gottolovethisweather

Only 14.2c here as I type this. What has caused these conditions to be so far removed from what was expected.

I think the field might get a little waterlogged. Having said that, it is forecast to be showery outbreaks so even we might miss out. It begins in the overnight period and extends into tomorrow afternoon, slowly transferring East. PB, what are you up to, in this field?

Yes, indeed. As a moderator, I am supposed to be moderating my own behaviour but it sometimes gets the better of me. What is it doing in your patch William, anything remotely heavy yet.

Don't tempt him yet further.

For those wondering what the latest radar imagery might look like, I attach a screen grab and a rough approximation of where the best activity is currently. Added to this, the general progression anticipated by the showery outbreaks. Bear in mind, things are supposed to develop yet further and most of the Thundery action is suggested to be outside of our region. Time will tell as ever.

Where do you live William? Seriously, as mentioned elsewhere within these forums, I'm sure it is a lovely place (in fact I must Google it sometime) but not every post requires confirmation of your location in each sentence or observation. Having said that, I do appreciate all your reports and for the record, did I ever tell you I live in NEWBURY, yes, Newbury, West Berkshire. My observations from Newbury are as follows, overcast, 22.3c AT after a Max of 24.3c, 17c DP and a Falling Slowly Barometer reading of 1011.2mb That's enough from me about Newbury, Newton Poppleford or anywhere else. Where else is there any weather of any worthwhile comment within this region.

Indeed, perfect weather as long as the overnight Temps get to cool the house down enough, I'm happy for it to not get too much above what it is now. An above average month once again, in terms of mean Temperatures looks quite probable, given the final week looks largely dry, settled and warm to very warm.

Day flying moths are quite likely to be Silver-Ys' I reckon. They tend to hover over the likes of Buddliea etc, flicking their wings "ten to the dozen". Like birds, they have a distinctive jizz (behavioural characteristics) these moths and butterflies.

Thanks, I guess it must high based cloud and something's up in the mid levels, which is currently leading to evaporation. Hopefully AWD can advise?

Plenty of showery rain slowly edging East right now, according to the radar. Raidan, over in the convection thread reporting the possibility of Thunder, perhaps unlikely as he suggested but there was a heads up from Phil Avery earlier today that there could be an overnight rumble in places.

Well if we must have rain, let's have something measurable. Since April, only May has produced a smidgeon above average rainfall in my neck of the woods. Today's band broke up as it pass through the valley locally and I measured a stunning 1.6mm, the monthly total now a stunning 11.8mm, I kid you, not!

Indeed, I spotted that too. Local forecast suggested the area effected firstly would be parts of Berkshire and Oxfordshire before transferring East and clearing the London area by about 4pm. I think they've got that wrong as I have intermittent sunshine now and the West Berkshire area appears not to be in the area of risk.

Indeed not a lot to add to AWDs analysis above but as Tamara stated in the MOD thread, a fair part of tomorrow and Saturday at this stage, does look a bit manky for us down South. However, the real promise begins after the weekend. The general trend for next week and potentially beyond is still there, in spite of conflicting interpretations of the latest afternoon and evening's batch of runs. Longer-term, yes, the further West you are, eventually fronts may want to encroach on your patch, but overall one shouldn't complain, if its warmth and sunshine you're after. The farmers will be happy after the weekend, I bet.

Hi, Just for a bit of fun, would you be so kind, as to take part in a poll I have up and running on naturestimeline regarding current conservation practice. http://wp.me/p1OoP4-ox As fellow followers of nature's ways, I suspect you all have some ideas as to why our approach to conservation is largely failing the Natural World. The more take part, the merrier and the more meaningful the results, ready for future discussion. Thank you kindly. gottolovethisweather

Different day http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77461-south-west-central-southern-regional-discussion-2nd-august-2013/?p=2767720 However, consensus is building for a high pressure building from the SW type scenario, in just a few days time. A lot of the talk is about heatwaves in the MOD thread right now and although, it is impossible to predict Temps at this stage, I remain convinced that part deux is looking most probable.

I suspect you mean the Lock, Stock and Barrel. However, there are a couple of others. On a weather theme, I best get at least one weather-related posting in today. The first few heavy spots of convective type rain are beginning to fall in Newbury, oddly falling from a largely clear sunny sky.

Drab in Newbury, not when I'm about town, surely.

Surely, that Is not allowed? Make sure to visit the Hatchet and/or The Diamond Tap. Good food, good atmosphere on most occasions.

Impressive forecasting skills, I must say. I take it, you've got access to the full NW extra suite, if not, perhaps you should subscribe to it. Thanks again, looking to your posts each day at the moment, as I'm sure are many others.

I don' know what you're basing your forecasts on and how you produce those maps but I can only applaud you for your efforts AWD. Thank you muchly. As for longer term, as AWD stated a day or two back, with confirmation from fergieweather, things look to change around the weekend. From there on in, it could be heatwave part deux. For a sound judgement of the next few days out into FI, you should look no further than the post (which is showing a solid trend) reproduced below, courtesy of Frosty039 from the MOD thread. Yes, this purely from the GFS but the ECM, GEM et.al are also on board now, broadly speaking. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The GEFS 12z mean brings a glorious end to summer 2013, next week soon becoming dry, sunny and progressively warmer from the south as high pressure builds in after the relatively cool and unsettled weekend, the developing fine spell next week could persist until early september because these ens mean charts look very benign with a calm atlantic and the PFJ up near iceland or even further north. These are great charts and there is also a good chance of tapping into hotter continental uppers as time goes on, this run indicates widespread mid 20's celsius and nearer high 20's c, low 80's F across the south/se. Attached Thumbnails [*] [*] [*] [*] [*] My "gut feeling" remains that this cooler blip will become a distant memory in 5 to 7 days' time and the warmer largely settled weather should last into late August and maybe the beginning of September, as Frosty also suggests. My original "gut feeling" post here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77461-south-west-central-southern-regional-discussion-2nd-august-2013/?p=2762079 was off the mark regarding the first half of August but I feel confident that things will hot up in time. Now, if the nights can remain reasonably cool, PLEASE, I might not get a third bout of heatstroke.

Indeed sebastiaan, but I certainly welcome IFs thoughts and others for matter. Especially considering I don't have anything to add myself but will be following the new thread once its opened up, in turn hoping to further knowledge in the absence of GP.

Going against forum rules a little but I just wanted to post a link to a blog I've found for our Bristol residents to browse, which I thought may be of interest. http://www.bristolwildlife.com/ As for the weather, 16.8c at the moment so a relatively cool and cloudy mid-morning spell right now. The odd shower can be expected later.

Yes and pots of gone over Jam and suchlike are very good at attracting them in. Not that I tend to encourage killing Mother Nature's beauties, I would rather embrace the wildlife. Besides, who was here first, on our good earth, the Common Wasp or Common people. Cue Pulp song renditions.....................

Thought I had ventured into the wrong thread there, for a minute.

Yes, precisely that I would say. Summer has been largely, shall we say, summery on the whole, which as a result tends to benefit a lot of our wildlife, especially the warmth and dry loving insects. Also, there is increasing evidence of more wildlife-friendly practice taking place across our towns and villages, motorway and dual-carriageway verges (yes, really) and more appropriately across vast swathes of agricultural land. See below for my post regarding this from the other thread. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77201-where-are-all-the-butterflies/?p=2730378