chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Thanks alza.

I'm also not seeing the list of people viewing the thread I'm viewing, if that makes any sense.

Yes, we are now at the point where minor variables within a few hours can greatly change each areas' experience of this spell. I'm also of the opinion that, with cold air ell-established by the start of the week leading-up to Christmas, the progressive outlook suggested by GFS could well see decent snowfall. Less scientifically, it seems likely to me that cold would re-establish itself later into the New Year as the continent and North Sea would be pretty cold.

Look back to the Learner's Area again, and select "Netweather Guides" On (I think) page 3 there are a series of "Understanding whichevertype of Chart" posts. Those are the ones you need to read.

I'm really pleased for those in the West who look like having a better chance of snow than they did a few days ago, but can I enquire as to whether this has diminished the chances for East Anglia?

Today started bright and sunny here before a wintry shower appeared. Then, sunny spells and light showers until early afternoon, when it clouded-up with rain on and off, possibly some wintryness but haven't been able to pay full attention! Now fully overcast and heading rapidly towards twilight.

I presume it changed time this week due to Sports Personality of the Year being on this evening.

This is also bugging me, plus the fact tht two different people can see the same model runs and one is getting out his waterproofs and another is looking for the sledge. In the past couple of days I've seen seemingly ebvery possible permutation bar a heatwave.

Looks to be off Dover, but I think it's a blip.

You make me feel old! I was an Undergraduate in 2001! <_<

I'm giving-up on these model threads. Two posts in a row and they're almost total opposites. I'll pop in to see if any sensibler people have posted, but you won't see my replying here anymore.

Haha - yeah, the second Ian Brown quote doesn't look much like "wise words" to me.

Your analysis is very negative compared to more experienced and respected members here. Keeping this OT, some showers now affecting my region, plus the GFS 12z is showing colder 850 hPa temps up to 30-40 hours which must be a positive sign.

IF that Wikipedia article is accurate, we didn't switch to the Gregorian calendar until the middle of the 18th century - presumably this accentuates the strength of the snowy Christmas "meme".

That's my point - a true downgrade is nationwide or at least widespread, and, thanks to all the wrist-cutting mixed with fanciful predictions of snowdrifts, I'd not realised that the latest GFS suggested better conditions for cold than earlier ones.

Yes, I'm trying to learn about what the models can show, and it's evident that I am only going to learn anything useful from the posts of a very few people (yourself included). Surely a reduced snow risk for one area isn't a downgrade as that would be an overall reduction in snow, or am I missing something? As a scientist myself, albeit a biologist, I feel that the variances of the last day or two have been nothing more than statistical variance between samples. Based on that theory, the last true downgrade was the ECM a few nights ago, and that seems to be agreed to have been faulty.

Sorry for the late reply (I'm only just catching up), but this is one of the best posts I've read in these model discussions for days!

Night all.

Thanks.

Apologies if you have done his in the past, but, IF we get through to Tuesday evening and it looks as though significant snow is likely, would it be a good idea for you, as an emergency planning professional, to write a guide for how we should prepare?

You won't hear this sort of stuff from me often, but "Awww, bless!"

As I suspected, I just wondered whether there was any support in the models for that forecast.

It worked for me - try John's blog thread.

Sorry mods, one-liner here, but thank-you John for your blog.

Maybe they know something we don't?