-uksnow-
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Posts posted by -uksnow-
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Can't post link but the UKMO 12Z has rain/snow over coastal areas from Dorset west on Saturday morning. Feeling like a rerun of March 11th!
Has it further east than that!
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hi perfect
i am looking for something warmer in the charts at present
not having much joy at the moment
'Hi perfect'
sounds like a cheesy chat up line, something your not telling us John
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06z ensembles continue the slow rise through the next 2 weeks and get to around average by April 13th
The positive continues to be the lack of rain fall giving places a chance to dry out once again
The ECM Birmingham ensemble shows the average temperature slowly rising between April 1st and April 11th averaging from 6c to 9c by the 11th still well below the seasonal average of around 12c but better than what we've had
The Average low also rises slowly ranging from -1c on Monday to 3c by the 11th the seasonal average is 4c
As per the GFS ensembles precipitation is below average right through April 8th when it hits average the 9th to 11th it goes just 1mm above average
However Gavin, a couple of days ago i noted that the mean didn't reach -5 until the 5th of April, and now it doesnt rise above it until the 7th of April, arguably even the 8th.
There's no doubt in my mind that the cold is being extended day by day, the only reason the mean really does rise is the scatter caused by FI as were never going to get strong agreement post 168 hrs imo. I just wonder how long it can really go on for...!
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For those of you starting your Bank Holiday weekend early...........................Happy Easter
Check out this little fella, hatched about 3 minutes ago!
We have another 7, with another two eggs 'pipped' (started hatching) so I'll upload a nicer one later on today when they're all dried out
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Wow whiteout again, doesn't wanna stop here lol.
Take some pics!
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Updated 120hr fax
How much further can it get in..
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ECM next 6 days uppers inc today
-10c
-10c
-9c
-9c
-8c
-9c
-8c - with PPN moving up from the SW
http://www.meteociel...M1-144.GIF?26-0
S
S
Steve,
Would this produce a thames streamer of sort?
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Under she goes...
Amazing.
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Is this condusive of a Thames Streamer?
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Not sure if already posted but..
Updated 72hr fax
Compared to this mornings 84hr (for same time period)
Ditched the idea of the triple point and instead have two seperate fronts, hard to tell whether these may swing enough for a dusting, have to wait and see, but interesting none the less.
Also the trough Ian commented on yesterday about not having much support is back, and is flirting with the far SE Thursday lunchtime
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Not sure if already posted but..
Updated 72hr fax
Compared to this mornings 84hr (for same time period)
Ditched the idea of the triple point and instead have two seperate fronts, hard to tell whether these may swing enough for a dusting, have to wait and see, but interesting none the less.
Also the trough Ian commented on yesterday about not having much support is back, and is flirting with the far SE Thursday lunchtime
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Not sure if already posted but..
Updated 72hr fax
Compared to this mornings 84hr (for same time period)
Ditched the idea of the triple point and instead have two seperate fronts, hard to tell whether these may swing enough for a dusting, have to wait and see, but interesting none the less.
Also the trough Ian commented on yesterday about not having much support is back, and is flirting with the far SE Thursday lunchtime
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This time the ECM Birmingham ensemble is updated and there isn't much change from my post on the last page
A slow but steady rise from next week if nothing else we are going the right direction
From April 1st to April 9th the average high is 7c to 10c (compared to 3c to 5c from today till Easter Sunday) still below the average of around 12c but better than the past 2 weeks
The average low increases as well from April 1st to April 9th the average low is 0c rising to 3c the average is 4c (compared to a low of -3c on the 28th)
Rainfall is running at below or bang on average till April 5th even after this it only gets 1mm above average for a few days before falling to average again on the 9th
So this bitter cold is on its final legs now with a relaxation in temperatures from next Monday and after what we've had lately many will be more than happy to see this rise even though its still below average given any sunshine it would feel pleasant providing the winds fall light
Bitter cold on its last legs?!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=250&ext=1&y=40&run=6&runpara=0
Ens say differently, mean doesnt get above -5 850hpa until the 5th of April!
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well that didnt last!
Signal for the SE trough is only meaningful in UKMO-GM, but that's being followed for FAX at that timeframe currently... just in case.
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hi uk
backs up the ukmo charts from earlier
Evening John,
Yep, preferebly would like to see it 50 miles further north and 50 miles further west as it'll be being dragged E away into the continient with the departing LP, will it not?
God im picky
Ah blast,
John, fergie just replied to my post in the mod thread which was the same as my one in here saying
Signal for the SE trough is only meaningful in UKMO-GM, but that's being followed for FAX at that timeframe currently... just in case.
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ECM showing perhaps something for Cornwall, and a dusting over the south coast
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Trough in the flow on 72hrs fax chart
threat of snow for home counties, SE and EA?
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Trough in the flow on 72hrs fax chart
threat of snow for home counties, SE and EA?
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Ecm has gone off on one in my opinion yet it still looks very good for cold and snow!!expect it to come in line again tomorrow!!winter continues!!
Lets just see where it sits in the ens - i suspect the mean wont show a similar output.
Anyhoo, looking a bit closer ahead in the time frame, anyone spot the trough on the 72hr fax?
Perhaps bringing the threat of snow to the home counties, the SE and EA
One to watch
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Please someone correct me if im wrong, but doesnt the 12z ECM introduce the ppn quite far in
Taking its view at 96hrs the position of the low
and comparing it too the March 11th snow event that put 5-10cm across parts of the south (6cm IMBY)
I appreciate that low was 6mb deeper, but the one projected for later this week is slightly further north?
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Odd, theres snow flakes blowing in the wind! Where they come from??
I've had that yesterday and today, so light the radar wouldnt have picked it up, perhaps an explanation is that snowflakes can travel around 25 miles from where they left the cloud before reaching the ground, and takes them up to one hour!
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Absolutely baking bloody freezing here today!
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1.3 Degrees
-2.5 windchill
Apparant temp: -3.3
DP: -3.8
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Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
ECM mean @240 is one for the archives surely, whole country apart from the far south western tip of the UK in -5 uppers as the mean
Incredible