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stewfox

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    February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

     

    CET averages and extremes for February

     

    The following data include all CET values from 1981-2023. Warmest 15 in bold type. Middle 14 values italic and coldest 14 are underlined. 

    The data have been converted to v2.0.1.0 in each case. The ties mentioned are only ties in one decimal, and the actual ranks in the CET v2.0.1.0 table are based on second decimal values. After the group at 6.3 C (incl 2014), only 1981-2022 values are listed without ranks, earlier years could be tied, until colder than 1.2  C when the longer term records are once again mentioned for coldest values. Only 1986 was colder in the recent past. 

     

    12.8 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

     7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779

     7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869

     7.3 ... third warmest month of Feb 1990 

     7.2 ... tied fourth warmest month of Feb 1794, 1998

     7.1 ... tied sixth warmest month of Feb 1903, 1945

     7.0 ... eighth warmest 2002

     6.9 ... tied ninth warmest 1867, 1872, 1961, 2019, 2022

     6.8 ... tied 14th warmest 1739, 1914, 1926

     6.7 ... tied 17th warmest 1702, 1750, 1997

     6.6 ... 20th warmest 1790

     6.5 ... tied 21st warmest 1815, 1918, 1995, 2011, 2020, 2023

     6.4 ... tied 27th warmest 1732, 1734, 1817, 1826, 1846, 1850

     6.3 ... tied 33rd warmest 1822, 1868, 2014

     6.2 ... 2000, 2017

     6.1 ... most recent 1943

     6.0 ... 1989, 2007

     5.9 ... most recent 1946

     5.8 ... most recent 1980

     5.7 ... most recent 1966

     5.6 ... 2008

     5.5 ... most recent 1974

     5.4 ... 1992, 2004

     5.3 ... 1999, 2021

     5.2 ... most recent 1977 ... warmest 30-year average 1994-2023, 5.20

     5.1 ... 2016 ... also 2001-2023 average (5.14)

     5.0 ... most recent 1789 ... 1991-2020 average (4.97 v2.0.1.0, was 4.9 in CET legacy)

     4.9 ... 1988  

     4.8 ... 1982

     4.7 ... 1993

     4.6 ... most recent 1976

     4.5 ... most recent 1975

     4.4 ... most recent 1962 ... 1981-2010 average

     4.3 ... 2001, 2005, 2009 ... and 1971-2000 average (was 4.2 in CET legacy)

     4.2 ... 2015 

     4.1 ... most recent 1960 ... 1901-2000 average (was 4.0 in CET legacy)

     4.0 ... 2012  ... and mean for 1801-1900

     3.9 ... 2003, 2006 and mean for 1659-2023 (all 365 years) -- 3.92  

     3.8 ... most recent 1934 ... 1961-1990 average (unchanged from CET legacy) and mean for 1701-1800  

     3.7 ... most recent 1951

     3.6 ... 1987

     3.5 ... 1984

     3.4 ... 2013

     3.3 ... most recent 1924

     3.2 ... 1994

     3.1 ... 2018

     3.0 ... 1981

     2.9 ... 2010 ... and mean for 1659-1700

     2.8 ... most recent 1978 ... 2.7 most recent 1818, 2.6 most recent 1954

     2.5 ... 1996 and coldest 30-year mean (1670 to 1699) ((2.55 rounded down (2.547)) 

     2.4 ... most recent 1847, 2.3 most recent 1901

     2.2 ... 1985

     2.1 ... most recent 1821, 2.0 most recent 1721, 1.9 most recent 1968

     1.8 ... 1983

     1.7 ... most recent 1860

     1.6 ... t42nd coldest 1991

     1.5 ... most recent 1902 ... 1.4 most recent 1814 ... 1.3 most recent 1979 (30th coldest)

     1.2 ... 1755, 1955 t28 coldest

     1.1 ... in v2.0.1.0, the "missing CET" closest to the median of all months (would be 27th coldest if it happens before anything colder)

     1.0 ... 1663, 1665, 1670, 1691, 1969 t23rd coldest

     0.9 ... 1845, 1917 t21st coldest

     0.8 ... 1795 (20th coldest)

     0.7 ... 1827 (19th coldest)

     0.6 ... 1853 (18th coldest)

     0.5 ... 1695, 1697, 1698 (t15th coldest)

     0.4 ... 1765, 1785, 1838, 1929 (t11th coldest)

     0.1 ... 1942 (tenth coldest)

     0.0 ... 1692 (ninth coldest)

    -0.2 ... 1956 (eighth coldest)

    -0.7 ... 1963 (seventh coldest)

    -1.0 ... tied fifth coldest month of Feb, 1684 and coldest in recent years 1986

    -1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740

    -1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855

    -1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895

    -1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

    -2.9 ... running CET by 23rd 1855 (!!)

    -4.4 ... running CET by 14th 1895 (!!) (was -3.0 tied with 1855 to 22nd)

    -6.3 ... coldest week 6-12 Feb 1895

    -8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

    (1947 was like Dec 1890 only the coldest running CET on last day of month; the coldest January 1795 somewhat similar as 1814 colder 10th-24th and again 27th-28th, tied 29th, but 1795 did hold top spot 4th-9th, 25th-26th and 30th-31st). 

    Before 1895 (8th-21st) and 1855 (tied 22nd, coldest 23rd-27th), 1956 (1st-4th) and 1830 (5th-7th) held the lead in coldest running Feb CET. The coldest leap year February with daily data was 1956 but 1740 was considerably colder. 

    For warmest running Feb CET, it was 1923 (1st-2nd), 2004 (3rd-8th), 1869 from 9th to 22nd, then 1779 led on 24th, was tied with 1869 on 23rd and 25th and took again 26th-28th. As neither were leap years, 1872 had the highest running mean for 1st-29th (6.9 C) but would have been easily beaten out if 1st March of 1869 or 1779 were the 29th of Feb. 

    Interesting fact: longest interval with no subzero February is not recent, it was the 114 consecutive years 1741 to 1854. The current streak is 37 years (1987 to 2023). But other longer streaks include 1685 to 1739 (55 years, but 1692 was 0.0, so 47 years if you count 1693 to 1739), 1856 to 1894 (39 years), and 1896 to 1946 (51 years). The shortest return of a subzero February was 1963 relative to 1956, and closely followed by 1956 relative to 1947. The longest absence of a 2.0 or colder February is recent, 1994 to 2023 (30 years). Before that, the longest absence of a 2.0 or colder February was 18 years (1796 to 1813) ... however 2.0 was the lowest value between 1699 and 1739, so the longest streak of Februaries failing to go below 2.0 is that interval of 41 years. It will be intact until at least 2034. 

    _____________________________________________________________________________________

    Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Wednesday 31st January,

    or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Saturday 3rd February. Good luck!

    ______________________________________________________________________________________

     

    EWP Precip contest

     

    Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above --

     

    Wettest Feb ... ... ... 169.5 mm (2020)

    former record was ... ... 158.6 mm (1833)

    former recent max was 143.2 mm (1990)

    1994-2023 avg ... 75.0 mm (now highest running 30-yr avg) _ despite 2023 being dry, 1993 was 2.7 drier.

    1993-2022 avg ... 74.9 mm (was highest running 30-yr avg)

    ____ 1922-1951 avg ... 71.9 mm (was a secondary max)

    1991-2020 avg ... 72.4 mm

    1981-2010 avg ... 66.5 mm

    all data 1766-2023 avg 65.5 mm 

    1777-1806 avg ... 54.3 mm (lowest running 30-yr avg)

    ___ ___ 1959-1988 avg 60.6 mm (secondary min)

    __ recent min ... 13.8 mm (1993) _ 2023 was 16.5 mm

    Driest Feb ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 mm (1891)

    ____________________________________________________________

    2023 _16.5 mm ... ... 2022 _104.4 mm ... ... 2021 _ 78.9 mm ... ... 2020 _169.5 mm ... ... 2019 _ 54.2 mm

    2018 _ 52.8 mm ... ... 2017 _ 72.0 mm ... ...  2016 _ 80.0 mm ... ... 2015 _ 59.3 mm ... ... 2014 _136.7 mm

    2013 _ 48.3 mm ... ... 2012 _ 32.1 mm ... ... 2011 _ 81.2 mm ... ... 2010 _ 87.2 mm ... ... 2009 _ 60.9 mm

    2008 _ 40.2 mm ... ... 2007 _111.6 mm ... ... 2006 _ 57.7 mm ... ... 2005 _ 46.2 mm ... ... 2004 _ 50.2 mm

    2003 _ 38.8 mm ... ... 2002 _ 115.1 mm ... ... 2001 _ 105.3 mm ... ... 2000 _ 95.1 mm ... ... 1999 _ 50.0 mm

    ======================================================================

    Combine your predictions and edit up to deadline as you wish.

    __ Good luck !! __

    Feb 86 not Feb 87 surely re sub 0 Jan 87 was cold 

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by stewfox

    Does look like the models have taken a massive shift away from any pro longed cold. This has been a long chase.Going to be the usual 

    Teleconnections are rubbish

    Told you this wouldn't happen in early December 

    Winters over

    FI is always 72hrs away

    Blame my mother in law

    Type posts 

    We are organising a group hug at 12 noon if you need it.

    Would be funny if the GFS ,EcM UKMO shifted the other way today.

    Screenshot_20240113_093546_Google.jpg

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Tamara said:

    With the atmosphere now very tightly coupled to El Nino, +ve AAM westerly wind burst anomalies propagating from tropical convection traversing the tropics to the Pacific either usually manifest in

    A) downstream blocking patterns across Europe in stable Annular Mode patterns (and other countervailing aspects that discourage poleward momentum transport)

    or,

    B) close to Iceland and Southern Greenland as under the present destabilised polar field and as assisted by E QBO Brewer Dobson circulation of tropical tropospheric air that ascends the stratosphere and augments poleward propagation of extra tropical +ve torque mechanisms and hence perturb the polar field and lead to an HLB outcome.

    So though this is a deliberately generalised categorisation (and each situation has to be taken on its own merits)  - as already indicated, clearly this winter is meeting criteria B.

    The present alert system seems well primed ahead of next weeks cold air advection. I cannot see this changing for a while yet based on, (and as my own little "at home" posts have been giving heads up for some time) there being still such an envelope of probabilistic outcomes for the first high impact weather zones and where the kayak procession first choose to navigate. 

    So next Monday then? 😎

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