chrisbell-nottheweatherman

I agree about the next few days - unlike some I'm not obsessing about a breakdown, just curious. I'm waiting to see what guys like yourself make of the pub run!

How do you feel about my location in that rsspect?

Thanks Nick. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on whether you feel a zonal setup would be likely to last well into the New Year or whether you think that any incursion from the SW would be short-lived? I know you explained how uncertain and chaotic the breakdown is looking, but, in terms of longer-term factors, do you agree with GP in the advanced model discussion?

Do you have any idea as to why the BBC forecast people seemed to jump at one chart? BTW, Deakin back on news channel now. Brief hint at heavy snow on Thursday and Friday - methinks a backtrack! <_<

Sorry if I sounded grouchy, but someone did ask me to post it - can't remember who though! BTW, for anyone having a job finding it, it was post #511.

What's happened to the EA contingent here? Almost all the posts in the last 3/4 of an hour have been from Kentish posters and my report on the LE forecast has been thanked by two people, both from the SE region! :unsure:

Thanks for the good wishes. :wub: :wub:

Don't worry mate - some in my region asked me to - the only ones who've mentioned it so far are you and neil who aren't covered by it!

LOL - are you propositioning me? :blink: :lol:

Abrief "thanks" would have been nice.

Isn't anyone interested in my report on the LE forecast?

OK folks, Look East forecast: Tonight - frosty, fog possible in west. Mins -1 to -3. Tomorrow - sleet and snow drifting down from north to affect mainly eastern parts of region, Could give a dusting on high ground, but washed-away later by rain. Tomorrow finishes with maxes of 3 degrees and patchy rain. Thursday to Sunday - Snow likely on all days, mainly in east. Accumulations unlikely to be more than a dusting other than Thurday night, but very cagey about amounts. Sunny intervals most days except Sunday, but Sunday night will be above freezing for the first time in the forecast with -1 minimum.

Look East has just started - I am looking forward to seeing the local forecast.

A cold NW wind for northern areas plus potential battleground scenario for the south?

I presume the "Julie" was J. Reinger? If so, that's a downgrade from this lunchtime on Look East when we were due a few flurries on Thursday. I know the UKMO output is mild ramping, but that's for the end of the weekend onwards - the local BBC/WeatherQuest really are ploughing a lone furrow.

I got the sports report LOL.

Yes, I doubt that the GFS will be anything like accurate after late Friday, but I think the prospects for Thursday and Friday are fairly good and there seems to be broad agreement about the general pattern of snowfall.

It's really around T+144 that the UKMO sends in warm air from the SW, and the forecast members seem to think that it may well be overplaying the breakdown as much as the GFS is overplaying the chances for Sunday/Monday.

TWS makes a good point, though - this run could be overplaying things. If the ECM and MetO agree, then we might be looking at being able to predict with more confidence.

Isobars and 650hPa temps look good for early Friday morning. Unfortunately it appears that the southely arm of the jet does start heading north, though the northerly arm is still just about OK given what Steve Murr said yesterday, I think.

Perhaps this would be a good opportunity for a forecast or senior member to explain the differences and why the parallel is supposed to be better?

My (very) limited understanding is that it should theoretically be more accurate; certainly those here who really know their stuff say that, this past week, it's been very consistent compared to the outgoing GFS.

Snow is expected to be heaviest overnight Thursday into Friday morning, with snow showers during Friday possibly retreating to coastal districts.

As I understand it, it should be - the 06z run was supposedly the last "old-style" GFS run, so I'd expect it to be the first in which the GFS parallel is THE main GFS run, with the only other GFS run being the ensembles.

Is that you on the sledge, Steve?