gottolovethisweather

For those that haven't read it. I like the sound of the latest netweather headline. It's Going To Go Bang - Storms Brewing Popular Pages Michael Fish Presents His Weekly Weather Forecast 10 Day Weather Forecast - Ten Days At A Glance An End To The Heatwave In Sight? - Weather News UK lightning detector - ATD Lightning Detection Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar Powered by AddThis Thunderstorms and torrential downpours are set to take the headlines away from the heat during the coming few days as the fine spell finally breaks down, but even so, Monday is likely to be the hottest of the heatwave with highs peaking at 33-34c, maybe even a 35c possible. The reason for the change is low pressure approaching from the southwest, destabilising the atmosphere and eventually pushing fronts up across the country, so we can expect some very lively weather with intense storms which will bring the risk of localised flooding, hail and strong gusting winds. As is often the case with showers and storms though, not everywhere will catch the nastiest conditions. Starting Monday, a few storms may well have made their way into southern England and Wales overnight, but in the main it's a dry start to the day. The humidity will give the day an oppressive feel and temperatures will quickly climb through the morning, with much of England and Wales pushing into the high twenties. For southern England - particularly central and eastern parts (away from the slightly cooler coasts) 30c will be exceeded in many parts, with southeast England the likely hotspot with 33-35c on the cards. It's a touch cooler as you head further north, Scotland will peak into the mid-twenties, with the east coast being the exception as low cloud will tend to keep a lid on the temperatures here - the far northeast of England may see similar too. From late morning the heat will start to trigger some potentially very hefty storms, with southwest England and Wales likely to see them initially before they slowly drift northeast into the Midlands, northern England and eventually southern Scotland during the remainder of the day. More storms with torrential rain are liable to develop in other parts of England and Wales during the latter part of the day and overnight too, again slowly pushing northeast. Tuesday sees more heat and humidity, although not quite as hot as Monday, and more potentially vicious storms to watch out for - which may well become quite widepsread by this point too. Into midweek, we keep the risk of storms and downpours, and although it will eventually become a little cooler and fresher, it'll still be very warm with highs up into the low to mid twenties for many. Summing up though, some potentially very nasty weather about during this week, so keep an eye out for the latest forecasts during the coming days.

I like the sound of the latest netweather headline. It's Going To Go Bang - Storms Brewing Popular Pages Michael Fish Presents His Weekly Weather Forecast 10 Day Weather Forecast - Ten Days At A Glance An End To The Heatwave In Sight? - Weather News UK lightning detector - ATD Lightning Detection Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar Powered by AddThis Thunderstorms and torrential downpours are set to take the headlines away from the heat during the coming few days as the fine spell finally breaks down, but even so, Monday is likely to be the hottest of the heatwave with highs peaking at 33-34c, maybe even a 35c possible. The reason for the change is low pressure approaching from the southwest, destabilising the atmosphere and eventually pushing fronts up across the country, so we can expect some very lively weather with intense storms which will bring the risk of localised flooding, hail and strong gusting winds. As is often the case with showers and storms though, not everywhere will catch the nastiest conditions. Starting Monday, a few storms may well have made their way into southern England and Wales overnight, but in the main it's a dry start to the day. The humidity will give the day an oppressive feel and temperatures will quickly climb through the morning, with much of England and Wales pushing into the high twenties. For southern England - particularly central and eastern parts (away from the slightly cooler coasts) 30c will be exceeded in many parts, with southeast England the likely hotspot with 33-35c on the cards. It's a touch cooler as you head further north, Scotland will peak into the mid-twenties, with the east coast being the exception as low cloud will tend to keep a lid on the temperatures here - the far northeast of England may see similar too. From late morning the heat will start to trigger some potentially very hefty storms, with southwest England and Wales likely to see them initially before they slowly drift northeast into the Midlands, northern England and eventually southern Scotland during the remainder of the day. More storms with torrential rain are liable to develop in other parts of England and Wales during the latter part of the day and overnight too, again slowly pushing northeast. Tuesday sees more heat and humidity, although not quite as hot as Monday, and more potentially vicious storms to watch out for - which may well become quite widepsread by this point too. Into midweek, we keep the risk of storms and downpours, and although it will eventually become a little cooler and fresher, it'll still be very warm with highs up into the low to mid twenties for many. Summing up though, some potentially very nasty weather about during this week, so keep an eye out for the latest forecasts during the coming days.

Said like a professional. I personally think there is an outside chance that the MCS like feature could head towards the South Coast over the coming hours and from there, who knows. The BBC are suggesting a chance of isolated overnight outbreaks so I'm happy to go with their guidance, now that we are into <t+12 hour timeframe.

Too true on both counts.

A strike showing up just now, off the coast of Weymouth, methinks that can't be right?

Interesting that you mention the fact that you see the main potential as tomorrow night as that is where the media guidance is pointing along with concerns over flash flooding probability. I agree about the FAX charts as well for general guidance but even then, these aren't infallible, more especially with French imports.

Things are definitely warming up here in terms of humidity and Northern France is brewing up signs of an MCS. One hour ago, it was this size. An hour later, it's turning into a bit of a beast. The main question is where is it heading? Come to daddy.

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php The clusterf**k of cells has begun AJ , where are you. Ah I see.

At this stage, I feel there is potential almost anywhere (UK wide with the exclusion of Scotland) hence the conflicting model data and media forecasts. French import round one may well be in the early hours of tonight. Another round of action is forecasted with high confidence into the overnight period of Monday Night into Tuesday. Then there's Tuesday daytime. This situation is very similar to winter snowfall events, where changes occur right down to <t-6 hrs.

All change late on Tuesday. Back to pleasant conditions bar the odd storm, we should all be able to cool our houses down from there on in.

Thank you AWD, some more wise words as ever.

Yes Mulls, it will not work out for your area, I know because I've seen the future and the forecasts are accurate out to the end of the next heatwave in the summer of 2016. Sarcasm aside, it's worth reiterating fergie's post from last evening which read as follows. Too early to be deterministic re mesoscale developments and extent of any storm organisation... models will struggle with that level of detail right to the wire. But more consensual agreement on storms becoming more widespread spreading NE Tues-Weds, with profiles for SW/W Country indicative of more isolated airmass storms by Thurs. Fingers crossed and all's well than ends well.

Well it may be cloudy here but it certainly don't feel cool in Costa del Newbury. 19.8c AT, 79% humidity resulting in a 16C DP.

I Cumbria Marra I, on 20 Jul 2013 - 23:06, said: was always going to happen, the east of the country is an absolute storm magnet. Ee-oor ee-oor E ought to know better than come up with those predictions. Widespread storms are a-coming and I think some will be newsworthy. Patience is required, everyone. Nighty night. Best go to bed I may be making an ass of myself.

Sunday (today) or Monday (tomorrow)? whatever, Happy Birthday. I can feel a stormy week a brewing. Mind you, I did say that over a week ago and seemingly I could be on the ball.

Whilst we're praising TEITS for his intuition, he wasn't the only one to see how things are forecast to pan out over the latter part of July. Just follow each link back to the original quote, noticing the timescale. I suspect there were many others who got it right too. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77241-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-11th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2736608 I truly respect everyone's views on here and this is when this thread works best. Let's keep it this way in what COULD be a memorable week to come for many in the UK.

Thank you Supacell, some sound advice. Whilst it's fun analysing each and every run, as in the MOD thread, it should only be used as guidance as there is a risk of overanalysing things.

The reason for this confusion IMO is France. Bar development of isolated homegrown storms, the professional forecasters with varied model availability are often fooled by developments of MCSs up from the South. Right now something is brewing just across the English Channel. I'm not saying it will actually make it to our region but it does need paying attention to. Hence once the atmosphere is unstable it is often advisable to stick to actual observations, i.e. sky, radar and satellite watching. To me, the fun is also in the chase of may happen unexpectedly rather than getting obsessed by numerical model predictions. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77272-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-16th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2742328

Referring to the final sentence in my post from earlier in the MOD thread. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77295-model-output-discussion-00z-190713/?p=2742074 I did mean to say the main breakdown could arrive rather unexpectedly overnight from the South, instead of will. However, I feel the first chance of an MCS is tonight for parts of the far SW. Whatever happens, there is a long week of radar and satellite watching ahead of us.

Don't worry, the heat and humidity is yet to build and it will go bang in prone locations.

Far too early to tell at this stage, but I would advise you follow the thread below for updates nearer the time. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77285-convective-storm-risk-discussion-17th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2742065 The MetO Fax Charts are good guidance tools right up to t-24 hours. However, I suspect there will be some home grown storms thrown in and the main breakdown will arrive rather unexpectedly overnight from the South. Worth realising that the models generally struggle with these MCS types up from the South.

Just wanted to throw this in here, as I posted it to a couple of regionals. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77187-hot-and-settled-spell-discussion-and-temperature-reports-july-2013/?p=2736601 So far. So good. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77241-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-11th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2736608 Out into the period in question and beyond into FI. Model's firming up on continued heat, YES. Model's boosting chances of increased heat and increasing chance of violent storms, pretty much YES. 30c breached on every day this working week, I certainly think that's a resounding YES bar a failure tomorrow. Anyway, enough blowing of one's own trumpet as I’ve been suffering of late in this heat but it's a case of putting up with what we got, I guess. I am finding it hard to focus on the tasks at hand and next week will make that especially difficult given the added impetus of potentially violent storms thrown into the sultry mix. I have a feeling this Afternoon’s suite of model outputs are going to be MENTAL.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77187-hot-and-settled-spell-discussion-and-temperature-reports-july-2013/?p=2736601 So far. So good. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77241-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-11th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2736608 Model's firming up on continued heat, YES. Model's boosting chances of increased heat and increasing chance of violent storms, pretty much YES. 30c breached on every day this working week, I certainly think that's a resounding YES bar a failure tomorrow. Anyway, enough blowing of one's own trumpet as I’ve been suffering of late in this heat but it's a case of putting up with what we got, I guess. I am finding it hard to focus on the tasks at hand and next week will make that especially difficult given the added impetus of potentially violent storms thrown into the sultry mix. I have a feeling this Afternoon’s suite of model outputs are going to be MENTAL.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77187-hot-and-settled-spell-discussion-and-temperature-reports-july-2013/?p=2736601 So far. So good. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77241-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-11th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2736608 Model's firming up on continued heat, YES. Model's boosting chances of increased heat and increasing chance of violent storms, pretty much YES. 30c breached on every day this working week, I certainly think that's a resounding YES bar a failure tomorrow. Anyway, enough blowing of one's own trumpet as I’ve been suffering of late in this heat but it's a case of putting up with what we got, I guess. I am finding it hard to focus on the tasks at hand and next week will make that especially difficult given the added impetus of potentially violent storms thrown into the sultry mix. I have a feeling this Afternoon’s suite of model outputs are going to be MENTAL.

As Sparkicle states above. If you're wondering where the storms have gone, blame the PSB and the CIN. http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7I5UaB7mx4