gottolovethisweather

Hearing distant classic deep-based rumbles in Newbury now, very distantly of course.

AWD, Ian F or someone in the know. Can you inform me as to where Tuesday's developments are going to come from. Am I right in thinking it will be in connection with the frontal mass out to the West and Southwest. I don't foresee much hope of an imported MCS given the proximity of all that cloud, currently.

Hopefully not long before this little lot turns electrical for some in this region.

To me, I think the emphasis might be shifting to homegrown storms and English Channel imports later this afternoon into the late evening before a brief period of calm and then the frontal rain mass out West moving slowly trudges Eastwards across the UK during daytime tomorrow with many embedded storms within it.

Mental storm due West of Le Havre across the English Channel according to the radar and some are cells are developing mid channel, all the while drifting slowly Northwards. Anybody in Weymouth and Swanage area should be looking out to sea. The English Channel is finally going to be our friend, I can feel it in my water.

Clouds are now bubbling up here out NW of me in Newbury, most likely larger versions of Ac Cas from what I can see from my crap viewpoint.

Please say its so.

No, AJ I didn't see that post and can't unfortunately view the Ac Cas from my house at the mo. Nevertheless, I popped out to look and it is a wall of heat out there. This surely has the best potential in years, if not since the heydays of the 80s and 90s. BTW, I like the idea of Barbury Castle AJ, but it could be an up well before dawn job instead of a late one, given the BBCs latest expectations or perhaps I should say GUESS.

Not according to Sainsbo, whatever I'm now on 32.1c now and my Davis for the first time I can ever remember is indicating High Heat warning. PB, you were spot on as always.

Hi PB, I'm keeping to the cooler rooms in the house at the mo but having peeled back the curtains there are one or two clouds, nothing AcCas like and there shouldn't be any until late Evening I guess. Bar an isolated shower through daylight hours, the real action for us (Newbury) looks to be nearer dawn tomorrow morning. Wash Common is relatively high especially the fields across from me. The best bet would be either Combe Gibett/Walbury Hill or the ridgeway.

Hi Sainsbo, so what Temperature is bang on 90f, I'm guessing 32.4c?

I must say I never knew that but yes, perhaps I should have said they trundle slowly around the vicinity without going anyway fast. From memory, you are quite right to point out back-building of cells. That is precisely the situation we need and may well get tonight. Daughter cell after daughter cell after daughter cell.

Well just a hour and a half after the above post, I've hit the magic 90f (currently 32.0c) and I suspect 91 to 92f is on the cards for me. Meanwhile 95f could be gettable in an isolated location somewhere in the UK given we have another hour to an hour and a half or more of clear skies and increasing humidity. If these sort of conditions don't make a vast part of Southern England go bang, I don't know what will.

Further to my post above, I must state though when I get one, it has a tendency to get stuck in the valley so the best ones can rumble on for hours. DP readings up and down quite frequently during the last couple of hours, currently sitting at 19.6c and did reach 21.7c at 12:43BST. My Air temperature may well surpass the 31.4c it reached during the 13th July. Barometer 1014.3mb falling slowly.

I must say, many a time in the dim and distant past, I have cursed storms that went due South to North out to my West, eg. Swindon westwards. Whilst at other times or even during the same event, a line of storms went South to North due East of me, say Reading Eastwards. PLEASE DON'T DO THAT THIS TIME.

A couple of flashes viewed distantly to my South in the last ten minutes along with a visible illuminated gust front. Night night all.

Predictable, it must be said. That's why I like the storms that pop up unexpectedly as the models always seem to struggle with these foreign imports and associated airmasses. A good increase in AcCas here now and I think cells are indeed starting to develop ahead of the MCS, i.e. central southern and possibly further East may be in with a shout as the morning progresses. Yes I did say morning, happy 22nd July folks. A couple of days to remember are ahead of us.

We are still in with a chance Mark. Our part of the region should see something from 1am onwards I'm thinking at the moment.

Some impressive amounts of strikes being picked up by the netweather radar. Not expecting anything my way in that first clusterf**k However things should ripen as we go deeper into the overnight period for those of us nearer central parts of Southern England. Keep those curtains peeled back.

FWIW, my thoughts on the next 48 hours remain unchanged, as stated previously. At this stage, I feel there is potential almost anywhere (UK wide with the exclusion of Scotland) hence the conflicting model data and media forecasts. French import round one may well be in the early hours of tonight. Another round of action is forecasted with high confidence into the overnight period of Monday Night into Tuesday. Then there's Tuesday daytime. This situation is very similar to winter snowfall events, where changes occur right down to <t-6 hrs.

Further to my posts from earlier. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77272-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-16th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2743174 and http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77272-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-16th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2743384 It does appear a fair few of us should keep the curtains open tonight for a decent light show. Just look how the MCS like feature has largely kept intact over several hours and is actually spawning daughter cells, as I type this.

If you do, so will the media forecasters and even the pros.

Just a quick post in response to a question in the SW and CSE thread, concerning tonight's potential. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77272-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-16th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2743384

Andy, this was my thoughts on it from earlier. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77272-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-16th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2743158 It sure is looking a beast but can it maintain when or if it eventually does decide to head North.

For those that haven't read it. I like the sound of the latest netweather headline. It's Going To Go Bang - Storms Brewing Popular Pages Michael Fish Presents His Weekly Weather Forecast 10 Day Weather Forecast - Ten Days At A Glance An End To The Heatwave In Sight? - Weather News UK lightning detector - ATD Lightning Detection Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar Powered by AddThis Thunderstorms and torrential downpours are set to take the headlines away from the heat during the coming few days as the fine spell finally breaks down, but even so, Monday is likely to be the hottest of the heatwave with highs peaking at 33-34c, maybe even a 35c possible. The reason for the change is low pressure approaching from the southwest, destabilising the atmosphere and eventually pushing fronts up across the country, so we can expect some very lively weather with intense storms which will bring the risk of localised flooding, hail and strong gusting winds. As is often the case with showers and storms though, not everywhere will catch the nastiest conditions. Starting Monday, a few storms may well have made their way into southern England and Wales overnight, but in the main it's a dry start to the day. The humidity will give the day an oppressive feel and temperatures will quickly climb through the morning, with much of England and Wales pushing into the high twenties. For southern England - particularly central and eastern parts (away from the slightly cooler coasts) 30c will be exceeded in many parts, with southeast England the likely hotspot with 33-35c on the cards. It's a touch cooler as you head further north, Scotland will peak into the mid-twenties, with the east coast being the exception as low cloud will tend to keep a lid on the temperatures here - the far northeast of England may see similar too. From late morning the heat will start to trigger some potentially very hefty storms, with southwest England and Wales likely to see them initially before they slowly drift northeast into the Midlands, northern England and eventually southern Scotland during the remainder of the day. More storms with torrential rain are liable to develop in other parts of England and Wales during the latter part of the day and overnight too, again slowly pushing northeast. Tuesday sees more heat and humidity, although not quite as hot as Monday, and more potentially vicious storms to watch out for - which may well become quite widepsread by this point too. Into midweek, we keep the risk of storms and downpours, and although it will eventually become a little cooler and fresher, it'll still be very warm with highs up into the low to mid twenties for many. Summing up though, some potentially very nasty weather about during this week, so keep an eye out for the latest forecasts during the coming days.