stewfox
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Posts posted by stewfox
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4 hours ago, minus10 said:
10 degrees or more between the op and the 850 mean/long term mean..wonder what the record is for the difference between an op and its means...
This thin green line has been mentioned a few times . Some suggestioning it has no support.
Well it has mine. NH profile not your standard default at the moment.
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49 minutes ago, TheOgre said:
This country can be bloody boring sometimes! I reckon it’ll be 2-4 sunny and frosty days, then cold rain then back to mild rain. Then that’ll be your lot until the next cold spell. Hope I’m wrong.
Some heavy rain and my fav 3c with drizzle
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No snow for me on Thursday.
So making do with 2nd best
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On 22/11/2023 at 19:46, stewfox said:So in summary today for anyone that's new here. 10 years ago I use to do a high level summary to help folks putting it in laymen terms.
Morning
GFS is pants it's the worse performing model. ECM on the button. GFS never handles these situations will follow ECM shortly.
Evening
GFS on the button has been for a week first to spot the trend. ECM now following with a tail between its legs. ECM useless in these situations.
Just to update folks from 3 days ago.
GFS is crud now the ICON is great, ECM TBC
Updates to follow later in the week
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Lots of 5c or 6c for much of England next, Scotland colder according to BBC.
Model output discussions seem to be over ramping ?
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1 hour ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:
This is why you should never get excited for things to happen in the UK you literally need everything perfect for a cold/snowy scenario to happen one little wobble and it’s game over in this country unfortunately now cold winters are very few and far between
One GFS run and it's winter over.
Just checked it's 23rd November
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So in summary today for anyone that's new here. 10 years ago I use to do a high level summary to help folks putting it in laymen terms.
Morning
GFS is pants it's the worse performing model. ECM on the button. GFS never handles these situations will follow ECM shortly.
Evening
GFS on the button has been for a week first to spot the trend. ECM now following with a tail between its legs. ECM useless in these situations.
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11 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
All of the models are wrong.
That's a important thing to learn.
Patterns ,trends yes but 100 percent accuracy wouldn't that be boring
Now will it snow on Christmas day in my back garden. Looking out the window still the best solution on the day.
Model watching so much fun when we have the current potential.
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I know folks are writing off winter 2023/24 from early October.
Remember that very hot spell in early September. I went back and looked at the model output discussion from mid August. Some comments on potential only started occuring from circa 17th August. No one mentioned it in June or July.
Point being for our tiny Island two weeks is far as we can go for trends and Tesco have not reduced their snow shovel prices yet
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1 minute ago, Mizzle said:
Looking impressive on radar.
I'm under that 2nd heavy blob in Warwickshire, heavy rain
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50 minutes ago, Freeze said:
Wind is insane here. Can here loud crashes outside
Some drivers will always drive too fast
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1 minute ago, Thunders said:
Don’t worry, I know what I’m doing. I’ll just tell them that it could be another 87 they will probably be like, “ it’s ok you can have a few hours off then we will assess the situation”
I was a student in Portsmouth in 1987 what a night that was
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3 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:
Looking at xcweather latest gusts, we are well below forecast for inland regions in the south. Forecast 54 MPH, actual 32 MPH.
So either the stronger winds will arrive later or the stronger winds are further South. Looking at the latest models.. I would go for the latter option. The only interesting thing for those of us inland will probably be the very low pressure readings.
Strong winds can only do damage to my fences. I'll take snow anytime
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Picked the wrong day to go kite flying tomorrow
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2 hours ago, Harry's House said:
Even if the worst of the weather is over by the time you travel, you may well be hindered by fallen debris such as trees been blown down.
I believe any storm damage will be confined to extreme south of country. Its inconvenient if I cant go but would never risk if there is a danger.
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Just now, snowspotter said:
I don’t think it’s going to deviate much at all from the latest met office forecast to be honest . Check out the video on their website for the latest track of it .
I've know about this storm for nearly a week as proposing to travel 100 miles including M25 etcThursday evening. Hopefully the worse will have passed by then.
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3 hours ago, S Bragg said:
So that's another winter of mild, mild mild eh? Not saying I'm surprised but I am disappointed.
Very boring if we actually knew what the winter 2023/24 was going to be.
I predict 2023/24 winter will colder than 62/63 and snowier than 47.
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3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
Looking forward to this winter here...everything looking back at previous strong El Nino points to mild relatively snow free and dry winter with an early spring..in my part of the world El Nino seems to trump everything else
Do you ever get bored of snow out there ? I lived in kansas for a year in mid 90s. I guess was a snowy winter for them and my fascination with snow got less and less as the season went on.
I remember in mid March trying to park the car and it was probably hi 40s or 8c but still massive piles of snow to melt.
Here it's often lamp post watching at 4am
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15 hours ago, razorgrain said:
Eugh, snow being mentioned in the model thread. It's way too early for that nonsense.
I remember in late October snow being on the ground for nearly 24hrs in High Wycombe. I think early 2000s ?
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10.5c 120mm
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None to shabby for 7th september
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Nope