Eugene

Hilarious somebody thinks this run will turn zonal, looks blocked to me and look at the lack of mild TM air, hardly any at all out to our west :o http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1861.png http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1922.png Still think though HP will be the dominant weather next week more what GFS 00Z showed, cant believe people think zonality will take over in mid February traditionally one of the quietest times of the year. Also would hardly call at least two weeks of cold weather a short skirmish like some say, two weeks is nothing to be sniffed at with our climate.

The chances are very high hollisk, could be some great hoar frost scenes end of the week into the weekend.

Dont worry arctic colder continental air coming back into the midlands tomorrow, it will freeze any remaining snow/slush. No zonality for us midlanders for a few weeks yet, staying cold.

About as un-zonal as you can get. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

Amongst all the moaning and groaning at FI output we have some very cold dry air coming our way tomorrow, -10C 850 hPa line clipping the SE and some very cold dry air being pulled off the conitnent, back to the freezer from tomorrow night, brrrrrr. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn422.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4210.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4817.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

Alot of members have lost the plot to be honest, saw all these doom posts in MD and was expecting to see some very poor runs yet GFS 00Z is cold almost throughout and UKMO is cold still upto T+144 hrs, i thought upto T+72/96 hrs was the most we could trust, they quickly change their tune dont they and after the coldest February night since 1986 some still arent happy have they forgot what crap we have had to put up with before last week seems like it.

LOL yes xena i wonder how many people moaning about a thaw live in a big town, head to higher rural areas of the midlands like you and it wont thaw much at all.

Plenty of sunshine since Feb 1st with easterly winds too.

Yes i think that is what will occur though that doesnt necessarily mean it will include most of the UK outside the SE Hopefully a cold spring for once so we might get a nice hot summer.

Intense cold pool over europe being harder to break down than alot of members were thinking, i think steve murr and TEITS only posters to out of this with their reputations intact.

Apart from mid month 13th to 17th and since last friday, it was rubbish, only slightly above average sunshine figures due to the very sunny clear blue skies on the few cold snaps we had and near average PM air, TM air delivered nothing but dank conditions.

I find it quite unbelievable after an awfully mild winter with no northerly blocking we have a strong scandy high just to our northeast currently and people are moaning and groaning like there is no tomorrow, when i saw all the talk of a possible very cold spell ahead on Sky News and the BBC i thought i would come back on here and see the enthusiasm but all you see are people moaning and groaning. No wonder people like me stay away more often from this site nowadays, best to just watch the TV forecasts and in my experience scandy highs like on the charts they showed dont just go away overnight

This winter apart from 5 lovely very cold days 13th to 17th has been awful BUT some do have short memories it seems as the previous three winters had some interest for us coldies, one bad winter doesnt mean we wont get some good winters in the future, with summer not offering anything special since 2006 that is what you should be most concerned about

A continuing trend on GFS 00Z of HP taking over our weather for a pretty prolonged period, i did say the other day i had a big hunch HP would take over end of Jan Temps pretty cold by day with air frosts at night and dry

Today was a very dull and wet day and the winds weren't from the east either Christmas period was very dull with mild westerlies and last week until the cold front moved south on thursday gave some very cloudy days and nights. Nothing beats airmasses of arctic origin for lovely clear landscapes and amazing sunsets in autumn/winter and spring, last friday and the weekend gave me lovely vibrant sunsets, cant say the same about today. The nights from 13th to 17th were amazingly clear for sky gazing, great for astromony, who must be pulling their hair out if they are looking out at the night sky tonight and not an easterly in sight.

Thankfully the 12Z ensemble mean is colder in FI with more of a continental flow off the continent, hopefully a return to the excellent cold ESE'y flow like early in the week for end of January into February.

GFS 12Z is one of the most dire runs for cold weather fans i've seen recently with stalling LP centres around iceland pumping up southwesterlies, awful pattern to get stuck in.

Cool zonality is useless for us in the west/south midlands for us wanting decent moderate to severe air frosts, the recent very cold spell was a million times better than that early december one, temps are near average in cool zonality here even slightly above at night because of too much breeze, i recorded -5C earlier in the week with some wonderful hoar frost scenes lasting all day with temps just above 0C and below in the countryside, it was a very good cold spell that went mostly unnoticed by the model discussion looking for phantom easterly crew.

I think the synoptic pattern for late January will be HP to our northeast/HP over canada and the UK and north atlantic dominated by LP systems at least it feel seasonal for the UK and with slack ish LP systems stalling over us could be very chilly at night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m5.gif - Thankfully the ensemble mean keeps it pretty chilly on saturday and alot cooler than ECM 12Z T+120 hrs OP which i think will be a mild outlier at that range, 00Z ECM ensembles had a similar mean so i expect similar again at 12Z.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png - Would lead to a very interesting February for cold weather fans, a shame it's so far away but the PV does usually weaken by February and it is one of the driest months of the year on average with a higher probability of anticyclones in our vicinity than November/December and January so you never know.

So according to those charts they favour a mild wet February, near normal March both temperature and precipitation wise and a below average April on temperature and precipitation, i'm with them on April but February and March could have a sting in the tail IMO.

But usually very pessimistic about cold charts retron is more confident of something nearer to ECM's evolution, brave call because after T+144 hrs it could easily go wrong.

The models are pants tonight after next tuesday, yes ECM 12Z is great but its completely on its own, nobody would take notice of one run if it was the only mild run so the same should apply to this one cold run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn181.png - Just shows you you don't need synoptics that good to get mid winter cold, there has been a real lack of just simple things like a HP cell directly over the UK for a long time now.