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stewfox

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Posts posted by stewfox

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, TillyS said:

    I mean, strictly speaking the CET is above average. Has been well above average for the first third of the month: 

     

    It has felt really cold these past two days in the south, and in some cases and places has been cold, but empirically speaking not very. And temps are nudging upwards this week. So, no, not ideal ahead of the apparent snow event next week.

    We need deep embedded cold. This isn’t that.

     

    8.2c ? It's 4.8c currently.  Not sure where that link came from. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Wow fantastic runs again this morning! Someone is going to hit the snow jackpot but who?! All to be decided and should be fun watching the snow line rise and fall each run 🤦🏻😂

    In some of these battle ground scenarios height is always useful.

    I'm off now to take up my position for next week. Happy model watching. 

    Screenshot_20240110_045033_Google.jpg

    • Like 13

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Drifter said:

    Remember GFS never makes drastic backtracks. It tries to sneak the changes in gradually without anyone noticing. 

    GFS 0z causes a Prozac rush at 4am when it's woeful. 

    Gets better on 6z ,anxiety on the 12z and either a dream pub run on 18z or winters over.

    Folk notice the changes on GFS that's for sure. 

    120 minutes 12 secs to GFS 18z

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

    I am due to travel from Nottingham to Hemel to attend a funeral of a relative on the morning of the 19th 🥴 If these charts come close to fruition, I doubt very much I would get there! 

    Stunning charts this morning - Thanks to all who contribute so much of their time and knowledge to this forum 

    Most of us look at GFS ,ECM etc for cold snow etc but most don't want it to be disruptive.

    Orgean in March 1995 kept the roads clear hope we can.

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    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by stewfox

    32 minutes ago, daniel barber said:

    The met and the bbc do this pretty much every cold spell. They always inflate the temperatures by a few degrees typically until the day it occurs 

    BBC are suggesting some accumulations now for South East. Will be down to window watching for you lucky folk down south. But you don't get settling snow at 5c,odd

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by stewfox

    58 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Maybe we should put some numbers to the language so that when some shout “a deep freeze is now off the table” we know what we are talking about.

    As I see it taking into account usual U.K. winter synoptics:

    850s of 0 = Cool

    850s of -4 = Cold (has to be, given at -4 snow is in the mix)

    850s of -8 = Very Cold (rare, and snow over rain nearly ever time)

    850s of -12 = Severe Cold (very rare in truth, if you want lots of these go to Canada)

     

     

     

    -10c 850s over a lot of south east tomorrow but 3c to 5c forecast  

    In the current situation do we need very low 850s to add to instability given high pressure, the wet warm ground ?

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by stewfox

    30 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

     

    For me the Met Office have done a very good job. Called it cold very early, said it would be mainly dry which it is, and we're stand offish long term. Folks other than us on here, there is almost no talk of a cold snowy spell in the public domain and for now that remains the correct outlook

    To be fair there has been a lot of on line media talk from the usual Express , Mirror etc.

    I guess what the Met have seen no consistent model consensus. 

    Given the big swing away from deep cold from the ECM last 48hrs they can't afford to give extreme reactions to every updates. 

    John Holmes summaries have been good and balanced

     

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    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by stewfox

    10 hours ago, Gregulator said:

    Bbc and met aren't showing the temps that the models are showing for next week..rather annoying

    Agreed best I can find next 10 days is  sleet on 18th. Nothing remotely matching the excitement of the model thread. There has never been any cross model agreement for deep cold.

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    Daily Express on board final nail in the coffin 😢😢😢

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    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

    Why respond if you have nothing of value to add to the conversation apart from pointless rage baiting? No 💩 I'm mad about this, I'm going to live to see a mass extinction and I see people everywhere happy about it because we'll see some warmer summers! We are an absolutely pathetic species.

    500 years ago in the UK they were not building upto 150,000 houses a year on flood plains. So they suffered less  from flooding.

    Mass extinctions ? 

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    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

    Unfortunately this selfish mindset is far too rife in this country. No one thinks about anyone else 🙄 What exactly do we do when it becomes too hot and winters too wet for us down here, let alone people further south in Europe. What do the Spanish and Greeks do when they become more like northern Africa? What do north Africans do when the Sahara becomes uninhabitible to human life? What do the well over billion people on the Indian subcontinent do when that becomes a wet bulb in the hot season and totally uninhabitable?

    But hey, as long as you're happy in your little corner of the world, who cares about what the rest of humanity has to contend with? 🙄

    Also bolded, those summers were made wetter by climate change! You get more summer 2018s but you also get more July 2023s and December 2023s. If you want the UK to have a significant flood burden then go right ahead 🙄

    Those scientists are few and far between and are wrong. The increase in carbon dioxide began in the 1750s with the start of the industrial revolution and the global temperature began increasing around 100 years later, and the warming has violently accelerated since the 70s. This view is total nonsense.

    "A few" scientists do not hold the same weight as ~99.7%, 98.7%, 99.3% or whatever figure you want to use of scientists who agree (not believe) climate change is real and caused principally or entirely by humans. Nor do the beliefs and opinions of any scientists or anyone have any bearing on the scientific consensus.

    But hey, anything to avoid the reality that you want us to cause a mass extinction just so you can have warmer summers and milder winters in your very small corner of the world instead of, I don't know, moving south from a climate you apparently so viscerally hate. 🙄

    We need to stop pretending that it's okay to have this absolutely ignorant and disgusting attitude about climate change. It is not okay to suggest the homes of billions of people becoming uninhabitable and the subsequent fallout of that is a worthy sacrifice so your corner of the world that will hopefully not face complete disaster from climate change in comparison can have some warmer summers and anyone who finds themselves agreeing with that view needs to have a good hard look in the mirror. How would you feel if climate change was going to spell near-certain disaster for your home, whether that be biblical flooding, disastrous heatwaves or unimaginable droughts, or some combination of those three, and some idiot in Iceland or Lapland said the destruction of your home and everything you've ever known doesn't matter, because they will enjoy warmer summers and milder winters, or "there's benefits to climate change (for us, not you but I don't care!)"? You'd think that person is disgusting right? Well, that's a discussion for you to have with yourself.

    I have no idea what that even is, and no, geothermal activity cannot account for this, not even close. Where do you suggest all the carbon dioxide is coming from? Geothermal activity mostly emits methane and sulphur-based compounds, not carbon dioxide. Not to mention, no, geothermal and volcanic activity is not significantly increasing, it is almost unchanged since the 19th century, and this is via confirmed eruptions, so this doesn't even account for potentially missing data from earlier times. Furthermore, in previous volcanism-mediated warming events, it has taken volcanic activity hundreds of thousands of years to emit as much of a net carbon positive into the atmosphere as it has taken us 200 years to emit. In the P-E thermal maximum for instance, it took over 200,000 years. In the P-T extinction (otherwise known as the Great Dying), the process took several million years and multiple pulses of warming. The warming we have observed in the last century has taken thousands of times less years to occur.

    These excuses I see parroted on here are absolute hogwash. People really need to wake up and accept human-caused climate change is as much of a reality as the Earth being a globe. Trying to suggest otherwise is the literal intellectual equivalent of denying the shape of the Earth. You are a flat earther if you parrot claims like this. The case is closed, there is no debate and hasn't been for five decades now. Carbon dioxide released by humans is the only notable cause of warming in the present era. All other natural factors point to an overall cooling if anything from 1750 onwards, yet that isn't happening and never has as long as we've been emitting carbon into the atmosphere.

    No natural back ground factors ? 

    Screenshot_20240105_174525_Google.jpg

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