SnOwFeSt

Breakfast weather seems to be about 2 hours behind time. The front they show for 9am is what it looks like at the moment! Certainly seems to be moving quicker than expected this front.

Such a roller coaster ain't it? First we were told we'd get a pasting, en we were going to miss out, then looks like we're back on! Just goes to show when forecasting snow, the best thing to do is just wait for the event then look (obsessively) at the radar! Cos there's a large block of cold air to our east. The milder Atlantic air tries to get in but hits the cold air like hitting a brick wall and slows and is forced sout east. Wait until later, and you'll see the front 'pivot' round as it starts to slow up.

I think the predictions are slightly inaccurate. Snow was originally forecast to hit our region from about 3pm, but the front seems to be coming in at a much quicker rate. Unless it slows up massively in the next hour, we could be in on the action. Especially if it stalls over our region!

Nice streamers developing in the north sea as well. Shame they don't seem to be coming onshore yet, but could be one to watch for later!

Yes the front seems to be moving at a fair old rate. If it continues at the same rate, this front could be with us in about an hour and a half. Expecting it to start stalling soon though, so will probably take much longer.

Yes lookalike the front will make it over our region from about 4pm today, although will fragment and weaken as it pushes north we could get some nice surprises if it mixes with some of the convection coming off the sea! *looks like!

How's it looking on the east coast? Looks like a heavy band of snow moving in for you folks!

Is it me or does the snow band seem to be moving in sooner than was forecast. Was forecast to be with us about 6pm in west yorks, but looking at the radar it could be with us from about 3pm. Mostly falling as snow in the north west ATM, so surely this must bode well for us further away from costal modification?

Breakfast weather seemed more confident of both bands being of snow for our region. Dodgy for more southern and western areas but should be ok for Yorkshire! Suppose it will be a case of wait and see. The first band looks like coming through a bit earlier than was previously progged.

An upgrade on snow prospes over the next 72 hours imo. More snowy and less marginal for more western areas. I think people are getting a little too hung up on the pattern from Thursday. It is way in FI atm. When you get deep cold set in for a few days, strange things happen! Such a depth of cold won't go away without a fight. In short enjoy the next few days of snow test and look forward to seeing how long it will last.

Jeez, I thought some sort of big downgrade he occurred looking at the mood on this forum. Checked the outputs and still looking frigid come the end of the week, with meg whiteout type stuff deep in FI. I for one look forward to the chopping and changing over the coming days. It's probably 50/50 as to whether it will be cold and dry or whether there will be some widespread snow events from this. Either way I'd say that the colder weather is increasingly looking nailed for the end of the week.

People getting far too caught up on the details as far out as 144+ FI is probably about 3 days at the moment, lots of different outcomes will continue to play their cards. The main thing to look at is the building of heights to our north, the probability of WAA into Greenland later on and the stratospheric warming going on. All this makes for some interesting model watching over the coming week! Even if we don't end up with a large slab of the PV moving in from the east (the drem outcome) colder conditions are going to happen. The worst outcome i think would be cold surface conditions for a week or so, but even this leaves us with the possibility of ice days further north.

There looks to be a brief wintry spell from northern England northwards on the 27th. Probably wet snow for lower levels and accumulations for higher parts. Only 24 hours before milder air returns though. Looking at the charts I wish I was in Iceland over the coming days. Some very interesting cold weather coming up up there. -25 850 air touching the northern parts, strong winds and a battleground scenario as milder air tries to bump into the frigid air to the north. Could be mega accumulations with that sort of set up! All the interest and variability of a maritime climate, but a few degrees colder than us makes for much more interesting weather/ snow prospects!

As expected a positive shift from the models this morning! With the vortex in the state it is in, I expect more interesting model runs over the coming days. I expect big shifts and wild swings as the models will struggle with this sort of pattern. Worth bringing out the Prozac for those who get worked up about such things!

As I predicted yesterday, the models appear to have underestimated the power of this block. The colder air remains over the uk for longer and there appears to be a trend developing for an undercut. Loads of potential for further upgrades over the next few days. One of those high risk/high gain patterns for snow methinks!

Yes, a disappointing run this morning. Heights lower much more over Greenland, preventing any link up of the Atlantic and Scandinavia heights. Shortwaves also get in the way of the really cold are moving westwards, and the flow is much slacker, meaning that convection will probably remain near to coasts. Still, plenty of time for upgrades! And it's still gonna be blooming cold regardless of the final outcome!

The size of the block is huge. Great to see some linking of the heights in the mid Atlantic with the Siberian high moving westward. It makes the margin for error much larger, and one would expect some sort of easterly to materialise from this. Obviously the earlier runs have been relatively disappointing, and this has been a stonker, so perhaps it would be realistic to expect something in between?

Rain has stopped here now. Temps about 3 degrees. Are these likely to drop away over the morning now the rain has cleared? Surprised it is so high, as it was only forecast to get up to 3 degrees here today. Doesn't bode well if it's that high already!

GFS has consistently been showing a large block over Russia coming into play into FI. Connects up with the atlantic block to form a scandi high. If we could just get rid of that pesky vortex over Greenland which seems to be hampering our attempts at tapping into the really cold stuff, the scandi high set up could be our best shot at cold over the next couple of weeks. Just need to see some energy going south of the block and heights to lower down there. Shouldn't grumble though, there are lots of cold options out there and some fascinating model watching over the next week for sure.

It looks like things may be quite a bit colder than the projected temps of a few days ago. A maximum of just 6 degrees and a frost tonight, and 4 degrees and another frost tomorrow should result in a daily average much lower than those the 12z was predicting a few days ago. I would guess the daily average would be likely to be nearer 3 or 4 degrees today and 1 or 2 degrees tomorrow, so perhaps a lower finishing point? Should certainly see another below average month!

With such a huge split in the polar vortex, it's all interesting model watching over the next few days. People get far too hung up on each run it's crazy. The overall pattern looks very promising and once the cold sets in, you don't need very low 850 temps to see decent snowfall down the line. After several days of -5 850 temps, the surface temps will be pretty frigid. any attempted attack from the west should see Some decent snow events for some (remember dec 2010). The pattern looks great and I'll start paying attention to the details from Wednesday or Thursday onwards. This has the potential to be very special though.

I'm plumping for another 2010 style scenario, but not quite as cold. Cold winters seems a bit like buses at the moment. 0.4

Excellent looking run with bags of potential. The building blocks are looking more solid as the runs go by. Big split in the polar vortex which looks entrenched for at least a week. In these sorts of synoptic set ups, anything can happen and reload potentials are high. Remember Dec 2010? Just sayin...

8.9 please!

I don't think there will be too much decent (by which I mean dry, fluffy) settling snow below 200-300m as its too early in the year and SST's and dew points are too high. From past experience of October blasts, the east coast is usually gets hammered with very heavy convective showers of sleet and ice pellets, which doesn't settle. Inland areas get more snowy stuff, but it is very wet, resulting in slushy deposits if you are lucky, which is horrible stuff! I remember getting caught out many (about 15) years ago around Malton at the end of October. It was very heavy, slushy snow which fell during the evening. Very, wet and slushy and therefore slippery and not fun to walk/ drive in. Not proper snow imo! Gutted that this blast isn't happening in January, then we would have some fun and games! The 850's would probably be nearer -12 to -13, the SST's about 7 degrees cooler, widespread snow for the east, and this forum would be in meltdown.