SnOwFeSt

Trend looking slightly different so far on the 06z. Low pressure to our west meanders northwards, rather then eastwards. Might this prevent the blocking high to our north/ undercutting low to our south + keep us in a stagnant southerly/ southeasterly feed? Guess we'll have to wait until the model has rolled out fully.

Haha - 0.7 is a little optimistic! I'm punting for 6.3 - cold first half, mild second half

Looking so marginal for next week here in leeds. Really are on the cusp of either getting a dumping of snow vs. a dumping of sleet on Wednesday. Lets hope the models have the low pressure tracking slightly further south as we near the time. At the moment, I'd say anywhere Newcastle northwards will be the right side of marginal... But it will probably all change - some very complex synoptics for the models to deal with at the moment!

I think FI is out at about t+36 at the moment. GFS really struggling with how far the low pressure will push east. Imo it is being over progressive, and the low will either stall or move northwards, keeping us in the relatively cold air (progged for late wed/ early thurs) for longer. The trend has been for the atlantic to be pushed further west, and I can see this continuing over the next few runs Also a chance we could tap into the cold air in scandanavia over the weekend imo bringing cool, clear conditions

Surprising to see some unexpected milder air within the easterly - only 0c outside. Dissapointing as a max of 0c was forecast last night. Could get up to 2 or 3 degrees today

BBC weather seem to have downgraded the snow event this afternoon/ evening. Went from saying we were going to have 15-20 locally 30cm of snow. Now sying 5cm over hills and a few centemeters at lower levels. I suspect it will be some way between the two - perhaps 10cm of so - another nice top up

Hiya, yes it has reached us in Pudsey now with light on/off snow and I expect it will soon be similar in Otley. Based on 'rain today' (link: http://www.raintoday.co.uk/) I expect it will become more persistant over the next half hour and stick round for most of the day, but staying pretty light. Still, it's nice to add another cm or so on top of the 5cm last night and the 30ish cm here already :blink:

Splodge of light snow seems to be stalling just to the east of leeds - hasn't moved in the last 20 mins according to rain today. What are the chances of it reaching west leeds? Could be snowing lightly all day if it gets this far west - and it is teetering so close!

Another splodge of light snow looks likely to cross leeds in the next half hour or so. Seems to be dying out unfortunately, but will be nice for when I go out for a walk in a bit Off topic I know, but GET IN LEEDS!!!!

Great pics - many thanks! Are there any other reports of river ice anywhere across the UK? I would imagine Scotland may be seeing some of the rivers starting to freeze up with the prolonged very cold temps they've had up there?

I think there is a bit more shower activity than was predicted last night. An imminent shower due over pudsey on raintoday (I can see the cloud in the distance) which should give a nice dusting on top of the 1.5cm we have already,. There is also the hope of more snow later in the afternoon, with quite a rash of showers coming down from the northeast. Just hoping they don't die out as they come inland!

Very heavy snow showers in Scarborough atm - massive flakes + settling (about 1cm). The amount of snow that has fallen over the last hour would have probably given between 5 and 10cm were it not above freezing + melting as it settles!

2.6 please

Hi, given the very low maxes and mins, which have been occurring for about 5 days now, I am wondering whether there are any reports of ice forming in rivers. I remember in Berlin a few years ago, the river started to ice over with maxes of about 1 degree, and mins of -10. I also seem to remember in the 80's the Thames showed bits of ice floating in it. Has anyone has noticed ice forming in their local rivers, and if so could you post pictures? Thanks

Does anyone know of any decent hills round leeds area? Thinking of dusting off the snowboard and taking her for a ride

Another slight covering last night - maybe another 0.5 cm to add to the couple of cm we had the day before (which didn't melt at all!) More snow forecast for later this afternoon as that low pressure system comes down from the north, so could add another few cm's to the total by tonight

The 00z was showing a much slacker pattern with milder air pumped into the low pressure system coming down the norweigan sea, so the 06z is a little better, and the easterly looks more organised (although too far south). Here's hoping it keeps moving north over the next couple of days, and the ECM doesn't backtrack! As you say, this is a possibility we need to bear in mind!

I am perhaps hopecasting, but I think the GFS will move slowly toward the ECM output, as it seems to have done a little this morning. The margins between an absolute pasting of snow and a much slacker (albeit still very cold) flow are tiny (about 100-200 miles), so I'm not expecting any firm consensus until Tuesday at the earliest. However, if the GFS starts moving toward the ECM solution at 12z, it will be a step in the right direction. I need to take a couple of days off the models (I tried yesterday, but was back online after about 4 hours!) - this model watching is starting to drive me crazy!!

Widespread -8 850 air over the country for Thursday and Friday, looking much better than the 00z was. The flow looks a little slack though, which means the really cold stuff (-10 to -15) stays just out over the continent, clipping the south east later in the run. If the main flow of the easterly were shunted just a little further north, we could be in for something very special. Plenty of time for that to happen yet though. I believe the ECM and METO are going for the flow to be slightly further north, so hopefully the GFS is trending in this direction?

I couldn't agree more with this sentiment. I think the charts are looking awesome tbh. There will always be chops and changes as we near t+0, but the pattern has stayed the same and a decent cold spell is now looking nailed on over the reliable period and into Fi. The greenland high sticks around, and you can see a nice 'omega' shape as low pressure systems are forced up and over greenland and down the other side Snow will always be difficult to preduct a few days out. The building blocks are all in place, the cold air (below -5, sometimes below -10 850) is set to stick around for many days (which we have not experienced in a long time, particularly when the sun is at its weakest), which should lead to widespread ice days for at least a couple of days at the end of the week. I think the gfs is slightly over egging day time maxes - I would expect them to be a good couple of degrees colder than progged, inland at least. Any precipitation falling in this scenario will fall as snow, and it will stick around. I would imagine that because the flow has come from the continent, and is sticking around for quite a while (As opposed to 24-48 hours as is usual), we should expect to see much colder surface temps than might be expected for -5 uppers. I believe that this is a very different scenario than we have experienced of late. Usually we get a 24-28 hour window of cold before the atlantic comes back in. With a greenland high, the cold is sticking around for much longer after the initial shots of air, which will cool surface temps down further and increase the chances of reloads further down the line (bearing in mind that europe remains very cold, so tapping into that very cold air is never far away).

Over ramping going on here imo. Yes the charts look awesome, but the -10 850 air forecast to arrive on monday is now only forecast to be about -3. I agree with OP, the real cold stuff always appears at t+150ish only to reduce as it nears the reliable timeframe. I seem to remember exactly the same thing happening last year. However, if the current pattern does occur, we will be in for something special (widespread snow, maxes of -3 to -6 away from the coasts/southwest, severe overnight frosts etc). I'm hoping + keeping everything crossed that it does happen this time round (we are long overdue such a spell of 'proper' non marginal snow!), but I think some caution is required.

I still have memories of last December (just after xmas) fresh in my memory. Seem to remember that GFS showed a stonking high pressure over greenland, with low pressure after low pressure dragging -15 850 air directly from the north at about the same distance as the current cold spell shows (5-6 days away). A different scenario, sure, but everyone was ramping + I was convinced it would happen, instead we ended up with dry cold inversion weather (which was nice, but not as exciting as was predicted/expected). Just a note from memory lane to suggest that this is far from nailed - short waves and the exact positioning of high pressure can alter things significantly beyond +72 or perhaps even shorter!

The models are still showing excellent prospects imo. High pressure dominating, lows sliding down scandanavia, bringing down very cold air into europe. Although this run shows us never really tapping into that cold air until late into Fi, the trend is still there. It wouldn't take much change for us to tap into the nice -10 850 air, and the pattern suggests we may get several shots at cold air as low pressure systems repeatedly move down scandanavia. Looking very promising imo

3.8 for me - cold start and high pressure/ inversion later on.

9.9 please