugene
    While technically its not winter alot of people do think November is winter probably due to very long nights and it getting dark early just after 4 pm. Autumn has been absolute pants for cold weather no air frost here at all, one thing for sure next spring will be colder with alot more frosts
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