RhysWales
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Posts posted by RhysWales
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Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:
Not sure I want to stay up for this tonight incase something goes wrong.
We're destined for egg on our faces aren't we?
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24 minutes ago, snowy36 said:
Plenty of good ensemble members there from the met
I'd love 14. All belongs to Wales
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2 hours ago, thetipster said:
Forecast model: ECMWF 9km
Provider: ECMWE 06z
Next update expected at: 19:39, in 5h 55m 37s
Update interval: 6-7 hrs
Reference time: 2023-03-07T06:00:00ZWowwwzers, would bank that. ECM short range is lower res than others though no? Hoping everyone in Wales, north and south, low and high, get something at some point this week!
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1 hour ago, andymusic said:
GFS has been so persistent about the potential post Christmas. Very wrong or very right?
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Merry Christmas all! Shame there's not been much reason to get this thread going this winter, but hope you're all well.
This must be one of the dreeriest years on record for weather and one of the dullest Decembers. Forget about wintry weather, right now I'd pay money to see the sun again!
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4 minutes ago, Johnp said:
WRF nice for the South
The northern France trend continues...
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Just now, JoeShmoe said:
Regardless of how this plays out the GFS has modelled this better than any other model and picked up the signals far quicker than the the ECM and UKMO. It also got the recent storms as well (despite some continuing to think it has a habit of blowing up lows). Kudos to it.
Unless it doesn't play out the way GFS modelled it you mean?
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Feeling pretty rough so have slept through the morning. Having looked at the radar, we've had snow for the past couple of hours, but nothing othet than a covering of snizzle on the greenhouse roof.
I assume this far east the colder air is killing off the precipitation as it falls Nice to see those further west finally get something though!
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Depressing summary from Ian Ferguson, apart from late feb chances:
W COUNTRY OUTLOOK: V cold conditions continue on into Sat, with perhaps a *passing* phase of a little snow falling in places Sat PM. Temps rising Sun; & by Mon above avg (10-12C). Albeit not showing in operational models, it's possible for another colder E'ly spell later into Feb
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Well, Everton have just taught me it's definitely not over til it's over.... Have the models given up on it for good then?
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11 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:
ECM for Saturday:
Also fizzles out by the next frame. That would be painful with heavy rain barreling through on the next front. My money's on Arpege / GFS / ICON etc, lol! Any idea how the UKMO treats it Matt?
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7 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
GFS gives us decent snow totals.
Yup. This from the higher res Arpege too keeps some good intensity in whatever we get. Tbh, even if we end up in Spring next week, 3 snow events in one winter puts this as a great one for me. Not a classic, but been a nice distraction!
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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Snow showing on met office forecast again
I've got one flake at 9pm I've noticed the automated met forecast really doesn't like predicting snow far out - likely will keep it dry and then on Saturday morning give us 10 hours of heavy snow.... that happened last weekend haha. BBC on the other hand has had light snow throughout Saturday for all of this week - stuck to its guns!
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27 minutes ago, Weather roller-coaster said:
Do you think the models are underestimateing the cold block be great if it stalls over wales and stalls the met are going for further cold next weekend think I read on here it might take a couple of attempts to come through
Think it will break through by the end of the weekend tbh, but yeah by next weekend there is always a chance it could get colder again - perhaps not to the level of this week though. But, that's too far off to really know. It will get milder for a time at least though. Let's just hope it's late enough Sunday to give as much of Wales as possible the time to enjoy whatever we get Saturday
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1 hour ago, Snowguy said:
Anyone in Newport under that precip?
We had flurries on and off through the morning with larger flakes than Monday but nothing noteworthy.
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13 minutes ago, goosey007 said:
Feb 96 replayed almost...hold that block must ! ....important not to get to far ahead of ourselves though as it chops and changes run to run ....consistency we need now.
I was only 9 but remember that as my only ever snow week- as it turned out to be! Started with rain on the Monday night, but we were sent home basically told not to expect to be back in the rest of the week. When my love of snow started haha.
But yes, consistency as you say - but shows what certainly could be there for the taking. I think we would all be happy with just one (earlier the better so we get a couple of days to enjoy it.) Saturday I'm most confident in at the moment I'd say!
Edit: Just catching up on other posts and saw your earlier one @goosey007 Matches my hazy memory almost to a tee
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Yeah, it's disappointing to think that next week we could be back in the mild (how long, who knows?) but there's still everything to play for - the easterlies hardly ever deliver in themselves for us - it's what tails them.
If this GFS came off - that'd be worth it (SW it alternates between snow and rain), but further east accumulations up to 30cm or so by midnight Sunday - Monday. Everything to play for still - worry about next week next week and all that.
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Not sure I've ever seen multiple snow events in the space of a few days topping up previous falls. Even in 2010 there was some melt between main falls - but the potential definitely seems to be there! I'd take the one though if it's not a snow-rain event!
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23 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
A bit of train forming could get a dusting.
Looks like it. Needs a bit more intensity though, and it's strange with the sun bright to the south.
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Work in the centre of Newport right on the side of the Usk. Flakes blowing around all morning but turning into a more steady flurry now!
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25 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:
I don’t have any to hand I just view all the ones on that deep cold thread, if you can point me to a website that I can get access to then I will be happy to have a look. Please remember, I’m looking for you guys to go against my theory and give me some hope for some snow
Edit: yes I’m situated in West Wales and I’m sure you can realise my point haha
I use meteociel.fr mate. Scroll to the bottom and select the european charts on the left hand side - only one it doesn't have is precipitation for ECM but it's easy enough to find your way around! Reckon you'll be grand even in the west by the way. The breakdown will happen but certainly think it may take a couple of attempts. Longer range models (EC46 etc and other outlooks) suggest that. Standard models will take less into consideration so will inevitably often look more climatological. Fingers crossed anyway, haha.
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14 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:
Unfortunately, I think this spell is going to be a big let down for us snow lovers in Wales, I don’t know why people are still confident that this will last on for some time on the other threads. A term ‘once the cold is in its hard to get rid of’ keeps popping up but this is not the case.
Nearly all models are clearly showing that the Atlantic will take a strong grip on our weather before it has time to snow from around the 11th Feb. I’m going to say we will see some snow to high ground (Brecon, north Wales, etc.) during that short battle between cold and mild but I think it will be mostly rain to most levels as that mild pushes in and takes over in quick time. If someone thinks different and has different proof then let me know because I’m all ears on this.
Met Office think otherwise in their extended, and they've actually called this winter extremely well.
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11 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:
What we want is that low in the Atlantic just to the South of Greenland to slide into the South of the UK. On this run it slides a bit too far South into the Bay of Biscay / France, but it wouldn't take much to get an some decent snowfall out of it!
Still, by the end of the run, pretty much all of Wales is under snowcover:
Definitely. I'd be confident though that at some point we would hit the jackpot, given the energy coming off the south of Greenland that there would be a few bites at the cherry! Just got to get it in firstly though. I'm getting a little excited tonight I'll be honest. Time to put it down for a bit
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2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:
Reasonably close agreement by the three big models tonight. On a snowstorm
Are we making progress at last? I do hope so.
Sundays are the day of choice for this winter... And a nice follow up at 168!
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted
Pink on the radar currently will be radar shadow, i.e. it's up in the clouds and 'falling' but too light and evaporating before hitting the surface. Look for the slightly darker shades - just hitting Gower and the Vale. Assume that is being seen at the surface?