gottolovethisweather

Whilst this is not specific to our region, it may effect some of us, the below is taken from the Convective thread, courtesy of Supacell. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- At first glance I cannot see the potential for today but then I remembered it's not all about CAPE. Having said that, although GFS are forecasting only a small amount of CAPE - the values shown by NMM and WRF are more substantial. However, we then have the fact that we have 30-40 knts of deep layer shear, 30knts of 0-1km shear which increases to 40-45knts overnight, strong helicity (with some very strong helicity moving through Wales and into NW England overnight) and you can see why the storm forecasting's clever people think there is the risk of something this evening and overnight. A lot of rain to come too, so flooding may be of biggest concern. Although storms are by no means guaranteed, IF they do form they will likely become organised with the possibility of supercells, large hail, 40-50mph wind gusts and possibly a tornado. I don't see this being a widespread lightning fest though, but clearly lightning and thunder would be present. Low risk but moderate to high impact I would say.

Similar to you as with my Maximum was 21c today, bar the 30th July when I managed only 20.8c, my records stretch back to the 3rd July when I last failed to exceed 20c. I must say, it is a pleasure to be able to keep the house cool by opening all the windows and let the breeze blow through. After July's prolonged warmth I still see August being above average by day and by night. We are currently at 1.9c above the long-term mean and I can't see that dropping much in the first half of August at least.

Indeed AWD, Bodmin Moor was quoted yesterday by Helen Willetts as to the probability of getting an inch today and a further 75mm (3 inches) out into Monday.

Well I'll be damned, I thought 28c or so was the highest Maximum that I would achieve today but the rise in Air Temperature, as others have stated is very rapid indeed. The skies cleared around 8am or thereabouts and the AT was only 17c at that stage. By mid morning I had reached 20.4c, hence my pessimism. Since 10:30am however, I have rocketed up to 29.2c as I type. In fact, the AT has risen 5c in the last two hours. Obviously this scale of progress should peter out somewhat but I can see me reaching 32c/90f again, at this rate. All this, in spite of only 17c uppers, whereas its 20c uppers or thereabouts over parts of the Southeast. A very warm and hopefully potentially thundery night ahead of us.

More floccus type clouds here. Possibly a precursor for some overnight activity, well at least the Beeb forecasts suggested the chance of something happening. If anybody has some CAPE or LI charts out to tomorrow morning, maybe that is where the likelihood of Thundery showers exists.

Hence my crude interpretation of more than 50% on-topic discussion. Thank you Paul for making your intentions clear too.

If your old status involved at least some occasional weather related input (just like my own ) then carry on as you were. As Paul states, that applies to all of us, mods included, there is no heirachy. Knowledge is not the issue here, as we all still learning, even the pros.

For the record. No moderator is to be feared. Hell, some of you have even met this scary one. All moderators are allowed to step in and moderate, i.e. attempt some control, albeit this is sometimes futile in spells of boring weather. However, for me, I wouldn't be here or in any of the netweather forums, bar the specifically non-weather related threads if I were not looking for some kind of weather related matter. Furthermore, we all have a passion for it, so it can't remain boring forever. The rules are that we should at least be able to enjoy each other's company and talk weather, more than 50% of the time. Speaking of which, the radar currently indicates the bulk of the rain is way North of this region with this neck of the woods seeing only a little bit of boring patchy rain. One day of inferno like heat coming tomorrow, a briefly drier start to Friday morning, there after a wetter weekend but still only sunshine and showers.

Excellent captures Azazel. Whilst I don't know what constitutes a true Supercell, it certainly seemed worthy of being one.

I do like the sound of that AWD. Those dealing with flooding and leaky roofs and ceilings will not. Perhaps the European Monsoon season has started. In fact, if you were to Google it, AFAIK there is such a phenomena, maybe its shifted North with the Jetstream.

Oh dear PB, not good news. I've recorded 12.2mm worth's of drip drip drips now I'm afraid to say. A pretty sunset to boot, though, it has to be said. And yet another peel of Thunder (25 plus from a couple of cells today). Only one or two strikes could be deemed as close by today, however.

2.0mm here.

I would not want to be travelling on the A34 Northbound in the next hour or so, judging by the impending supercell like structure heading that way. I think the heaviest of the rainfall will be as AJ pointed out, in the vicinity of Andover, Whitchurch, Basingstoke, Tadley area in the coming couple of hours. Time to batten down the hatches in that neck of the woods.

Hmmmm. Have I put the proverbial mockers on it?

I never need an excuse to go off the rails and neither do you it seems. Sounds like fascinating work, in all seriousness. Judging by the radar, tis looking highly likely that Newbury might get an overhead storm shortly. Estimated arrival time 1815BST. So far, despite a fair few distant rumbles, storms have gone due North and South of my location.

Well done Ben. Optimism is always better than pessimism, as in life itself.

At long last, I believe I am hearing distant Thunder.

0.2mm here so far in Newbury, Thunder nowt, fascinating skies though. Still managed to get to 23.3c so the run of Maximum Temps above 70f stretches to 26 days and counting. More heat to come later in the week. Keep the excellent captures and reports coming, guys n gals.

Strike near Lymington according to the radar and Ben appears to right after all with the best of the action looking likely to skirt the SE. Please be aware though that more could develop anywhere within the heaviest bursts. One or two in the SE and one south of Milton Keynes, all within the ten last minutes. Things are kicking off for some.

Its actually showing more of a Northerly movement than that Ben, AFAIK. So maybe I might get lucky and as AWD stated earlier, the IOW looks likely to get hammered. Just started hammering down here, in fact.

And Northwards up to Newbury, aye AWD. Please say its so. I wouldn't rule out a few more rumbles anywhere from Devon Eastwards over the coming hours.

Rather a lot of cloud-fuelled liquid heading our way, it seems. The further West you are in the region (bar the far SW) the greater the likelihood of heavier pulses of rain with potential for further embedded Thundery outbreaks. Suffice to say, other developments are likely as we head into the evening. That would be my analysis of the situation over the coming hours. See the current radar imagery below.

Not a technical view, but boy! those skies have a Thundery look to them, here in Newbury. I think it's gonna pee down later.

Unfortunately not AJ, but I suspect our paths will cross on some occasion in the future.

Despite AWDs confidence, it seems the weather has once again fooled us all (including the pros) as there are some electrically enhanced cells potentially heading into parts of East Devon and West Dorset over the coming hours. Whose to say there won't be some decent storms after all.