[December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021]

2.9°C and 105mm

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Ah it's that time of year to say this until I'm blue in the face...Those "EC snow charts" are in no way representative of what the EC is actually showing. Temps and dew points both above freezing on that timeframe, it would be a load of cold rain. Whoever came up with the algorithm for those charts was clearly hunting for clicks, they were atrocious last winter.

Perhaps for the UK, yes, but to be fair they were extremely accurate for snow predictions here in Oslo.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

GFS definitely struggling again at the moment it seems with inter run variability - to add to this that damn M4 is playing up again.

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Truly astonishing charts at the moment, recorded an ice day in 2013 on the south coast so being two weeks earlier that isnt going to be a problem again now.

Look North-East, the frozen eagle is about to pounce again..

Looks like i've timed my return trip from snowy Oslo next wednesday perfectly!

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Nothing warm about 850s at 144 (UKMO) - fantastic to see you guys in the UK finally getting some luck this winter, definitely no worries about cold air to your east with -15 highs predicted here next week. 

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Whats extraordinary..

Is the normal canadian lump-load vortex' is our needle in the ar#e..

But given momentum and perfect placements!!..

Could be the ace card...-very unusual-..

And downwell/assortment are miraculously in euro plots/favour..

And the draw could be of out of usual thought fruition!!!

Lets see he's conclude though.

He-s held in high regard for he's dynamical decipher!!!!

All very very interesting!!!

Anyone got google translate?

By day 14 of todays 12z EPS were seeing signs of a Scandinavian block appearing, certainly a better picture than yesterdays day 15 - Hopefully its picking up on some amplitude which *hopefully* will gather pace in coming runs.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

1 minute ago, Danny* said:

Probably accurate, the South-East misses out again. 

On a serious note, I don't know what algorithms those charts use to determine snow accumulation but they definitely seem well "out there" compared to every other model in existence.

Not strictly UK related, but over the past month of snow here in Oslo they have performed to within an inch every time. 

ECM 168 seems to be pulling something else out the bag tonight, signs of our Scandi friend appearing.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Not that its worth overanalysing a 10 day chart but I think the 12 day wouldnt be that bad, push of heights from the atlantic the russian high nudging in over a sinking scandi trough. No denying that its a lot flatter than previous ECMs with our first signs of a more organised vortex though..

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Where approximately is that snow line bluearmy?

 

 

Ca. 7 inches for large parts of the south coast.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Very good 12z so far in my opinion, GFS is back up to last nights tricks of burying somewhere across the midlands..

 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z GFS at T150 is a little less amplified than the 06Z, which in turn was a little less amplified than the 0Z. Not at trend we want to see as we get closer to the reliable timeframe.

 

But let's see what the rest of the run brings...

Yes less amplifie but by 168 the heights are cut off around Greenland as opposed to shunted and sinking east like the 6z, so an upgrade in my opinion.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

The negative tilt of the high and the shortwaves coming out of America smell undercut to me.

I think the next few runs will show the high moving Northwards into Greenland as the shortwaves slide underneath the block - Unless of course we see a GFS classic overblowing the lows.

To be honest I think we've overcome the first hurdle now, but the look of 3 lows spinning around eachother in the Atlantic al la GFS seems unlikely to me, it never handles that kind of energy well. UKMO seems the better option keeping them split slightly. Think the trend so far is our friend, but i expect post 120hr improvements on successive GFS runs when it gets a handle on the atlantic lows..

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Been snowing in Oslo for the last 12 hours now (fourth snow event in the last 2 weeks), but just like Nick S I cannot keep my eyes off the UKs prospects!

6z certainly upping the stakes again, this is a remarkably close situation.

 

6z is similar to but also an improvement on the UKMO 168 chart.. A lot resting on the 12zs (...again..)

 

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18]

6 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

Here is the latest snow and ice chart and it looks like nearly all of Scandinavia is covered in snow.

 

Can confirm that, another 4" in Oslo today - Now raining and -0.7 after a low of -7.7 this morning! 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Certainly a better 12z coming in the shorter range, that low coming off America has slowed down significantly allowing cleaner Atlantic height rises - Even better is that its snowing here in Oslo..

 

UKMO looking worlds away from the GFS however, even better?

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Jaw dropping negative NAO here. Simply incredible chart,  cool days and frosty nights, and whats that lurking to drop down to the north...

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

For what its worth, UKMO D7 back the ECM with a more amplified US pattern than the GFS - would expect the GFS to find this solution over the next few runs.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Pretty good NH agreement between ec and gfs ops at day 9

Yep, and a freaky-large ridge over the near continent forming, the trend is our friend here especially for developments later into November. Though since my move to Oslo I might not be waiting quite so long..

 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

As wonderful as it is seeing precipitation charts for next weekend and the prospect of a few snow showers or even a trough, a quick reminder of what was showing for today, this time last week should be noted, to what is actually verifying. Take a look, given the fantastic inputs from the more knowledgable on here of the background signals, we stand our best shot at something to salvage this tease of a winter within the next few weeks... I look forward to comparing next Mondays output to what is currently progged by the models

 

 

 

 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

 

And so our Scandi high wheel of fortune spins to deliver at day 10 - Agree with what NS is saying, a little help from the MJO with an increasingly better upstream picture may eventually land us a bullseye...

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

UKMO @168 - Also a corker, low off the NW corner of spain, further east than the ECM so less chance of it swinging down to the azores a la ECM at 192, thus propping up our high.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Quick question to anyone, what is the 'GFS Legacy' option on the GEFS suite drop down bar? Is it the ENS of the para? cheers

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

GEFS 06z mean is far better than the 00z suite, and the control looking much more ECMesque with regards to our second shot at greenland height rises.

 

 

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but could our problems with the ECM actually start as early as T72/96hrs, with the placement of the 'supporting' low in the mid atlantic. 

 

 

Comparing the big three, ECM has the deepest and furtherest west of the lot, thus backing up what @Singularity proposed earlier about the 'over amplification' of the ECM, deeper low in a more S/SW position = more phasing with energy of the low running up greenland, and less so with the descending scandinavian low pressure - just a thought.

 

 

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

Even with 51 members, EC is going pedal to the metal with blocked Atlantic at 240 compared to the GFS.