Eugene

GFS 12Z is a great run for storm weather fans after a brief respite next week.

Hey it was extremely dry in the midlands last year, had no trouble indeed with outdoor activities at all. Even cool summers are warm enough for most, its winters that are the main problem not the others three warm seasons.

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Ths winter is turning into one of the most depressing, i find it quite sad people straw clutching for small signs of a change when there isnt any, its the same flat zonal pattern with HP close enough to the south to stop any exciting weather with cloudy mild conditions prevailing, i really cant see any hope at all for a decent severe cold snap, we havent had proper arctic air yet, this modified PM rubbish just doesnt cut it im afraid, its too breezy for any decent frosts too even when you get PM air, its amazing there is no HP spells on the horizon and we havent had any for ages and ages even the late september heat was HP over france and not here, its beyond a joke and i dont hold out much hope for next winter either as mild winters come in pairs and nowadays that is about 5 pairs in a row Mild winters are never fun, we get mild weather almost 9 months of the year so why would anyone want it every single month, i find as i get older i hate mild winters even more not the reverse.

Spring next week, maybe winter will arrive in Mid April.

Yes geordie its absolute nonsense to say it can feel more springlike in mid january than late november when sun strength is the same, if he meant mid feb i would agree but not only mid january whicch is only a week away if mid jan starts the 10th and it definately wont feel warmer than than the last week of november with the same conditions, actually because of colder sea temps/soil temps i feel mid jan feels ever so slightly cooler than late november, you see more insects around in late nov than mid jan. Got to say this is a strange time to start such a thread when its felt like spring already this winter and you wouldnt start autumn threads in only very early July when heat can last until october 1st like last year.

I think we are in for another very warm year, this winter will be very mild so we have a head start with warm sea temps and warm soil temps, this winter reminds me of the awful winter of 1988/89 and the summer that followed that had some hot spells before the proper hot summer of 1990, i feel we can write this winter and next winter off.

I wouldnt mind winter first. It felt like spring here many times in the second half of december. The UK now has no properly defined seasons and they arent much different at all nowadays, very boring indeed.

lol i couldn't help but check in model discussion and yes i was right nothing for prolonged cold on the charts, i dont know why they put themselves through it to be honest, best thing to do is just go and do other things like aaron and i and not put yourself through the torture. I did go to GFS T+384 hrs and its exactly like the pattern we have now by the time we get any anticyclonic weather it will be too late for cold inversions by day, i am desperate just for a HP cell to be centred over the UK but when we do if we do it will be too late for winter daytime cold as february it can start to feel warm under such conditions, you need a really cold feed unlike in december and january.

I had nightmares of an unseasonably warm christmas, opened my eyes and realised it was a reality.

lol some members on TWO think this ecm chart is encouraging for decent cold, nope dont think so at all, loads of warmth being pumped up to our west which would topple over us bringing unseasonably mild conditions like over christmas, the third warmest on record. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Wow it feels so warm its unbelievable, I dont think even the biggest boxing day discounts will sell much winter gear, garden equipment might sell well though.

Absolutely no signs of anything that cold for the next two weeks, one of the mildest winters for a while on course i think, i did forecast a mild winter but today even took me by surprise, i thought it was the summer solstice and not the winter solstice here in the balmy midlands.

Cold zonality hasnt delivered much cold here, i mean proper cold unlike last december, yes jan and feb could have some proper cold but to be honest with you with the flat zonal pattern and strongly positive NAO we need a miracle, i will be writing off this winter for proper cold blocked weather by mid Jan if i dont see some improvement, knowing our luck we'll see strong northerly blocking in April when its too late.

Just cold rain here, i'm just not high enough, i'm sure the south warwickshire cotswolds hills did well though.

I don't think you can get much worse than the GFS 12Z run, at least future runs must show some slight improvements over that run is the only positive thing i can say.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.png - Could it really get any worse for cold lovers, some toasty 850's there.

Small improvement on GFS 12Z regarding mid next weeks ridging HP cell, slight improvements on each run could keep us seasonal

I think the only areas that can be very confident of a bout of persistent snowfall in the west/south midland area are areas with some decent elevation, alot of towns in this area outside of brum are quite low so more of a wintry slushy mix here looking likely, i doubt i will be waking up to a decent covering of snow friday morning.

Interesting enough some GFS 06Z perturbations are showing HP moving northwards over the UK from mid next week, could we actually avoid any really mild weather at all :o

Patterns looks awful for next week onwards but at least the cold is set in at the weekend so any mild upper air will have a slow effect on temperature rises into double figures just hoping we can avoid the double figure maxs somehow and let us have a seasonal christmas weekend.

I've had 3 air frosts since September, -2C the coldest a few nights ago.

I hope im wrong but i see most of lowland midlands not seeing much of the white stuff at all this week, looks a cold and dry picture to me for us in the west midlands.

Is anyone like me can't seem to get too excited over any snow potential this week with the threat that is looming soon afterwards next week? Just cant get up for any short lived snow that is quickly gone to be replaced by warm southwesterly winds just in time for christmas.

The most worrying thing is usually you can think of several ways we could avoid such an awful setup at that kind of timeframe but it just looks a very stable evolution to me with no way out, ensembles and all models are firming up on the euro trash scenario next week could last a while too unlike most mild sectors this could go on for days and days.