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Eugene

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Everything posted by Eugene

  1. Eugene
    The harshest frosts in the upcoming cold period look like being sunday and monday night with a light continental drift.
  2. Eugene
    Spring is my favourite season, summer and winter seem so dull nowadays and autumn ridiculously warm at least in spring even in warm ones you get alot of cool to cold nights and like aaron says you get wild temperature swings we don't see in other seasons anymore, would love a day of 21C in April followed by a cold front bringing snowfall and air frost at night so much more interesting than the dullfest of this week.
  3. Eugene
    Yes a good explanation, spring is miles better for frosty nights than autumn and for snow as well actually, another reason for colder weather in spring along with slow warming of the cold sea is the cold arctic airmasses are also more prevalent to our northwest, north and northeast than in autumn, not unknown to get arctic air from a direct northerly in June even.
  4. Eugene
    Yes autumn was very warm even if the upcoming spring is warm it will record alot more cold nights, i saw hoar frost in the countryside in early May last year.
  5. Eugene
    I don't agree with those who say this has been a typical winter, in a typical winter you would expect nights to be alot colder than they have been, even in average winters you record alot more ground/air frosts than this one.
  6. Eugene
    Exactly kold, maybe he's looking at charts from a week ago
  7. Eugene
    The control is excellent in FI for those wanting lots of snow,
  8. Eugene
    Yes TEITS, your post sums up my thoughts perfectly, i also didn't take much notice of stratospheric warming events a few years back but ever since i have slowly come around to thinking they do have an impact on our weather down the line, excellent thread easily the best on any weather site and i keep checking back to read the experts views, learning all time like you say.
  9. Eugene
    Yes about time for us coldies aaron, GFS 06Z looks like an end of zonality to me with blocking to the east taking over.
  10. Eugene
    Cheers for the table sebastiaan . Quite a decent amount of SSW's in late Feb into March on that list so we have a decent amount of time yet, if i recall correctly it snowed early April 1989 around easter i think, on the table it says Feb 22 89 so just over 5 weeks later we got a cold ENE'ly, mmm very interesting. Yes April 1989 was a cold month with some northerly blocking. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1989/Rrea00119890406.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1989/Rrea00219890406.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1989/Rrea00119890421.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1989/Rrea00219890424.gif
  11. Eugene
    lol well ECM 12Z is much better than other models tonight. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif Nice and frosty.
  12. Eugene
    Yes mapantz looks like we'll just have to get used to cool zonal, at least it offers some cold shots and the mild sectors are squeezed so no silly springlike weather like now. All eyes on February for some decent blocking and of course March.
  13. Eugene
    Very unsettled GFS 12Z run, UKMO 12Z at T+144 hrs is still cold with the HP cell over europe still affecting us while on the same timeframe on GFS 12Z its windier southwesterlies.
  14. Eugene
    It wasn't the case for Jan 9th GFS 12Z ian which had cold easterly winds, you are probably right in general though.
  15. Eugene
    When do stratospheric warming events typically finish and what is the latest recorded date for a major SSW event? Any chance of a colder spring this year with high latitude blocking in April or will we most likely continue the warm springs?
  16. Eugene
    Thanks guys, there is something about late snowfalls and late arctic cold spells that fascinates me, good to know i'm not the only one, not sure why the mildies hate cold spells in spring as they mostly bring lovely crisp blue wonderful skies with warm sunshine. Don't agree, there have been some wonderful cold and snowy spells in february.
  17. Eugene
    Btw im desperate for GFS 12Z to come off, that run would please me more than anyone else but you have to be realistic at the same time so not to get my hopes or others up too much in what has been a dreadful winter for us cold weather fans with hardly any frost at all.
  18. Eugene
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif Looks like the atlantic winning on UKMO T+144 hrs and in that kind of timeframe most ensemble runs agree, most runs are near average and nowhere near as promising as GFS 12Z OP in that timeframe, yes further into FI some runs improve but im looking nearer than that currently. Still a chance GFS OP will come off but i would say the risk is small.
  19. Eugene
    http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png GFS 12Z ensembles are quite poor compared to the OP, nowhere near as good as some would have you believe on TWO which is pretty misleading to be honest.
  20. Eugene
    Wouldnt it be great if this winter went from a very bad first half to massively improving in the second half of winter from mid Jan til Feb 29th A classic winter for two extremes from very mild to very cold.
  21. Eugene
    You would of liked Feb 1978 and April 1978, i actually think we'll see more air frosts in April and May this year than last years November and December. Conor HP gives the coldest nights in winter you know I'm feeling more upbeat today about our late winter prospects
  22. Eugene
    Not sure why nobody else is not mentioning the risk of fog as the week progresses apart from Matt Hugo, after this awful mild breezy winter this is something different to look forward to.
  23. Eugene
    Yes mid feb at best is my opinion too of when the effects of the predicted major stratospheric warming event will affect the UK's weather, i think the second half of February will give us our coldest outbreak of the winter. Snowfall can definately stick around in Mid February, i think feb 14th is on average the coldest day of the year in parts or somewhere around that date, yes the top layer of snow is likely to be melted easier exposed to sunshine than lets say late december but it shouldnt melt it all if the cold airmass is sufficient, its after mid March when lying snow in prolonged sunshine disappears fast.
  24. Eugene
    Quite pleased with the output this morning, a drier picture in the week ahead until the weekend at least and i think not as mild as it was looking a few days ago, temps might be near average in inland parts of england and wales with some all day fog and low cloud in parts, some people forget its only the first half of January with a still weak sun.
  25. Eugene
    This winter is turning into an absolute disaster, zonal all the way into FI, even next weeks high is a mild high.
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