stewfox
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Posts posted by stewfox
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Until I see some changes in the BBC and other forecasts, I'll treat the output model forecasts with reserve judgement.
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1 hour ago, mbrothers said:
Haha it’s always the same folk that are ‘shocked’ , ‘gutted’ , ‘Bewildered’ by the models yet they are the first to start the next chase .
Why not it's an output model thread ?
Yes most prefer cold/ snow in winter.
The fact we have this excitement in the 1st month of winter is good.
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7 hours ago, stainesbloke said:
You could go up to the northern mountains? Maybe a day trip to Liberec. The border areas should still have some snow but it’s gone very mild everywhere
At Prague Airport a small winter fix
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7 hours ago, MP-R said:
Happens. I went to Poland at Christmas two years in a row. Krakow was as you’ve described there and it was 14°C in Warsaw!
I was in krakow 2008 a bit of snow. In zakopane a few thousand feet up picture post card of snow
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1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:
It’s gone very mild here, all the snow has gone sadly
Any re excursions in Prague where you might see snow ?
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Off to Prague tomorrow for Christmas markets and my fix of snow and its 6c to 9c
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Folks 4 Jan 1963 added up to 23 (ie 4 + 1 + 9 + 6 + 3 = 23
Jan 15 2024 also adds up to 23.
Coincidence maybe but I'd bet my hat to see the same weather outcome on the 15 Jan 2024
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11 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
It won’t last long. Even the Met Office mention the possibility of colder weather later in December.
In mid August nobody picked up the hot spell in early mid September. Within a 10 day window the signal to trend to much warmer was there from GFS ,ECM etc.
I don't see any consistent trend to colder post day 10. "Possibility" is the best fence sitting the Met can do.
But model watching is so enjoyable as often day 10 is FI and its early December folks not end of February.
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People often say why haven't the Met talked about the potential colder out looks in FI ?
Imagine the back lash if thousands cancelled Christmas plans.
One week is enough for them in the public domain.
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Dear Santa,
My Christmas request is fairly simple. I don't need another car cleaning kit.
I need snow on the ground over Christmas period but no travel disruptions
I know it's FI but no delays on M40 and M25 when i travel to my sisters on Christmas eve.
I have the attached what I have in mind like March 1995 in Oregan
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
GEM going a different route
That's 6 days before the GFS charts that were posted. Not comparing like for like
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5c and cold rain ,wonderful not
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The "Glad you got some" said through gritted teeth today.
Just 3 days of a frozen water butt ,this cold snap
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Amazing 12 miles north of me (Coventry) which had settling snow here in Napton at 500 feet nothing.
No snowman for me just 3 days of a frozen water butt and yes I am 58.
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1 minute ago, LeeKay/ said:
With the reports coming in around the mids, its amazing what a few miles can do.
It's definitely rain now and I'm at 500 feet. The mixing of the air is interesting
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7 minutes ago, Snowshine said:
Can confirm. It's raining here (as expected), and temperatures have gone up to 0.6C in an hour, marking the start of a dreary week of weather.
Sleet here i guess soon be rain but at 500ft ever hopeful
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12 miles south of Coventry at 500ft. Nothing here yet
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5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:
lovely mate! must say the cobwebs in my garden were amazing late morning!
Definitely
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21 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
I don’t know why people pay any attention to the BBC forecasts when they can just look at the second to last ECM operational run.
Because in the 7 day range there pretty good. All we are seeing from the models at the moment is the timing of the breakdown of the cold. Which differs slightly.
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5 hours ago, chris pawsey said:
Got a family Christmas party on Sunday, i'm preparing a finger buffet for 60 guests! - What are the chances of people not being able to travel from Coventry to Kenilworth?
No issues ,so if they don't come might need to reconsider your Christmas presents?
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1 hour ago, Azazel said:
as much as i hate this time of year, I really haven't minded the cold, dry days.
Its the return of the wind and rain i'm dreading.
Too right clear blue skies here.
Putting a old Christmas mug on a frozen water Butt makes a change . How long will it last ?
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1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
Looks like my expectation for an unsettled start to December is going to come to fruition after all, just with a bonus cold spell before hand.
Quite a few turn their noses up at background drivers/teleconnections in this thread, I suspect due to a lack of understanding them but I think that’s a shame, they are an incredibly useful tool and add a lot of context to NWP outputs
Always read your posts with interest. One of the first to suggest the low may not hit the UK at all last Sunday.
Also suggesting on 21 November Atlantic driven weather may return early mid December. When some were still looking at a Dec 2010 comparison.
Are we in a situation where on a macro scale we can predict trends for the next 3 weeks ?
However on the micro scale things may pop up. ?
This cold snap did make many consider the validity of the background signals,probably due to lack of understanding.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Flight data?. Not heard that this Christmas must be due now ?