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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
RhysWales replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The northern France trend continues... -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
RhysWales replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Unless it doesn't play out the way GFS modelled it you mean? -
Feeling pretty rough so have slept through the morning. Having looked at the radar, we've had snow for the past couple of hours, but nothing othet than a covering of snizzle on the greenhouse roof. I assume this far east the colder air is killing off the precipitation as it falls Nice to see those further west finally get something though!
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Depressing summary from Ian Ferguson, apart from late feb chances: W COUNTRY OUTLOOK: V cold conditions continue on into Sat, with perhaps a *passing* phase of a little snow falling in places Sat PM. Temps rising Sun; & by Mon above avg (10-12C). Albeit not showing in operational models, it's possible for another colder E'ly spell later into Feb
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I've got one flake at 9pm I've noticed the automated met forecast really doesn't like predicting snow far out - likely will keep it dry and then on Saturday morning give us 10 hours of heavy snow.... that happened last weekend haha. BBC on the other hand has had light snow throughout Saturday for all of this week - stuck to its guns!
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Think it will break through by the end of the weekend tbh, but yeah by next weekend there is always a chance it could get colder again - perhaps not to the level of this week though. But, that's too far off to really know. It will get milder for a time at least though. Let's just hope it's late enough Sunday to give as much of Wales as possible the time to enjoy whatever we get Saturday
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I was only 9 but remember that as my only ever snow week- as it turned out to be! Started with rain on the Monday night, but we were sent home basically told not to expect to be back in the rest of the week. When my love of snow started haha. But yes, consistency as you say - but shows what certainly could be there for the taking. I think we would all be happy with just one (earlier the better so we get a couple of days to enjoy it.) Saturday I'm most confident in at the moment I'd say! Edit: Just catching up on other posts and saw your earlier one @goosey007 Matches my hazy memory almost to a tee
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Yeah, it's disappointing to think that next week we could be back in the mild (how long, who knows?) but there's still everything to play for - the easterlies hardly ever deliver in themselves for us - it's what tails them. If this GFS came off - that'd be worth it (SW it alternates between snow and rain), but further east accumulations up to 30cm or so by midnight Sunday - Monday. Everything to play for still - worry about next week next week and all that.
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I use meteociel.fr mate. Scroll to the bottom and select the european charts on the left hand side - only one it doesn't have is precipitation for ECM but it's easy enough to find your way around! Reckon you'll be grand even in the west by the way. The breakdown will happen but certainly think it may take a couple of attempts. Longer range models (EC46 etc and other outlooks) suggest that. Standard models will take less into consideration so will inevitably often look more climatological. Fingers crossed anyway, haha.
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
RhysWales replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sundays are the day of choice for this winter... And a nice follow up at 168!