[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

25 minutes ago, jmp223 said:

No offence but that looks like a three year old just took a crayon to the map.

 

 

 

Hence the name Spaghetti

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Icon 6z looks more promising all be it only out to day 5..im scratching my head as to the direction of travel tbh. It appears the models continue to struggle here and I'm not sure any outcome today will set the tone for next week.

Just to mention I've just been tweeted by someone claiming he as a good friend at the met and they are gonna be calling milder air talking over later next week! So that would be a climbdown! Not sure of his credentials but the 3pm update could be telling.

Sorry chart attached is the gfs.

Probably will get milder compared to what we will get up to next weekend Matt before reamplification

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

GEFS slowly getting colder but its like pulling teeth with GFS

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Net wx cup first round first half.

 

COLD 1 MILD 0 

Scorer: Arctic 18mins

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

It doesn't work like that:

σ = √(∑(x−¯x) ( x − x ¯ ) 2 /n)

where n = observation total and x are the data values.

They probably do not show the ens runs outside the standard deviation as they are outliers but show the op/control as a point of reference to determine if it is or is not a statistic anomaly.

Here's a meteorological term wtf

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The settling snowline was 50m and 5 miles inland.

Looking forward to your forecasts next  week mate as situations show their hand.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Here's a Meteociel look at how the ECM mean has done for the famed 15th January, comparing the mean at D10 with this morning's op, which is now D4:

 

That's absolutely brilliant.

I did the same with GFS  from 6th Jan which was also very good.If only people would read between the lines at general trends an not the vaguries of each run

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, frosty ground said:

The PS is my point.

you called 20cm of snow from a setup where the raw data didn’t show 20cm of snow.

today your calling dry from the raw data when we all know that features can and will pop up. Even thou snow is shown of the raw output across the models.

 

Isn't weather just great.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

24 minutes ago, bradymk said:

UKV has an organised area of snow moving through Northern Ireland and into NW England late Monday. It then looks to pivot slightly and moves into N England and into Ireland during the night.

Pressure is also lower on UKV at 120 than compared to both ECM and GFS. It has the 1011mb contour through the midlands at +120 whereas GFS has 1019mb.

Thought UKV did well with the recent cold pool that crossed Southern areas this week so worth adding it into the mix the next few days for the initial northerly hit.

Luurvely ...for some but there will be many pop up surprises

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I have corrected myself 

Slack flows and breathe

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That cold spell was a short easterly blast followed by a kind of cold zonality with low pressure interacting withe the cold air.  No streamers coming off the Irish sea during that spell.

Jan 4-6 2010 you did an article on it for netwx 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Weather-history said:

That cold spell was a short easterly blast followed by a kind of cold zonality with low pressure interacting withe the cold air.  No streamers coming off the Irish sea during that spell.

I have corrected myself 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I don't think there was any such streamer in early 2009. 

Sorry 2009/10 memory going but i didn't dream it.Regulary through into Feb

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Early 2009 many occasions occurred of slack dense cold over UK.Streamers set up dumping 9" snow regularly off the Irish Sea through Lancs into Yorks.

Chart not exactly to the day but you get my gist

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

For 8 days of very cold weather that is very poor snow coverage.

Never known any chart to verify with slack dense cold over us,ever.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You’re going to have disturbances popping up with low heights over the UK .

I remember the last time we saw a slack cold flow and there was a lot of moaning that it would be dry and it turned out there were some surprises.

Praise the Lord

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

11 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I guess you are not believing in this?

 This has snow in Scotland and Northern Ireland basically everywhere. South of the m4 basically everywhere and down the north west.

There will be streamers off the Irish sea which output cannot detect so far out.Do we never learn to get a cold pool in first.

8 minutes ago, saintkip said:

What he means is fry for him, looks good for us

As in "Fry crisp and dry"

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

46 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Would please many people. North, south, east and west.

Instability off warmer seas

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

20 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Another morning another load of daft over reactions to a jaffa cakes poor GFS and then comes the ECM to tell people to relax the winter cold is coming and always has been coming! See you for the 12z

Thank god someone else reads it like that.We were doing post mortems earlier and looking to February.Very cold next week and impossible to predict snowfall yet.

And slack does NOT mean no snow with very cold air off the Irish sea

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, Gowon said:

The GFS ends with a potential BFTE again:

Never

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

My back garden drivers are telling me January 26th for a convective Easterly.

The canoes have set off from Eastern sea board and tell me depending on shuffling high and currents 25th looks good.

Easy peasy this forecasting lark

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

48 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Used to be the case with the likes of Shropshire, Birmingham, Leictester getting all the snow in these setups. But in recent years it has been Central UK like Leeds, Sheffield, Halifax, Doncaster getting all the snow.

Let it come North dump over Yorkshire and get shoved back south and dump on everyone else.Spread the joy.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

For anyone interested this was GFS output 6th Jan for the 15th

Vs todays 12z for the same date.

Trends are your friends in between wobbles

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

Yeah, didn't want to go there though as it might have been morning when she started typing...!

Ha ha yes....

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

29 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

Sorry, Tamara, you're wrong. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's "Bom dia a todos".

Sorry, just an example of how a small detail can have a big knock on effect! (Relevant, eh?!)

But joking aside, that's a fantastic post, thank you for taking the time to write it and I hope you take my terrible joke as intended. 

 

Or "Boa Tarde" as its pm