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Everything posted by gottolovethisweather
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Ended up hot and Betty Swollocks in Newbury with my WS reporting 27.2c. At last I hit 80F and I anticipate it getting hotter still in time. All this after a cloudy start for Lookup's birthday and what's more, I'm stone cold sober as I'm on Ibuprofen for back pain relief. Aside from that bit of useless information, I do feel this current weather pattern is reminiscent of 2003. We all know what happened then come August the 9th. Scorchio. As others have stated the models have slightly underplayed the progress of the warmer Temperatures thus far and with predictions of 91F early part of next weekend, it could go higher still.
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Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13
gottolovethisweather replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I hope you aren't referring to this post, Peter. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77164-model-output-discussion-12z-300613/?p=2730993 -
Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13
gottolovethisweather replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, let's hope most get their fix of vitamin D or whatever it is from the beautiful sunshine on a daily basis. At that rate this ole house will be getting a bit uncomfortable for sleeping but beggars can't be choosers. -
Where are all the butterflies?
gottolovethisweather replied to Cleeve Hill's topic in Space, Science & nature
Monoculture landscapes along with climatic factors such as wet cool summers and cold winters have led to diminishing populations of most UK butterfly species. The aforementioned conditions affect butterflies’ overwintering prospects, however, with much talk of these issues in the media, their prospects should improve, along with other beneficial insects. As something like over 70% of our land is farmed, this has to be an area of focus, if we are to save butterflies from being another local wildlife extinction statistic. Flower-rich and grassy margins are incorporated across farmland more widely now and along with doing our bit in our own gardens, we may reverse their fortunes. -
More than that, allegedly it was back in 2006 that we last had proper Summer heat for a sustained period. Bring it on, although it might get a bit too oppressive for me at night even if not currently forecast. Longer-term this could be a very impressive spell of weather given the lack of HP influence in Summer recently.
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Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13
gottolovethisweather replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Isolated storms perhaps or wind convergence zones? Personally, I wouldn't get wrapped up in the specifics as they will change on a day to day basis with members from certain areas perhaps getting disappointed by a strengthening wind or additional cloud cover on certain days. At the end of the day, the rarity of UK wide High Pressure is there to be largely enjoyed by almost everyone. I will be one who will be watching the daily maximum Temperatures unfold. -
Scorchio. It does make smile though when recently, certain folk in the MOD thread attempted to pick out cloud amounts and the corresponding peak Temperatures at such long-range. Yes, they may be doing it by sound analysis of the various model output but my guess is that these models haven't a handle on how this heat wave could develop. I often go on gut feeling and I'm thinking certain prone locations could end up with several days of Air Temperatures in the low to mid 30s with much more oppressive nights than the above currently suggests. Past weather patterns often give you a good idea of what to expect in the future and you couldn't rule out a very localised daytime storm or two in the long-term either.
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Hit 70f already here so I wonder how high my Air Temperature can get. 25.7c being the recorded high so far this year at my patch. June still returns a departure from the mean of about -0.8c making it the thirteenth consecutively cooler than average month. Maybe July will see a turnaround in these statistics.
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It can certainly feel like that at times but in the last couple of weeks, folk from the Isle of Wight and the Falmouth area of the UK would disagree with you. As for my location, there has also being nothing to note either. Is the Jetstream causing these foreign cells to take a different path, I wonder? Maybe the French and one or two of the EU members are seeking working on a UK anti-storm detecting system to encourage tourism away from the UK.
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Isn't that called "looking at the weather", Adi. Re: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77020-thunderstorm-potential-and-activity-for-wednesday-19th-into-thursday-20th-june-2013/?p=2719508 and the concluding sentence. My eyes are peeled on the encroaching mass in the SE quadrant although my area may be hard-pressed to get much from it I guess.
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Well I must say although the following is from yesterday, perhaps what my eyes are looking at is the Cold Front mentioned in Nick F's forecast. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess= Looking at the latest radar capture, the frontal mass out heading NNW from the Eastern side of the English Channel could have some impact of parts of our region into the afternoon. No sferics detected within that band for now but maybe some diurnal heating can do its job for a few of us. I live in hope.