Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?

winterof79

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,912

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by winterof79

    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Be aware MetO updates can be off the mark in the medium /long term - remember 2018/19 Winter, the cold that never transpired!

    I see Father Christmas didn't bring you a new cup to replace that leaky cup you've had for what seems like ages😄

    • Like 10

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    From looking at the latest output it does look like over the last 24 hours most models have moved away from the suggestion of a retrogressing high towards Greenland/Scandi later next week with perhaps deep cold and a more longer lasting cold spell.

    What we have instead is potentially a brilliant setup for Central UK, which there could be one or 2 big falls of snow even down to very low levels. The trade off is I think we lose the potential for one big long cold spell, with snow showers. Instead, we lose HLB and you would fancy some milder air to filter through at some time late next week. Not a guarantee but a good likelihood for most areas. Perhaps far NE holding onto colder air. For me this isn't too bad if you achieve some good snowfall(s) beforehand. And further cold or even HLB could just be around the corner after a brief lul anyway.

    Yes HLB to re establish to our NW at any opportunity as i have said previously.I favour slider gate as some have predicted with frequent disturbances swinging up into a very cold air mass and dragging in a NE feed as they move into the North Sea but at regular intervals.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

    Tuesday 9 th Jan

    NOAA 6-10==15-19th, in other words inside the approximate date of ‘deep’ cold predicted some time ago.the 6-10 chart keeps the meridional flow across the chart, the shape is not the classic one but no signal for a developing mobile Atlantic, not on the 8-14 really. As usual the high +ve anomaly is much reduced but this is normal. IF this persists and the upstream becomes less conducive to another trough-ridge downstream then a change could be signalled but not so far and the 8-14 takes us to 17-23rd Jan?

    ECMWF has never been as +ve about the deep cold scenario and its latest output for 15-19 Jan is pretty similar. The 850’s show the -5C extending during the period to cover all of the UK by the 15th then it is moved north again so that by the 19th is is predicted be N Wales to about the Wash area. This as the 500 flow backs more west or even south of west with time.

    UK Met of course only shows surface and 500MB outputs for 3 days (13-15 th) but it looks to be on the same page for just prior to the two above from the 15 th. Ridge dominated both 500 and surface, over/just NW of the UK to a more trough dominated by the end of its run, again surface and upper air.

    So overall then, after a temporary slight warming at the surface and height, over the weekend a deeper colder spell seem likely to occur. The direction of flow, initially, being N’ly not E’ly. Looking on Extra at the skew-T diagrams, the colder air seems to start arriving over Doncaster by 14 Jan and much colder air continues to advect into the area from a N’ly direction as far as the run goes=T+180. All the time with limited convection, to around 6000 ft. So even well inland it is ‘possible’ for snow to fall. This is way ahead of any reliability from the synoptic models so patience is needed as to just what will happen over the UK regarding snowfall. Be that from showers and any possible troughs in the flow or from the Atlantic trying to move in giving more general ppn.

    To me it seems unlikely that milder air is unlikely to make much, if any, real progress against the cold airmass in the period under discussion on this post.

    All really interesting though to see just how the actual weather will turn out.

    image.thumb.png.878cb4d7559bed1f2000f0655b93dadc.pngimage.thumb.png.2c532b124ff402b7c61dfea0099b5e83.pngimage.thumb.png.def730356f68731d530f4d054b172eff.png

    Thanks again John 

    A little rampathon detected.

    • Like 5
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    A clan of balanced views.

    I think Scott is on the right line.

    The early morning commentary is on every frame instead of letting the run come out before reacting.I know its peoples prerogative but it comes across as knee jerk and newbies reading it haven't a scooby wether ,it will or it won't, it's happening it isn't,its garbage its boom you get my drift.😘

    • Like 13

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    The GFS issue isn’t the Azores high, you clearly see the low spin up way before any interaction with the Azores high.

    you have shown three charts and claimed they show the same thing they certainly do not, thou the GEM and GFS are at least comparable 

     

    Not a reply to this post.....

    Can we make our minds up The Azores high is a semi permanent feature an Azores Low is not and i wish people would stop referring to the"Azores Low" it didn't emanate from there just passes by after filling a nad

    • Like 3
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MJB said:

    Yes if the cold is entrenched breakdown snow a possibility but the extended extended needs updating..............so far out these things can change, longevity of cold now in doubt 

    The breakdown if any should be short-lived as background drivers are ripe for re-amplification at any opportunity.

    • Like 10

    Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Friday 12 Jan - Sunday 21 Jan

    Mostly cloudy across the UK on Friday and Saturday. Some patchy light rain or drizzle is expected in places, although many areas will probably remain mainly dry. Winds will be light with temperatures likely to be a little below average. Through the rest of the weekend and into the start of the following week, it is likely to turn colder as northerly winds begin to develop across of the UK and bring a risk of snow showers, particularly across the north. There is also a smaller risk of a period of snow across some southern areas for a time. Through the rest of this period confidence is low, but there is an increased chance of more unsettled conditions spreading from the west.

    Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sun 7 Jan 2024

×
×
  • Create New...