Greeny

I missed it cause it isn't at such an acute angle as we saw a couple of weeks back. I guess as the winds are stronger at the surface they don't have to be colliding head on as such. More to add to what I've learn't. PWAT values are forecast as 27mm so yeah could drop a fair amount.

Looks like a squall line west of London heading east northeast. Some small cells over London too. Cell close to me also.

I feel better now its in

Yeah thats true I did notice but decided to look in more detail for tomorrow

I'm surprised convective weather hasn't issued a convective outlook for tomorrow unless I'm missing something, perhaps the area is too small, ok things are not overly impressive and lapse rates not that steep but some CAPE showing although modest over eastern Scotland (early afternoon) and East England a little later. Occluded fronts moving in according to metO SLP chart including a trough. GFS shows increased upper level vorticity spreading from southwest to EA and out over the north sea and beyond. DLS weak so pulse storms at best if any. Unlikely any CZs and looks to be a little windy the more east you are and losing intensity throughout the course of the day according to GFS any way. Low cloud bases forecast, LLS reasonably strong. Certainly nothing widespread and certainly not a great deal forecast for tomorrow but worth a mention I guess A feeling of uncertainty and noone else on board mentioning it does give me a sense of reluctancy but its the convective forecast topic so what the hell.

Nice, hot and humid here with some nice convection bubbling but capped as expected. Could have been good if conditions above were right.

YES! Nice!

http://www.estofex.org/ Estofex on board with the lowest of risks. Skew-t for Norwich showing weakening of the cap into the evening. 00Z has the best outlook although it is meagre but in my experience can be enough. MLCAPE could be tapped into by nocturnal cooling. PW values pretty high too.

The day I saw my first funnel from Peterborough a few years ago, on the way back I caught some what looked to be spiralling air through some residual cloud fairly low down. I've only ever seen that once and there wasnt any Cbs around at that time and it was pretty sunny too. The atmosphere seemed to be ripe for that so who knows, can't really confirm unless its caught on video really. Back to today, appreciate we're under a ridge today with no convective outlooks but just pointing out that mid west builds up some CAPE throughout the day with an upper trough arriving early evening. Mid level capping will probably inhibit any CAPE that is present. Midlands coverage and some more EA. MLCAPE slowing moving off to the east throughout the evening and night.

Convection looking good here with a few towers around. On a visual note the potential is definitely around here today.

Friday looks like the north, Ireland and Scotland will be most at risk but Saturday GFS forecasting more widespread convection at the moment. (I'm going to say it :)) "a tongue" of cold air aloft overspeads the UK on both days.

When looking at the latest run on GFS it had another downgrade and the small area of CAPE was further north

Could have been that it ended up further north in South Wales. Without reports whos to say. Worth a mention... http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/tornado_spotted_in_suffolk_1_4595992

You never know something may crop up as we head into July. Keep an eye on Friday, showing some signs of a convective day more the north Scotland and Ireland but its 3 days out and it could change. The low may end up being further south when it arrives you never know. Edit: the jetstream a direct hit currently being forecast producing strong DLS.

Yeah it went off over the continent and thats the flow we really needed. Was severe imo but for excessive rainfall, it did cause quite a bit of difficulty. Certainly a member in my fb group said a friend or relative had flooding issues. I drove passed a car that had broken down and the next day delivered a car to a customer who had his car break down cause of the floods. More heating and CAPE would have had a different output, I should think HP would have still been likely but storm stuctures would have been a lot more impressive and hail a good size I reckon too. Sorry I didn't respond earlier William I wasn't able to keep an eye on the thread. Was interested in the shear, deep and low layer shear would have like to have seen a bit more CAPE build up and a higher troposphere. In general was the event interesting and did it have some noteable events? Its harder to judge when I don't live there to see it.

Yeah thats a good website w09. Thanks for posting the link for PWAT its good info. I think a good example of high PWAT keeping lightning to less than expected was here in Norfolk last thursday the 23rd. Although it was hot in the cloud breaks and was humid, DPs of around 20C, cloud cover kept the build up of CAPE to less than what was expected if clouds were not so in abundance. Before it hit V4 radar realtime overlay stated 600j/kg of CAPE. The outcome were floods and some lightning with the odd loud cracks of thunder but lightning wasn't as frequent as it could have been if either CAPE was allowed to build up more or PWAT values were a bit less. Edit: this was within the period where there was strong DLS in the mix.

I think the latest run from GFS has downgraded only slightly with the strongest shear more focused for the southwest than the previous forecast but lightning wizard and its SRH seems to have upgraded a little with its 12z and 15z, falling considerably by 18z.

Its all for the melting pot

Yes I did see it thats what prompted me to take a look. Its interesting for me to see what happens with this forecast and it being a small area, its a learning curve. The deep layer shear is coupled with nearly 30knts of low layer shear. Would be well interested with this setup myself. Can understand the tornado risk. I looked at the surface winds and they were quite strong which prompted me to check the LLS. As always I would be cautious to get too excited but would be looking around with interest

It does look rather interesting for your neck of the woods William. Seems also to be potential for Ireland and later on in the day for Scotland. Equilibrium level for the southwest isn't as high (20 - 25000ft) but skew-t for Newton Poppleford has around 600j/kg of CAPE build up by 1800 with the current run. Lightning wizard has significant tornado parameters and up to 300 SRH although county of Devon skew-T has 191SRH at 12z down to 40 at 18z but that is still enough I think. It is a small area however and SRH may drop before storms finally get going so not sure how it would transpire if anything does fire there. Lightning wizard insists SRH for right movers will still be 200-300SRH at 18z. We shall have to see. Worth looking to any low cloud bases that you may be able to see for rotation and good luck!

Cant seem to find the post from Supercell to quote but yeah I just noticed that whilst having a little look ahead on GFS Not a vast area currently but will see what happens in the upcoming runs. Noticed a post saying that it would be it for convective weather for a while but that isn't necessarily the case. The more far forward you look the more likely things change and the next thing you know there is another potential convective day. Can say that through experience although at times there can be a long period of quietness, best to take it a couple of days at a time.

Its the convective discussion thread, I'm sure Nick won't mind one bit Its worth taking into consideration earlier times. 12Z and 15Z is a good time to look at imo, initiation is more likely to be around those times. Plus if on pulse storm like days where shear is weak if you're trying to see a funnel like Im trying then its more likely to produce one as its intensifying when the updrafts are strongest and are not being choked off by downdrafts.

A short while ago. Hook on the cell near Cambridge.

It can happen here and it has. Great picture of a decent shelf cloud! Thanks for sharing.

http://www.estofex.org/ Estofex has Ireland under a level 1. (they do state low end level 1 and no severe weather is expected)