Snowmad79
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Posts posted by Snowmad79
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I know its grim outside most of the time but it's bloody lovely having a home at a solid 18c without having to touch the heating. Not that we could use it much this winter! Anyway here's hoping for a decent spring, would really appreciated a good spell of some warm & sunny weather!
Have a nice evening guys.
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We've had snow all day today but it didn't really start to accumilate much melting on the paths and roads until the last couple of hours when it really started to stick. About 3 inches so far and like a blizzard out there now with that wind.
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5 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Cold front passed over about 00.45am this morning
Wow pretty special seeing how the clouds whizzing by changing direction
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Wow what a merry but Grim festive period this is! The models looking more and more stormier as the rest of the year ebs away. PV defintely sling shotting those LP at us from Newfoundland instead of winter wonderland, as suspected
have a nice holiday period!
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3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Please, please can we stop talking about the zonal stuff ( so much to skip through
) anyway all eyes down to the Mighty Navgem .
Why though ? The models are absolutely brimming with the stuff
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2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:
I think Quicksilver knows what they're talking about, no offence intended but that's not really explaining how you get cold zonality.
Going back as far as I can remember on the model forum here, Cold Zonality was a phrase used a great deal by many. Newbs, enthusiasts and knowledgable people which generally refered to LP systems bringing mild sw'erlies and then pulling in Polar Maritime/Returning Polar martime air. Some called that cold zonality even if LP didnt actually clear fully to the east into neverland. Some also called them northerly topplers. I think thats what we are looking at for a while here.
Slight edit as I know it really should be called Meridonal Flow but Cold Zonality it just how most have always described it.
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Well, it certainly looks like previous model runs including Ens suites pointing to extention of the milder conditions and confining cold snowy weather to "blips" with Scotland/borderlands getting the best of any chance is actually coming to bear now. Was hoping to see some sudden last minute flops but I guess that won't be the case. Positive tilting jet barrellling LP at us & rejuvinated euro HP is the way forward for now and UKMO especially, showing the PV getting it's winter gears on.
At least we have 2 - 3 months for more shots at a winter jackpot. Mustn't forget that even recent heavy snow events like back in 2018 occurred at the end of Feb into March so not all doom and gloom. Plus we get to save on our bills for a while
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49 minutes ago, Ramp said:
Some amazing photos online from that winter, imagine being two weeks away from that!
Heres a chart from back then for those wondering
Probably best that people in mod thread don't hype up any GL highs too much because they need to be of the classic variety to get the goodies.
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3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Seriously mate. Those ens are a big improvement on the other day. They clearly show a colder trend up North and some hints of more colder runs further South. We can't say at this stage if the PV will get its act together and locate over Greenland...its possible but so is it remaining disorganised...coupled with that met update of colder spells being more probable than normal for January,you have to wonder if they are seeing a signal for it to remain more favourable.
I think far to many get far to stressed in here at times.
Thanks, Matt. Not being negative as there are some positives to take away from all modelling and ens but personally I am not seeing anything to get excited about at this moment in time. Scotland is always in or around colder air at this time of year and tend to get the best out it in terms of snowy weather when the rest of us do poorly. The ens you posted for birmingham are especially telling for me.
The thing about the PV is when most people talk about it they use the 850 charts to say it's disorganised/split etc but don't look at the other available charts like this. I am no expert obviously but it is becoming more circular in its favoured postion which strengthens westerlies around the globe which can prevent proper GL and Scandi HP setups. Winter has only really just got started so definitly not the end of the world
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9 minutes ago, HafrenLMP1 said:
Cold rain, breezy and grey.......One word to describe that - Yuk!!!
It is indeed, the worst of the worst and 2.8c. Aweful. I can't even get out the garden though because the ground is still frozen solid & raised and my double gates are still both stuck solid
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37 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Good news folks..I think the messiah of mogreps which is me
states a growing set of colder runs from the North with time..Birmingham for instance pushes closer to -10 with some runs.
I think we could be going colder again.. whisper it quietly.
Come on folks I'm working overtime to get these colder runs further South.
No point getting peoples hopes up with ens like these. They are now constistently showing any decent cold as "blips" and extending the period of time that uppers sit around 0c which is not good at all unless you want coldish and wet muck. One thing that always worries me is the errodation of heights over GL as the PV starts to Organise in its prefered winter location, which is looking increasingly likely imho.
PS. where is the xmas grinch emoji ?
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We are one of the lucky ones that got a final little top up of snow before the thaw comes. Currently 2c here and rising.
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1 hour ago, SnowThunder said:
This is what we're all going to get soon
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We still have the Snow from the first and only spell this area got lol. However some of us are in the warning area for some snow on Sunday. This is going to be a kick in the teeth with all the rain we are now forecast with the milder weather being more or less prolongued on the models and returning cold now reduced to flirting blips. Laughable.
If we cant get decent Snowy weather I'd just rather the cold sodoffski
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15 minutes ago, dodge said:
Dropped to -10 overnight, -2 now but the sun is tyring its best to punch above its weight for this time of year...will it win the battle for denying a second consecutive ice day here? The day despite the cold is perfect for being outdoors.
Right that settles it. I need to get my station some shade because the direct sun on it is causing a reading of 8.9c lol
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-5 here, strange when people around this area post low temps than me. Now mine is lower and its only 17:20
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No ice day here, even though it sure does feel like it. The the bit of sun we had warmed it up a litte as my station was reading 1.8c is now dropping again.
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- 4.2 on th'hills of Oldham according to my Weather station.
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Yeah didnt last but its at least something from nothing
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Yep and the snow has started falling here. Brilliant! Looking forward to those Irish sea streamers tomorrow too.
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34 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:
Sweet bejesus not sure who taught newer folks how to read ensemble charts ? That looks good from a coldies POV. Lengthy period of -5 uppers with the Operational being "somewhat" of a warm outlier in FI. If we took that graph alone it doesn't scream default atlantic or mild at all. Quite the opposite
I would say this mornings models look like a bit of an improvement on yesterdays despite not getting -8 850's over us for another 5 days or so.
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5 minutes ago, dodge said:
Strange how dark and gloomy it's gone without actually raining. Although the radar is showing a little drizzly development just to my east...I've had lighter skies with it bucketing down. Oh well...not complaining...the rain will come and usually outstay it's welcome once we get into well into Autumn.
Looked at all the forecasts -
Looked at the Rain Radars -
Looked at my Forecaster -
Looked out the window, broken cloud, warm and fairly sunny -
Went outside to do some gardening and started p****** down with rain
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29 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:
Been lovely hot day… 30-33c registered on car… all the reservoirs are so low at the moment… 31c reached here back in Glossop… went to Dovestones and then Littleborough via Baitings reservoir… g&t on patio and feet in a bucket of cold water
reservoirs compared now vs normal
Thanks for the lovely pics. Can tell that is not Dovestones unless the area changed drastically lol. Anyway from the looks of it, its a good job our water in Oldham comes from the Lake District now adays
Cheers again mate.
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3 hours ago, WillinGlossop said:
27c already… off for walk around Dovestones Reservoir… have good day all
Enjoy your walk mate, not been there in a while! be interested in knowing how the ressie is doing for water :)
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Probably best that people in mod thread don't hype up any GL highs too much because they need to be of the classic variety to get the goodies.
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I am no expert obviously but my rule of thumb is, if we are in core of a strong HP system or in no mans land in between wide Isobars between systems we are likely to get sunny spells to Glorious sunshine. So far this looks like a Sunny spell on Sunday morning as the HP core crosses the UK followed by glum easterly flow.