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winterof79

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by winterof79

    9 minutes ago, The Northern Ramper said:

    Also looks good for NW England.

    Rain, sleet and snow on Tuesday, with travel disruption possible. Drier and sunnier on Wednesday. Cold with frost and ice.

    Met think so for lancs

    "Risk of some disruptive snow on Tuesday, before returning to more cold sunshine Wednesday."

    And yorks

    image.thumb.png.b02ca49fd74395d43eca65f93d11d056.png

     

    image.thumb.png.3d9e54d45dcdc5d0e64eac8b85c8e7f7.png

     

    We will see as the unstable cold gets going 

    • Like 1

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    It has the orographic adiabatic cooling in the trough hence the rain west of Pennines. As I mentioned this is definitely possible if the trough core is strong, however is the best case scenario for those over and to the east of the Pennines. If the trough is less defined we'll get full snow showers off the Irish sea potentially confined to over Pennines and into low level NW England.

    Streamers or trough a nice position to be in both have their dangers.Maybe streamers then trough as you say Sunday should nail it

    Trough strength

    Streamer placement

     

    • Like 5

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Looking more likely now that an active trough will push into Northern England on Monday night to produce snow showers on it's front into low level parts of NW England / NW Midlands before an active core with heavier and more persistent precipitation moves into central areas of northern England. On the lead a complete below freezing sounding means locally significant accumulations to lower levels are possible between the NW coast and Staffordshire. As the heavier core makes progress there is the potential for a mild sector to raise the snow line to the west of the Pennines in particular, with orographically lead adiabatic low level dewpoint cooling reducing this risk to the east of the Pennines. There is uncertainty with regards to the extent of this mild sector therefore the extent accumulations to low levels to the west of the Pennines within the trough core is uncertain. A stronger concensus should be reached by tomorrow evening. 

    The longevity of the system is also uncertain. On some model output a slow moving front could produce 20cm+ >250m over the central Pennine region. Other output keeps such core significantly weaker which would limit snowfall. Uppers of -3/-4C in the mild sector support snowfall down to 250/350m with potential for lower in evaporative cooling. Again this is likely to change. Low level areas should look for a reduction in the trough signal for less marginality like shown on the ECM. More certainty on the main core tomorrow evening.

     

     

    UKMO got it i believe

    animomo3.gif

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Joking aside, it’s become a feature of breakdowns over the past decade that they don’t bring a transitional snow event further south. Maybe I don’t recall all the fails of my youth but I’m sure it was a thing in the olden days! 

    Same up here Blue i noticed that but this time hopefully ,as the Met allude to,the transition is slow.

    "Whilst conditions should gradually turn milder, this transition brings the chance of spells of snow."

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by winterof79

    7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    I wished I wouldn't have said anything about the met insider information now 🤣

    Let's be honest here if it's solid there may be a little alteration too the 1st part of the update.. but I very much doubt the 2nd part would be altered at all! Not unless the likes of Glosea have had a massive climbdown overnight.

    And keep in mind how often have we had people in the past say they've got a friend at Dominoes who knows a council figure for the gritting service, and they've been told to stock up big time on grit this year 🤣

    And mogreps does look cold out till next weekend and let's be honest so much is subject to change at this range as we've seen with the models over the last several days!

    But I tell you what if this bloke is lying he's being unfollowed 🤣

    I'll 👽follow him but not on twitter.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
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