-uksnow-
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Posts posted by -uksnow-
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UKMO goes the way of the ECM, more amplified than the GFS - this is far from resolved yet, I think it'll be tomorrow night or christmas day before we know how the low in the atlantic will behave.
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And so the drama is dragged out further, 18z 'revenge of the block'. The question is, is this an over-reaction to a slight change in jet angle, or the tomorrows trend?
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Fantastic GEFS mean at 192hrs, reflecting John Holmes' anomaly charts, gravity of high pressure around southern Norway. As far as we should be willing to look right now.
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What was that? The two biggest winters didnt start until after Xmas? Nothing to see here!
Enjoying the continuity of the GFS, makes up for the poor ECM outputs we've had to endure lately. Let's hope the more festive theme can be picked up more uniformly over the next couple of days..
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12z ecm ensembles for Zurich see a further lowering of the mean, and a nice clear cluster of colder runs gaining momentum as well...
Patience (Yes, more.)
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Pretty uninspring ECM mean tonight, but the spreads show the potential at 144-168 for a greater window of ridge building perhaps -
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22 minutes ago, fergieweather said:
Worth noting EC 12z deterministic and control sit in a cluster of.... just 5. Trend heads to slightly below average temperatures post-13th-ish onwards.
Hi Ian,
Any hint on whether that sits from Atlantic/Polar maritime or something more blocked?
Cheers
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Im going to try over the next few days, to look for those ensembles picking up a colder second half/ week 2 + 3 of december. Slightly flawed in that as far north as i can get the ECMWF ensembles is Zurich, but a downward trend there would at least indicate the chance of something more blocked and seasonal over us in the run up to Christmas..
Already, in my opinion, the number of colder runs is increasing post 13th/14th December.
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Evening everyone, long time no post -
Please someone correct me if I'm completely wrong, but i think i have just found public ECMWF ensemble data (freely available).
http://www.meteoguru.com/en/pro/ecmwf/?latlon=34.60,15.12
On the side panel where you can search for the city you would like ensembles for, select the city and click the ok button. Then, because for some reason you have to be at certain co-ordinates, drag the curser on the map to somewhere around the figure below:
Once the curser has been dropped around here, boom, you get your spaghetti ensemble forecasts, and now we can see why @bluearmy was talking about the control run....
Onto the 18z... Lets she what we have.
EDIT: Those are the 00z ensembles, not sure when it will update to 12z
EDIT 2: No, the dream is over, It says London on the graph but the Lat and Long remain on the placement of the curser - Nearest i can get the cursor to us is Switzerland, still, guess we can have a look at Eastern Europes cold instead then...
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- Popular Post
Im in awe at some of the reactions in here during the 12z's;
- We now have the potential for wednesdays snow into the 72hrs mark, something we've struggled to do the past two winters
- Both the GFS and UKMO agree on deep roughing setting up just to our east, bringing with it low thickness and sub -0 uppers
Often in these set ups particular snow events won't be picked up until 48-72hrs in advance, so those throwing toys out the pram because the snow is missing them by 50 miles at T156 hours is silly, sit back, relax and remember the trend is our friend, and thats a trend that today is still growing stronger for snow potential across vast swathes of the UK.
I for one am looking forward to this spell of weather whatever it brings in rainy old Cardiff, onwards to the GEFS and the ECM...
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Just to add my 2 pence to Catcol above:
Take a look at the GEFS 18z panel - this saga is far from resolved yet. For example, choosing a random point at 168 hours away i count exactly 10 ensembles leaving us in an easterly flow with developed heights to the NW or disrupting troughs over us and down into Europe
Similarly the control run introduces a similar theme right up to 192 hrs (Haven't bothered looking past that - i see very little point)
The spreads at 192 also back this up;
Huge spread over Scandinavia. Im far from saying this is going to go in a guaranteed direction, but its not over until the fat lady sings..
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Once again small steps from the 12z GFS building a stronger ridge ahead of the low exiting the eastern seaboard around 120 hours, moving to a more amplified solution.
6z
12z
A better link up of the American HP to the amplified azores HP.
Edit: Pictures won't post!
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Well the racing is all over, got to watch it all working piste security was great'
Far more snow has fallen than forecast, with only 5-10 forecast at town level (800m) where as there is over 20cm level in the village with well over 30 level at 1500 where I was based today. Hoping for totals to exceed forecasts tomorrow aswell.
Seems temperatures will rise in the alps by the end of the week, but not before some very cold days on Tuesday on Wednesday.
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Little update - snowing heavily - models look good for more snow widespread over the alps for Sunday/Monday and into next week, particularly Switzerland/Italy doing well this season!
Look out for me with an orange jacket on the side of the piste tomorrow, working piste security for the races!
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Fantastic conditions today, continued snowing overnight up the top bringing the base to 1m - lovely cold conditions today.
International ski teams were out practicing today, shared chairlifts with Austrian, French and American teams, hard life eh?
Keeping it a little but more on topic, Fridays snowfall seems to be some what downgraded (again) with only 5-10cm forecast in te valley (Carinthian correct me if I'm wrong?) followed by more on Sunday and Monday, just glad pressure is finally falling over Europe after the high pressure fest, long may it continue!
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Thought I'd mention I'm doing a season in Kitzbuhel this winter, snow up until now has been shoddy to say the least! Had around 20cm+ up top today and still snowing with the snow line finally moving down to the village in the last couple of hours, slushy covering of around a centimetre. Good dumping expected on Friday, will also post pictures of the hanenkahm I took tonight, tomorrow!
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Another first today, FI snow for the south!
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Its Mark Vogan i know, but hes going for colder and snowier W Europe this winter.
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Pub run ensembles once again deliver a fair number of options putting a halt to the Atlantic train in FI - several Greeny highs aswell. Watch this space?
~I fully understand the caveats of watching ensembles seeing how they flipped last winter, but seeing these options pop up makes me far more hopeful for a change in the pattern come mid november!
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Early days yet but at 192 of the GEFS 8/21 pertubations bring a return to northern blocking with some ridging to Greenland, one to watch?
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I don't think the cold will come to November tbh. We are having a very slow start
Is this a wind up?!
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It's extremely promising to see theme of sliding lows cropping up already, great ECM.
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CFS 12z anomalies charts not going for cold in November but is going for a pretty cold and blocked winter and even staying cooler into spring
height anomalies
cfsnh-4-11-2013.pngcfsnh-4-12-2013.pngcfsnh-4-1-2014.pngcfsnh-4-2-2014.pngcfsnh-4-3-2014.pngcfsnh-4-4-2014.pngtemp anomalies
cfsnh-8-11-2013.pngcfsnh-8-12-2013.pngcfsnh-8-1-2014.pngcfsnh-8-2-2014.pngcfsnh-8-3-2014.pngcfsnh-8-4-2014.pngYes, strong signal for a scandi high and undercutting lows on this run - Lovely.
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Please not that saga again! We shall see.