Eugene

They are above my head now for most of the midlands and the Southeast. I'm sure summer blizzard and gavin d are feeling silly now criticising my posts where i said it will be a cloudy high, next time instead of letting your preferences cloud your judgement, try and judge it in an unbiased manner, even the pro's(BBC/UKMO) are coming into line with my thoughts from last week, go and email them and criticise them that they are wrong and its a beautiful sunny high dawn to dusk why dont you and see what kind of reply you get if any.

Not in this thread in particular but on netweather in general, i did say last week that early this week fog could be a problem rurally, be slow to clear and only lifting to low cloud in places, the BBC and UKMO are now saying this also that low cloud and mist will be pretty persistent in places especially rurally.

Peter gibbs last night showed a map showing parts of the midlands low cloud/mist/fog not clearing until around 2 pm, doesnt leave much time to enjoy the warmth, i think it might not clear at all in rural valley parts of the midlands, i did warn of this but no one took much notice.

GFS 12Z - No sign of an end to the high pressure domination, remaining very mild with little rainfall. Just thought i would steal some of gavin d's thunder, not entirely true what i said but sounds good to gavin

Disappointingly cloudy day in warwickshire, everytime i saw a bit of blue and a minute of sun the cloud rolled back in again, much be so frustrating for sun worshippers wanting an early tan.

Very interesting info damian, i didnt know that, i think northerlies are quite common in April too.

Not in the central midlands it hasnt, month started chilly and foggy that took ages to clear, got cold last weekend with some heavy rain sunday, heavy rain wednesday and apart from thursday morning cloudy ever since.

I'm liking ECM 00Z and GFS 06Z in bringing some cold 850's next weekend before HP builds over the UK and just to our east, much better high than the cloudy one we have now.

ECM 12Z has it much colder feeling by day than early next week in its latter stages, will feel raw in a brisk NE'ly wind.

I find those people quite weird but next week in the morning rush hour people walking or cycling to work will need their winter wardrobe still as it will be cold in the morning with fast temperature rises late morning onwards once any fog clears, can be a pain to people to know what to wear, too cold to go out in t shirt at 8 am but too warm for a coat at 2pm.

I've seen people walking around in gloves ands scarfs the past few days http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.png

Yes that is looking the case now, i was optimistic wed/thurs morning of an inversion setting up at the surface allowing colder nights and warmer feeling sunny days after any fog clears, that i find interesting , what i find boring and this is looking the most likeliest outcome now is a cloudy high, yes some brigther spells possible but lots of cloud around with blink or miss it brighter spells. The cold high on GFS 06Z in FI is of much more interest to me with much more sunshine.

TBH since i last looked the orientation of the high has changed, chances have increased of more cloud around, notice UKMO using the word mild and not warm.

How can it get tedious when it hasnt even started yet, this week hasnt been warm and sunny, its cloudy today and doesnt feel that warm out.

I see you like fog, me too, any thoughts on the fog risk for early next week?

Temps cold sunday night too and GFS underdo's temps too by a degree or two, could be a pretty widespread air frost sunday night http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn11417.png An inversion looking likely like la bise said. Stll at this time of year some wide diurnal temperature ranges look possible where its sunny, still think fog is a high risk and rurally will be slow to clear but afternoons looks very pleasant once it has, i feared a boring cloudy mild at night high with not much difference between day and night but its increasingly not looking the case now

Looking at dew points on GFS 12Z i am now confident the cloud will clear by saturday night

What do the stratospheric experts feel will occur later next week, do you feel we will have a big HP cell over central europe like GFS 06Z OP - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.png Or do you think we'll see the models trending to move the HP cell further north to sit to our NE like GEM 00Z does? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2041.gif

Yes la bise just a shame its not Nov to Jan where such warm looking charts would produce some proper cold inversions and it would remain cold all day even in sunshine, of course too late for that now but not too late for some cold foggy nights, we arent past the spring equinox yet so nights are still quite long and it can get cold under calm clear conditions especially rurally.

Also you're saying temps will be 0C to 5C at night, well true in urban areas but im talking rural areas where there is a big contrast between urban built up areas and rural valley areas, the west/south midlands is made up of valleys where it gets very cold even in the summer at night under calm clear conditions, temps will definately go under 0C early next week if its calm and clear for prolonged amounts of time in rural areas. Even the UKMO mention the risk of occasional fog and frost.

Yes i just saw, well thats your opinion but mine is that fog will be widespread in central areas of england, not saying its going to last all day of course but it will take its time to clear in rural areas, last week it didnt clear until midday and out walking it was really thick in parts of the countryside and it didnt feel warm under that. Lets wait until early next week.

Probably a long shot but a few ensemble members do build the high further NE than others, i notice GEM 00Z has an attempt at this also, something to watch. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-19-1-240.png?6

Also as well as some not mentioning the risk of fog they are also forgetting that while the afternoons will feel warm when/where the fog clears the nights will definately not feel warm with rural temps 0C or just below and it will take time for it to properly warm up. we arent in Mid April onwards like some members seem to think. PS, its rather comical somebody on TWO posting sunshine amounts will be high by posting charts,LOL i dont think computers can forecast any fog that forms under HP days away.

Conditions to me look perfect for some thick fog in the morning rush hour early next week. March 1997 http://www.wetterzen...00119970310.gif http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

It would be good if instead of some certain somebody just posting ensemble charts showing a line above the average line with a few smug smilies at the end( which does nothing to show new members anything about the complexities of anticyclones in early to mid March), to discuss different possibilities of conditions under HP, ie will it be a cloudy high will it be a clear at night cold high with fog slow to clear to leave mild afternoons. HP doesnt mean that the weather will automatically mean warm clear blue skies by day even in mid March it isnt May yet so even if ensembles show above average 850's doesnt mean a cool undercut is not possible.