gottolovethisweather

FWIW, my hunch is for things to go boom in the timeframe aforementioned by Tamara earlier, something within the region of mid afternoon to late evening. Hopefully some home grown tastiness. Or maybe sooner - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77339-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-23rd-july-2013-onwards/?p=2752822 Eyes on the skies, sat pics and radars from here on in methinks.

Just my rather amusing take of things from the adjacent regional. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77339-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-23rd-july-2013-onwards/?p=2752816

You could always attempt your own forecasts. Just remember, the dynamics of the atmosphere around our island are ever changing, sometimes literally by the minute. IMHO, when rain, snow or whatever is forecast to come in from the West or North, the pros invariably get things right. When precipitation comes in from the East or South, that is when the failings occur.

Hi, I'm not sure if anyone caught this post from the MOD thread, but I think this is fair assessment from OMM of today's unfolding situation. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It is tempting at this stage to claim the forecast from yesterday was all wrong, but this is still a developing situation. The frontal boundary right now has a N-S orientation but upper winds are still SSW so everything is currently shifted further E. But the satellite presentation shows the boundary is forming a wave to the S and storms are still developing just to the E of it. What I find particularly interesting is the huge storm cell that moved up the Channel overnight. It's appearance on satellite gives every impression of it being a meso-cyclone; the cirrus outflow is like a mini-hurricane, so it is so powerful it has created this. I don't recall seeing such a storm in a long time. http://www.sat24.com/en/gb Rain seems to be gathering to the S, so anything might happen as the day goes on. The model longer term outlook brings us firmly into Atlantic air, at least for a time, but the prospect remains for another plume situation developing in a few days. Fascinating weather!

Hi, I'm not sure if anyone caught this post from the MOD thread, but I think this is fair assessment from OMM of today's unfolding situation. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It is tempting at this stage to claim the forecast from yesterday was all wrong, but this is still a developing situation. The frontal boundary right now has a N-S orientation but upper winds are still SSW so everything is currently shifted further E. But the satellite presentation shows the boundary is forming a wave to the S and storms are still developing just to the E of it. What I find particularly interesting is the huge storm cell that moved up the Channel overnight. It's appearance on satellite gives every impression of it being a meso-cyclone; the cirrus outflow is like a mini-hurricane, so it is so powerful it has created this. I don't recall seeing such a storm in a long time. http://www.sat24.com/en/gb Rain seems to be gathering to the S, so anything might happen as the day goes on. The model longer term outlook brings us firmly into Atlantic air, at least for a time, but the prospect remains for another plume situation developing in a few days. Fascinating weather!

Indeed. nice to see those stats. I'm under a continuous run of Air Temperatures maximums above 21c (70f) for twenty days and counting. During that time, I have had six maximums of 30c (86f) or above. I don't see this changing in the immediate future, yes cooler but still near average (21c - 23c) and I have a hunch the heat will return.

Further to the above posting, tomorrow is set to remain in the warm to very warm category for a few in the region. Jay Wynn mentioned further possibilities for Thunderstorms as the week progresses. I'm welcoming this less hot period by flinging open every possible opening within the house.

Right now it might not be, but we're all come to like it again.

Yes, let's please move on from the lack of perceived accuracy from the professionals forecasters, who after all were only going on model output. We should be very grateful that we have a lot of informed analysis from the likes of fergieweather, AWD et al. in this regional and elsewhere within netweather. Even with the greatest minds in science, the weather will always fool us, it's nature's way. Also, it doesn't yet have the capability of bringing direct hits by thunderstorms, snow events or whatever to each and every one of our houses. As for me, I witnessed a couple of close strikes, heard a lot of distant rumbles and saw countless distant flashes. I'm happy with that as for once, the English Channel became our friend.

Don't worry AJ, I probably jinxed it before you. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77272-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-16th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2746313 Folks, its best to ignore the models now and enjoy the fun guys n gals.

Further to my post from earlier, its elevated stuff too, unless something new is kicking off. The cell is at least 25 to 30 miles due West of me and I've seen up to 8 to 10 flashes, madness. The clouds are a bubbling.

Yet more lightning here just then, seen distantly out to the west again. A beautiful sight, right now its time I watched it unfold.

Indeed AJ, that's precisely the case right now. Absolutely no model output is of any use right now as I believe things may kick off continually here and there right up until the main rainband comes through tomorrow during daytime hours. The front (the main event) should have a few embedded cells within it. EYES TO THE SKIES, those who are in for the long haul.

And there's plenty of homegrown cells brewing too. See my post and Mr Noos from earlier. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77272-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-16th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2746104 Loving this pent up atmospheric energy, even if I don't get an overhead storm in the long run. I do so need some sleep though.

Speaking of out to the West, I think it could be going to go bang again in central parts of our region. These cells can certainly pack a punch. Don't worry if there is not much showing on the radar in your location, folks. The energy is there for continual development as shown by the cloudscapes out to the West of me right now.

Rich, it's not just you. See my post from earlier. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77272-south-westcentral-southern-regional-discussion-discussion-16th-july-2013-onwards/?p=2744604 Nevertheless, I was quite happy with today's action. A few close CGs and a period of a dozen or so CGs during that last cell brought the rumbles heard to near on 30 or so.

Newbury is in the firing line of those cells due SW of me, oh my this is going to be good un. If it is all we get from tonight and tomorrow's events then I still should be happy with what's heading my way.

My previous post is all I can give you. Let's hope there's much more to give in the atmosphere, for nearly all of us. In fact, I can hear further rumbles as I type this.

It's not overly precise in fact so I should be fine. I live just up the... nah! Forget it. Distant lightning very early this morning, rumbles of Thunder this evening, now bring on the main event.

Wow, Temperature has dropped back four degrees or so since the passage of that storm, too.

Not that I want to make anyone jealous, but a couple of those strikes from earlier were quite close. Good ole NX v6 radar.

Don't quote me on that but something similar. Thunder overhead complete with screaming kids here in Newbury now and a few large spots of rain and possibly melted hail.

A fairly UK wide event tomorrow with potential for anything from deadly lightning, hail, gusty winds, the works. Nothing much in our region before then, but they're wrong I'm afraid, IT'S A KICKING OFF. Just shows how difficult it is predict these outbreaks. Newbury needs you, storms!

Indeed, I was focussing more on tomorrow and the thought it just being a band of rain and a non-event. Anyway, as ever, many surprises expected along the way and before we even get there. This lot was not foreseen by the media forecasts I saw, did the models nail this lot we currently have in parts of our region I wonder? ENJOY ALL.

Thanks AWD, I just have a silly fear of things not going quite as planned. Especially given the potential shown by Shaferknakkers on the Beeb, sounded mental.